Many people think non-legal tenders and/or obsolete currency that were once legal tenders should be measured based on its popularity as a collectible. While this assertion is partly true, one should not negate the time value money principles that partly determine the value of such collectibles. All money issued by governing authorities had some type of value as the issuing government controlled the economic resources that made such currency hold value. What I find frequently more valuable are denominations that had so much purchasing power at the time when it was in full circulation that hardly anyone used them because they were usually instruments of the rich. These were the days when people actually transacted with paper money without the convenience of computerized banking. While a large number of retail collectors focus on collectible cards, the banknotes and coins market have grown tremendously over the last ten years. 

For example, many World War I and World War II banknotes that used to be bought in bundles of 100 for five to ten dollars are now selling for a few hundred each. The Japanese invasion money that use to be dirt cheap now are commanding high premiums due to their historical value. They also had high time value of money value as they were once “legal tenders” on Japanese occupied territories. Goods and services were literally siphoned out of the occupied economies through the printing of these notes. Although they are viewed as worthless from a value retention standpoint at the time of issue by the occupied locals, they were nevertheless the authoritative medium of exchange for at least a few years. People who like currency tend to be older and typically with more disposable income. Many of these people are history buffs. The prototypical younger generation of collectors who are adults usually have graduated from post-secondary institutions and likely have obtained advanced degrees. Most people at banknotes and coin shows are much more affluent than the average card collector who does not also collect banknotes and coins. It is very routine that thousands of dollars are spent by a single person who attends these shows. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Best ROI in collectible coins and banknotes/paper money right now.

The other side of this is banknotes and coins are in essence money hence liquidity is usually not an issue. Unlike other collectibles, many US old currencies regardless whether they are coins or banknotes are actually still legal tenders. Many banks also exchange old currencies at stated exchange rates set by the issuing authorities when it is legal to do so. The thing with money is, even the obsolete ones, they had some type of value point in time and for this banknote or coin to be in the hands of a collector, someone had to defer enjoyment of the purchasing power which usually need to be compensated for by the market. Hence this is exactly why the value of obsolete currency are based on deferred economic value. This logic is in line with business professors getting some of the highest salaries in academia because if they took their talents to the industry they can make XYZ amount therefore to ensure these talents stay in academia, institutions had to provide a compensation that take into account the opportunity costs these individuals forgo by taking years to obtain a PhD and another few years to be fully tenured etc. I believe the next big wave in collectibles will likely happen in the banknotes and coins industry as AI help the previously education deficient individuals obtain knowledge on the cheap equalizing whatever inequality they believe they were dealt with by the system. 

This market is also not very comp oriented with almost little technological development in this field. All the pricing apps and listing apps either do not really exist or barely exist in this industry right now. People still use catalogs to price items. Basically there are very little speculation in this market right now. I believe this will change within the next decade or so especially when physical money will be issued less and less by the issuing authorities and people rarely see paper money in an increasingly cashless society. Cash won’t go away completely as it has its purpose, however, physically money will likely be used less and less. What this simply means from a supply and demand side is less and less paper money will be in circulation, financial institutions will likely increase the cost of providing cash to customers upon request and cash will slowly but surely be hoarded by collectors and opportunists as well as various institutions. The end result of all of this is less cash for the collectors, higher rates of circulated currency versus brand new currency in mint condition and higher demand for paper money as a collector item. There will also be a large number of privacy conscious people who will want to hold their own stash of cash for their own convenience. Governments may also be phasing out or discontinuing certain denomination of currency as inflation catch up with the production cost. All in all, the more people are pushed to use something, the limited supply of something else that is both collectible and functional will likely significantly rise in value due to higher demand. I personally believe right now the best values are in the fractional currencies that are over 150 years old selling like they are toilet paper right now at a few dollars each at wholesale. 

Think about it this way, 25 cents in 1862 worth in purchasing power is worth near $10 dollars today just based on inflation. If someone had invested 25 cents in 1862 into the stock market or bought a fraction of an acre of land with it, that investment on average is probably worth tens of thousands of dollars today. What is more ridiculous is that many of these fractional notes can be bought at wholesale for a few dollars depending on condition. This valuation is in total conflict and very disrespectful of time value of money. I believe this market is currently not very market m-oriented and present many arbitrage opportunities. Fractionals are technically still legal tender. The blue seal silver certificates are grossly undervalued too often only cost marginally more than the face value of a dollar bill. Many of these bills are consecutive, radar numbered and/or star notes. These also do not seem to go for much of a premium which is quite baffling. What is also to know is many US states have passed laws that repealed sales taxes on coins, currency and investment-grade precious metals that are purchased at the retail level which will lower the transaction cost for collectors and investors on these asset classes.

As I had mentioned before the FIFA 2026 tournament started that I believe Ronaldo, not Messi will be the GOAT or at least a Co-GOAT. If you follow sports you know most fans love the underdog story especially when that underdog becomes the GOAT. Ronaldo, coming from absolute abject poverty whereas Messi was born into a relatively well-off family. Ronaldo single handler turned Portugal into a football superpower. Messi and Argentina not winning the 2026 World Cup despite all the controversy will likely diminish Messi’s GOAT myth for good especially because the 2030 World Cup will be at least partly hosted by Portugal and there is likely little to no chance Ronaldo is going to miss the opportunity to play on the same national team as his son in his home country where he is the undisputed greatest Portugal player of all time and most likely the most famous Portuguese person in modern times. Ronaldo scored in each of the consecutive six World Cups that he lead Portugal finishing no less than the 20th place achieving 4th place in 2006. Before Ronaldo, Portugal had never play in more than one World Cup in a row, failed to qualify for 14 World Cups and played in only three World Cups before Ronaldo was part of its senior national team. The crazy thing is Ronaldo could actually play in eight World Cups because Portugal automatically qualify for the 2030 World Cup as a co-host country and the 2034 World Cup is held in Saudi Arabia which Ronaldo played years of football at and still plays there to this day. 

I have high confidence Ronaldo will have at least a more than outside chance of playing in that World Cup given his conditioning, discipline and the fact that he will still be in his forties which for Ronaldo is definitely possible even at a reduced role as a reserve or a player-manager. If he does play in that World Cup, he will be breaking many records that will likely not be broken for years to come. Unfortunately for Messi, once he and Argentina lost this World with all the controversies involving them and given where the next two World Cups will be held, there really isn’t that much motivating Messi to attend anymore World Cups though I think he may attend the 2030 World Cup. Also, in most sports, the most important record is typically the ones revolving around offense. And out of all the offensive records, the most desirable and most watched over record in almost every single sports is the total points record be it home runs, hits, points in basketball, goals in hockey or touchdowns in American gridiron football. At this point, Ronaldo’s points record is basically untouchable. Frankly speaking, Ronaldo is a physical specimen who can physically play competitive football at the highest levels for at least one more decade. I can’t say the same about Messi.

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Cristiano Ronaldo is the new GOAT.

When Messi was born in the last 1980s, Argentina’s economy in terms of GDP was ranked 16th largest in the world with 30+ million in population. Conversely, when Ronaldo was born the mid 1980s, Portugal’s GDP was ranked 117th in the world with 10+ million in population. Argentina now has nearly 50 million in population now whereas Portugal stayed at around 10+ million population. Argentina still have about 40% higher GDP numbers than Portugal at the moment. Before Messi became the face of Argentina football, there was Maradona and other legends who won two World Cups before Messi. While Portugal has great legends as well, Ronaldo is the greatest player from Portugal ever. Under Ronaldo, Portugal has consistently became a top five to ten team in the world with its highest ranking being number three. Argentina is thirty times larger than Portugal in landmass and one of the most resource rich countries in the world while Portugal is one of the poorest countries in the OECD and the Eurozone. A country that was colonized and subjugated by Africans, Middle Easterns and European powers for centuries. Although Portugal is in Europe and Argentina is in South America, Portugal appears to be much more tolerable of minorities than the historical policies of Argentina and its predominately Caucasian population on a continent that are predominately Hispanics of mixed descendent. I think the bottomline is Messi has almost zero chance being the GOAT now given his recent performance and the fact that in at least a large number of people’s minds Maradona is the GOAT of Argentina football. 

Many people still believe Pele is the GOAT of South American football which also means Messi is not universally deemed the best player on his own continent. Ronaldo on the other hand is the unquestionable GOAT of Portugal football by the widest possible margin and the undisputed GOAT of European football, literally where all the best players play at the club level and where the best leagues are located. I genuinely thought if Messi and Argentina had won this World Cup, however controversial, would give Messi the GOAT lead. The funny thing is Argentina was actually ranked the number one team in the world just before the 2026 World Cup championship game. Considering Messi plays in the US MLS league and he is generally much more popular than Ronaldo in the US may have greatly diminished his greatness. Messi is definitely a GOATesque player, however, he really did not have much World Cup championship success until winning in the 2022 World Cup against his own teammates from France. I think the history book may question his Pandemic era win and win over a very close match against his teammates as a possible fluke at best. Given Messi’s current age and the locations of the next two World Cup, I think most likely Messi will be a strong and one of the leading candidates in the GOAT conversation but will most definitely not be the definitive GOAT. Not winning more than one World Cup and not getting the most important records like the goals basically will make his GOAT status almost indefensible plus his cultural impact was not greater than Pele nor Maradona. Ronaldo on the other hand is a legitimate folk hero who also happens to be extremely GOAT like. In ten years from now, who you think will get the GOAT treatment? I personally think Ronaldo’s rookie cards are between somewhat and slightly undervalued. I think the better play from a collectible cards standpoint while acting on this trend is buying Ronaldo Jr’s rookie base and rookie chase cards. These cards are extremely undervalued at the moment. 

The 2030 World Cup will be the Centenary of the World Cup tournament, likely with special celebrations. Ronaldo Jr. will turn 20 within days of the start of the tournament in Portugal and around 24 when it is hosted in Saudi Arabia a football system that he is part of. He will also likely be on the same team as his father in Saudi Arabia very soon. Per credible report, he is quite skillful  and is already six feet tall barely turning 16. His father is six foot two and his mother is five foot six. I think there is a very high probability that he grow another one to three inches even with intense athletics training at a young age. If he play against Messi’s kid(s) later in his career at the highest professional football level, that will just make him more marketable and more legendary as a player. Thiago, Messi’s oldest kid who is 13 and plays football is currently around five feet tall. Given Messi is around five foot seven and his wife is around five foot two, it is not very likely that Thiago will grow to six feet tall. This will be very problematic in this situation as the kids of GOATesque players usually do not do that well especially if they are not relatively physically gifted. Boys’ growth spurt typically happen between 13 to 16. Growth spurts usually occur during summer time and if the information is accurate, summer is almost over and he is around 5 feet tall right now. Per reports he is more skills oriented, he will likely even be more disadvantaged as many of the second generation athletes usually have parent(s) who are able to dedicate much of their time training their kid(s) on athletics if they so choose to on both sides. It is also highly unlikely that Thiago will play with Messi in the 2030 World Cup given he will only be 17 at the time. It will also may be unrealistic for him to play in 2034 World Cup with Messi as he will likely not be ready at that time and Messi will have a high likelihood of retiring before then. Ronaldo and Ronaldo Jr. on the other hand will likely be headliners of the event if they both play in 2030 and 2034 World Cup due to where the matches will be played at. For these reasons, I believe Ronaldo Jr. base rookie cards at a few USD per card and rookie chase cards such as numbered RPAs if at less than $100 USD are possibly some of the best investments in collectible cards now when looking at this situation years from now in hindsight. I view buying Ronaldo Jr. cards at this stage the same way I view buying Bronny James rookie cards at this stage except I think Ronaldo Jr. actually have a realistic opportunity of becoming a superstar or possibly more than a superstar. 

People ask me this all the time and I tell them straight up, can you chip in 10,000 USD a year for 30 years into your employer sponsored 401(k) plan? If you start doing so at your early twenties and your employer do some kind of significant match of your contributions, based on current and historical returns data, you should have somewhere near a million USD in your mid to late 30s. The best part about all of this is, if you do contribute, your adjusted gross income (AGI) will be lower hence you will likely be able to lower your tax base by the $10,000 USD you contributed during that particular tax year. The government literally designed all this for you. I’m not saying the US stock market is risk-free, but I believe based on historical data the US stock market is comparative risk-free when compared with certain other stock markets. Remember, at the time of 401(k) contribution you are in your earnings golden years reaching prime in your late 30s and early 40s, you will likely be at a higher tax bracket. The 401(k) withdrawal tax rate is based on the tax rate of your actual withdrawal period not when you made the contributions. This means when you retire there is a chance you could withdrawal your 401(k) funds with little to no tax. In essence, a completely legal tax arbitrage opportunity in line with social contract rules and likely a retirement tax planning method encourage by the government. 

One caveat many FIRE participants have a  hard time with us balancing between being too frugal and enjoying life. Remember, the contributions are happening during your young and prime years. This is a time when you are able to enjoy life to the fullest. My suggestion is to do all that you want to do but learn how to get discounts on things you want to do. When you realize entertainment and enjoyment of life is fuel for more success and a great mental and physical state which are capital for even more success, you will see how important being able to enjoy life is. What do you mean by that? If you want to travel to Europe, instead going there during the peak season which likely will be too hot anyway with Europe’s lack of air conditioner issues, why not go there off peak season and make prudent plans such as save enough PTO to visit all the countries in the Schengen 29-country area on one trip saving tons on fixed costs like multiple airfares, hotel charges, train/transportation fees etc. Plus Euro FX rate fluctuate and Europe go through a lot of these regional tensions, basically the Middle East of the Western world, you can wait when these countries economies go through some type of austere measure so you can exploit the best they have to offer when they become less snobby and arrogant and literally on their knees begging for high-class American travelers who have the dispensable income to spend. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

How to achieve FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early). 

I would absolute avoid certain Western European anti-American snobby iron tower places with all of its no-go zones, pickpocketers and the smell of pee during the summer time with a significant number of its population transplanted there due to its colonial past which may pose an ideological and physical threat to Americans’ minds and bodies especially on specific venerable populations who are historically inclined toward such ideological beliefs and are potentially easy converts. It’s one thing to DEI and subsidize with valuable resources, it’s another to do the above and also have enemies within that potentially do un-American things. Anyway, I digress. To be honest, having travelled around the world, I have yet to find one place better than America overall. The point of traveling the world as an American aligned person is not so much about being in awe of what other people have to offer, it should be more about being grateful of what you already have in America which is in essence extrapolating everything that is good in the world and moving it to America to form a melting pot. 

Certain groups of people claim racism and lack of opportunities here in America but once they visit other parts of the world especially what they call their brothers and sisters, they start to realize how good they have it here. I hope these people will realize by sympathizing with foreign powers and foreign beliefs either directly, indirectly or just due to straight up ignorance are in direct conflict with that of America’s and will not do themselves any good. I believe the MEI movement and demographic shifts in the best universities of the world is helping true patriots whose family backgrounds are aligned with the Western ideals. Many of these people’s ancestors also seen, escaped from and fought against tyranny and knows why they live America. America must keep its advantage of having no natural enemies near its borders and two oceans to protect itself. America should not be educating whose nearshore rise could create enemies near its borders. A buffer zone that is relatively undeveloped and used for triaging with uncertainty factors laid in massive numbers on the physical grounds of buffer zones that will increase cost to any current, future and potential enemies are very important priorities. 

I think for any America aligned travelers out there, it is also very important to check whether the country of destination, transit location or airspace crossing area have extradition agreements with certain archenemy of the United States. If such country, one of the 60 or so, does have such agreement, that most likely mean that country may not be that friendly to American interests or cares much about democratic ideas. Use your disposal income to do other things you may like such as dinning out and buying collectibles. Activities such as buying collectible cards is likely both fun and an investment opportunity. I think the bigger piece to this should be to get a prestigious education and top level license(s) in your field. Once you have those things plus experiences working for large companies. You will have enough FU clout and money to choose what you want to do and to not do what you don’t want to do.

Remember, careers and jobs are usually dead-ends. Any equity you build for the entity typically does not belong to you. You could spend years working for a company and be let go at any moment without any significant equity in the entity. The whole point of getting a job is to get compensated for your skill, efforts and time. What the company can not usually take away from you is the skills and experiences you learned on the job and any additional education obtainment you achieved on your own dime. This is super critical to understand as you do not want your everything during your work-life be devoted to a company that you do not own and to which you do not receive commiserate benefits for the incremental equity you create for them. Hence you have to decide whether you want to WAFRL or AAFRL. The important factor to keep in mind and to impute is what is the at-above-fire-replacement-level is. Basically, the level at which you could significantly develop yourself while still get paid at your job without getting fired. The important thing to know there is when you are calculating AAFRL and you are not a DEI rather than a MEI or a non-DEI hire, what is the minimum effort required to keep your job while also learning the requisite skills to succeed. Also, keep in mind you may be able to tolerate a certain level of attrition risk as the new generation typically now trend closer to two years of average employment length at one employer (industry dependent) than the previous at least three to five years. Non-DEI related AAFRLing is typically more sensitive to risk fluctuations versus more compliance implicit quota-oriented formal/informal systems where employers will view AAFRLing as a cost to doing business in certain part(s) of the West. 

My perspective on this is quite simple. As a global top ten-er in education received from US institution(s) with numerous commiserate low double to single-digit Fortune 500 experiences, I believe WAFRL only really works when you are in a prestigious firm that cares about MEI related results and that your educational institution give you the type of coated-prestige institutionalized and empowered upon you that everyone from these types of MEI, high prestigious firms will see and understand and that will prevail over any low to no bargaining power you came in with due to your familial background from birth. An elite education is the typically an equalizer to a low-bargaining power birth background when you know how to leverage it. You don’t sell gold in markets with lots of fakes and when much of the customer-base is looking for trinkets. You network to gain a foot into the door with an opening that others will see value in and will persuade them to allow both of your foot into the door and clean the filth and dirt from your shoes from whichever world you came from with a nice shoe rubbing on the door mat and a deep cleanse once you are bridged into such societies. Always remember where you came from not to celebrate your sorrowing provenance rather remember how hard it was for you to get in so you can motivate yourself to never go back and sail into the sunset. You didn’t choose where you were born into but you have ever right to steer your life how you want to granted you comply with certain legal, social/moral and societal rules. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

How to choose the right career and/or job. 

The number one rule I believe any person should do starting out in the professional world is to build up their own credibility. This requires frequently requires at least in the initial stage of utilizing prestige gained through association be it through education, networking, affiliation with non-work related organizations such as student clubs and/or through employers.  People who don’t have something will frequently tell you why not having that thing is no big deal, however, if they had that thing their tone likely will change. I think one should go to the best possible school(s) within a given ability range and work for the absolute best companies they could get into through legally compliant means. It is typically much easier to downgrade in prestige than upgrade. Once you have something, even for a few second, you can say you had something without qualifiers because it’s actually true. If you played in an official NBA game for less than a minute, are you not an NBA player? Whether you were undrafted, signed a two-way contract, got your opportunity through an exhibit 10 contract or nepotism, do any of these things make you not an NBA player? Don’t assign meaningful weight to opinions of the lay-clowns who can’t even think through their own thoughts dictate your own ambitions. The bottomline is, get that prestige on your resume. 

You are going to need peak prestige followed by a certain level of quantity as you need to prove to the key detractors who matters in your life that your achievement was not a fluke. An increasingly more prestigious trend at a given range is probably the best way to prove your worthiness to these people at your “prestige prime” and peaking to the highest prime level before normalizing to a regression to the mean which many people experience after they proven themselves and no longer give an F and actually have FU money to don’t give an F anymore in a professional, elite mannered way that frequent still excite the lay-people and lay-entities to get that lucrative second tier money without having to expend much effort, a breeding ground for AAFRLing or WAFRLing to get into partnership level(s). Something that prestigious is rare air and scare resource. No one cares if you were paid minimum wage playing that one second in the NBA since just getting the chance playing in the NBA or any professional sports league in history is basically almost impossible for everyone except maybe 5,000 people who played in the NBA and 300,000 maximum estimate of people who played in any professional sporting league in the history of this world out of the over 100 billions of people who were alive during that period of time. The top global 100 firms in the world may employ 30 million people which is less than 1% of those who active participate in the workforce. When you exclude the non-white-collar, lower skilled and the semi-white-collar employees from the companies that hire the most employees such as the e-commerce, fast food, retail banking, logistics, manufacturing and retailing companies on the global top 100 list, you will find that maybe there are a million or two at the most of employees with near six-figure salary corporate jobs. All that to say is, these companies are like the professional leagues for the non-professional athletes who can get into these companies through  hard work and not solely based on gifted talents at birth.  

Devoting all your time to a rental project which a job basically is, probably is not the wisest move. The smarter move is to learn all the transferable skills possible from your current job, use the prestige you gained to metaphorically erase any possible doubt in the minds of the decision makers on the hiring side that you can perform the job for future opportunities. Yes, you may need to stay at a job for a minimum amount of time to appease the “are you stable” crowd but other than that,  your associates prestige likely could carry you when you at at trajectory GOAT level especially when you can produce results even when the process of how you got there is not always transparent to the hiring decision makers. Ultimately the process will likely only be replicated on a massive level if the result is actually desirable and intrigues the decision makers. A lot of people who could afford it pay for the best of everything even when the best is only marginally better than the second best. Being called the best is prestigious on its own. The purported the stingiest groups of people actually are smart enough to pierce through the price and pay for the value.

Starting a business is almost never about starting a business. Starting a business is about fulfilling a societal needs that you have the interest and resources such as capital and skills to fulfill. Without understanding this concept, your business will likely not be very optimal and sustainable in the long-run. Put it this way, let other people DEI you or harbor guilts about what their ancestor may have done to your ancestor when you know it was your ancestor’s incompetence and your ancestor’s neighbors and peers who actually in the long-run gave your ancestor a much better life than the current descendants of your ancestor’s neighbors and peers could ever have while continuing to perpetuate you are the victim when there are model minorities who had worse than you who do better than you and the person who harbor the guilt. This is not about DEI or MEI, this about how you internalize an internal ledger that knows what you are truly worth and build upon that and work the system in a legally compliant manner and in accordance with the current social contract schema in the West.

Whether you use the RAAALTE method or not and regardless whether you WAFRL or AAFRL in life, you do whatever you have to do in a legally compliant manner to ensure your own success. Don’t let the manifestation of victimhood of any kind that were created to fulfill a need just like why most business are created (to fulfill a societal need) fool you for you to think you actually belong or deserve to sit on a pedestal. As a global top ten-er backgrounded individual, I have seen how this all end up not working well and studied history and know despite the rules humans places the political correct filter on chat bots or clauses on the social contract, 50 years from now the same demographic group may even be in a worse place. The cynical might say hey, that time period is nothing compared to the people in those middle places with a large amount of liquid resources with the resource curse. Business valuation is knowing what it is worse to everyone and knowing what it is worth it to you net of everything in the long-run. Certain things you can acquire but may not be able to hold on to for very realistic reasons. When you start a business, do what you actually can do that you love doing and have more advantages than the rest.

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

How to start a business the right way. 

To succeed when other people fails, frequently requires knowing thyself and others very well. In the West where there are high moral social contract rules in addition to legal compliance requirements, to set one apart one must learn how to dissect the fluff to pierce through the BS that runs consumerism that ultimately feed the economy. To do so, it is important to understand there are many who will try to use time pressure tactics to legally and social contractually press, aka rim protection, you doing something you don’t want to do (affect your decision for choosing the optimal desired shot) and making it sound like you just made a voluntary decision due to your own competence (poor shot selection). Due to privacy laws and democratic ideas, stone cold calculations of actual MEI competency of a person is not being done to determine the person’s true societal contribution value (SCV, akin to the contribution margin in business, kind of like WAR in baseball or RAAALTE in TPC world). The dark side of this is almost everyone in this whole chain of oppressed and oppressors are basically predetermined before the game even started based on certain set of attributes that are already weight-averaged into a “rating” score to determine the value or worth of someone and whether that someone will receive the necessary support and resources needed to live a good life or even survive kind of like what happened in the Hungry Games. 

I think the bottomline is, when you are already at the top of your game and your game is not being recognized, then you probably are not being seen by those who knows the game. This is precisely why I personally believe continuing to improve yourself and know where you should make improvements is probably the wisest decision one could make. You want to expand your market for everyone to see your greatness when it is optimal to do so. Hence when you already are GOAT your greatness is felt everywhere and it transcends beyond everything. Game recognizes game. The right person with the right skills and resources could turn sand into gold or whatever is equivalent or more valuable than gold. To do that, given there could be an infinite amount of variables that could occur in real life, one should have the best general skills with strategic and tactical key transferable skills that can learn and adapt to any situation in a timely and relevant manner. That is exactly why even a supposed underwater basket waving degree from a certain university in Massachusetts may allow one to work in the best investment banks or wherever one may choose to bring his or her talents to. Let us recap. Regardless of your background, if you are being fetished as a group of people who needs a savior of some sort or is being fetished as a victim who needs support due to historical reasons and for the needs of certain other group(s) for whatever ulterior motives or lack of them, use that to your advantage in a legally and social/morally compliant way but don’t actually believe that BS. These people will likely be the first or one of the first to bail on you as soon as the alliance is broken or they have achieved obtained needs and you and your people will likely continue to struggle half century after half century until they push you into the ocean through completely legal, economic methods. At that time what they claim you and your people have suffered might come true and you might be ready, softened up and submissive enough for them to harvest you in every possible, metaphorical and literal way. This is an important lesson in starting a business. You have to vicarious think like you are the lowest denominator, most disadvantaged so you can prepare well when you will actually be squeezed. The key here is to remember you have no leverage. Whatever rights you think you have is only enforceable if you have the means and ability to do so. If you don’t, there will be people and entities that will likely exploit your weaknesses. Hence, when you start a business or any kind of endeavor, initially stick with what you have the absolute advantage in. Don’t worry about all the fragmental noises. No one cares more about your best interest, most of the time, more than you do. For your endeavor to sustain, you need to ensure it actually fulfill the long-term need of society and then you can expand your offering to satisfy that need eventually if you are able to. Your endeavor’s worth should be calculated based on the value-added services you can provide to each chain of the process and ultimately to the end-user. 

You can only do this in the long-term if you are motivated and have easy access to resources to do so especially when the first few years may yield little results to your benefit and that’s when many people quit such endeavors. Most businesses start with an idea that fulfill a need after observing some type of inefficiency or a lack of fulfillment of a need. And most businesses started with one person, the initiator, who may quickly or slowly being other people on board to join forces with them on acting in the idea. Therefore due to limited resources, whatever need you decide to fulfill has to be one that you have an absolute or at least a strong comparative advantage in which will boost the success rate during the most difficult and critical few years at the start. Obviously scaling is another stage that will be difficult to transition into but hopefully you thought about that beforehand and created the infrastructure to easily scale eventually. If you have to spend any significant amount of money to start an endeavor, let’s say more than $1,000 USD in cash or cash equivalent funding, it most likely mean you probably shouldn’t start the endeavor because you will have less than a 99.99% chance of success in the long-run. The most successful legally and social/morally compliant endeavors in my opinion are the ones that requires you to spend nothing to start because you already have everything you need to start it. Of course scaling will take some money and getting the government documents might also take some money but shouldn’t be cost prohibitive in my mind at least not in the Democratic West. If you have to rely on a middle/go between person/entity at any given point, I feel like the business probably is not successful because being successful means whatever you produce should be desired by the market as is. That is the power of an absolute or a strong comparative advantage. Obviously, to get to that point of having such powers, it might take you years of hard work and dedication to get there by learning you you felt was absolutely irrelevant to anything of anything. But hey, who said being successful was easy. Then again, if you became a GOAT which frequently is transferable and transcending, you probably can do anything that is legally, moral/socially compliant that you want. One other thing you probably will never be verifiably be told is the road to success starting an endeavor is to not hire any one. You can still obtain services randomly but you don’t need to have anyone working for you. Once you scale big enough, you can sell that endeavor and passively invest into publicly listed companies until you have saved enough and at the right moment take an influential stake in the said company. At that point, you just created generational wealth. Once again, this is why you need to be at GOAT level to either already substantially know everything or have the transferable knowledge to readily learn everything. The best businesses now are the ones that avoid human-beings all together from the hiring side.

It is clear that most people have accepted cards as a medium of expression. I think in the medium to the long-term the global collectible cards market will breach the annual $100 billion dollar mark. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Here is what I wrote previously regarding this and similar topic(s):

“Pokemon and Pokemon cards of course are relatively new compared to some other brands/franchises and other classes. This may be why the price premium multiplier between newer more modern Pokemon cards and the older vintage WOTC era cards are not as significant as other types of certain types of vintage sports cards. I think the complete human history can not be fully told without the inclusion of the collectibles phenomenon therefore I view Pokemon cards as potential major human artifacts. The collectible cards industry may reach $100 billion dollars within a decade or two due to likely high CAGR which will be a major milestone in human history and have broad impacts on society. A likely large, critical mass  percentage level of the world’s population are already collecting cards. This trend may continue to grow at the current or a more rapid pace in the near future. When one Pikachu card can increase by $10+ million and more than double its worth in a matter of a few years, cards that may share certain attributes may also be positive affected, the rest are just multipliers. There may be many examples of this phenomenon happening in recent times, one of which is how the popularity of Gengar cards are affect its “downstream/evolutionary downstream lineage” Pokemon cards like Haunter and Gastly. 

With sports cards, because there are millions of athletes in all different kinds of sports who played in different eras, in different leagues and who played with different levels of completion, investing in these is more like buying a house with each having distinct characteristics like its location, neighborhood median income level, local economy etc and all these things constant evolve over time.  This is precisely why English Pokemon holographic cards, especially the vintage ones cost more. Not just because of the language or potential market size difference, but mostly due to pull rate of holographic cards where the Japanese vintage packs essentially guaranteed one holo card per pack whereas the English version packs did not. Hence because the GOAT of a sport is literally just one person or a handful of people at the most, a title that take frequently decades of work to achieve and is often only publicly recognized and granted with consensus years later. 

One would argue identifying a potential GOAT who likely had to be benchmarked against hundreds of thousands of contemporaries and predecessors in the few popular sports that actually have a large sports cards collecting fan base, the premium for the massive amount of effort and resources that are poured into this search is akin to finding a specific atom with just the right amount of electrons, protons and neutrons in whatever its required final form be it ionization, fusion or whatever else in a forest in the dark racing against time and with a copious amount of other hunters now that they smelled the money from  a potentially $100 billion dollar future industry,  have to be huge for all this expenditure to be worth it. Most people like winners and matters with certain desirable attributes, some people are actually willing to pay for these features. 

The animation and TCG aspect of the Pokemon franchise will likely prevent it from issuing true rookie cards, numbered cards, memorabilia cards including autographed cards any time soon, things that are highly valued in sports cards collecting. One thing that could be a Pokemon card trend in the future is collecting the cards of a Pokemon’s first introduction or appearance in the TCG. This concept is currently not valued in the Pokemon TCG world with the first edition labels on certain Wizards of the Coast sets being the closest concept. This concept could take off some time in the future, however, given most of the super popular Pokemon’s were introduced during the WOTC era and they had 1st edition labels back then, the ceiling on this concept taking off is probably mild at best. Yes, timing is more important in sports cards investing and it requires up to date information and data to make the most optimal decisions, kind of like what a short term investor or a day trader need to do to be successful in their craft. 

Wait, investing in sports cards sounds like a lot of work, why don’t I just stick with Pokemon cards since they are way more stable and also grows pretty fast! There is a reason why investors prefer to diversify their portfolios. Sports cards have higher alphas but also have higher betas, translation, higher risk and higher returns. With Pokemon cards, you mostly only have to worry about systemic or market risk once you come up with a prudent collecting strategy. In some sense, the cards of desirable Pokemon characters like Pikachu and Charizard, mostly introduced in the mid to late 1990s and the early 2000 during the Wizards of the Coast era are kind of fungible in that you mostly can’t go wrong buying them because the storylines are already fundamentally set and its future storyline is not too difficult to predict ballpark wise. Hence regardless of the cards of the sets you buy for some of these Pokemon characters, the baseline values will likely be perceived as the same by bellwether investors, attribute differences like artworks are just multipliers to the equation. 

With sports cards, because there are millions of athletes in all different kinds of sports who played in different eras, in different leagues and who played with different levels of completion, investing in these is more like buying a house with each having distinct characteristics like its location, neighborhood median income level, local economy etc and all these things constant evolve over time.  This is precisely why English Pokemon holographic cards, especially the vintage ones cost more. Not just because of the language or potential market size difference, but mostly due to pull rate of holographic cards where the Japanese vintage packs essentially guaranteed one holo card per pack whereas the English version packs did not. Hence because the GOAT of a sport is literally just one person or a handful of people at the most, a title that take frequently decades of work to achieve and is often only publicly recognized and granted with consensus years later.”

The valuation for a near GOAT chase card versus a non-GOAT HOFer chase card is huge. The lists are not based on absolute appreciation in value but rather based on comparative appreciation in value. We are not talking about 1,000% or 10,000% increases. We are talking about exponential and quantum jump type of growth that 1000X or more over a few decades with little initial investment threshold, little no maintenance and transaction fees and almost no barrier to investment entry. Most of these types have a few things in common. They are very or relatively new at the time, have growth potentials but very few people understand its potentials and future applications and very few people heard about the company nor its industry. They were relatively small start-up endeavors and were considered risky investments. They were also usually not the first to do what they did in their broad category as they learned from the experiences of their predecessors and created their own sub-niches. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Collectible sports base rookie cards to sell list for July of 2026.

Aaron Judge (Baseball): Unfortunately he is too injury prone to be considered the GOATesque. With a prime Ben rice and Jasson Dominguez rising up, Aaron Judge likely won’t be seen as the greatest Yankees in his era for too long especially give his championship record. I don’t believe his terminal base rookie value is above $20 wholesale at this point of his career. I believe his base rookie cards will likely be around the same range as Jeter’s which is around a few dollars after he retires. 

Mike Trout (Baseball): Unfortunately he is too injury prone to be considered the GOATesque. The advanced metrics and the playoff lack of success will probably not be seen too favorably in the future. He also has some other potential issue(s) that once MLB stops protecting his reputation, these things will likely decrease his card values significantly. I don’t believe his terminal base rookie value is above $10 wholesale at this point of his career. I believe his base rookie cards will likely be around the same range as Cabrera’s which is around a few dollars after he retires. 

Shohei Ohtani (Baseball): He is definitely a GOATesque level player now. His biggest issue is his marketability and starting out too late in the MLB. Durability will likely also be a major concern. He also has some other potential issue(s) that once MLB stops protecting his reputation, these things will likely decrease his card values significantly. I think his rookie cards will probably grow by a few hundred by the time he retires but in terms of relative appreciation against the base cards with the best ROIs, I think there are better ROIs elsewhere. 

Michael Jordan (Basketball): Jordan’s GOAT will continue to be diluted as many players will establish records he never accomplished. His rookie cards are way over priced given how much more of rookie cards are available versus that of Mantle and Ruth. Jordan was also never 20 times greater than Kareem and therefore Jordan’s cards are way overvalued even given Kareem’s rookie cards came out of a time that was not the junk wax era and Kareem is strongly in the GOAT conversation. Also, Nevermind Jordan’s endless controversies regarding topics that are rarely discussed in glaring negative lights. I believe once people give Lebron his flowers and he achieve even more, Jordan’s base rookie cards will likely hoover back to the low thousands of USD in higher grades. 

Lionel Messi (Soccer/Football): History will likely view Ronaldo and Pele differently than they do now due to various reasons for reasons that are super obvious now but no one dare to really talk about in the perspective that should revolve around these conversations. His rookie cards are maybe a hundred dollars which is decent, however, I believe there will be good reasons to why his base rookie cards will likely stay in the upper hundreds to lower thousands for years to come. I believe there are better ROIs out there.

Muhammad Ali (Boxing): As the country shift in its ideology on definition of love for thy country and shore up its religious system, Ali and the likes of Kareem, Hakeem and Tyson will likely be marginalized. I think Western Europe will essentially no longer tolerate blatant display of certain behavior which frequently result in overreacts. I believe Tyson can defeat Ali in his prime. I also believe boxing fans generally do not buy a lot of boxing cards and I also believe Ali’s rookie cards are relatively illiquid. I also believe Ali’s rookie cards is probably really only worth a few hundred USD now but are currently over priced. 

Trinity Rodman (Soccer/Football): Marketability and durability will be big concerns. And of course, the topic that will always follow when discussing Trinity Rodman is Dennis Rodman who is great player but most people are just not too sure about the role model part. I think Trinity Rodman rookie cards will stabilize around less than $100 over time. I think these rookie cards will probably not appreciate by much, I think there are better ROIs elsewhere. 

Patrick Mahomes (American Gridiron Football): Unfortunately the GOAT QB conversation will only have room for one GOAT. Quarterbacks are frequently defined by championships which most people see the QB as the in the field general and leader who orchestrates and lead a team to a championship. Mahomes plays for a small market team, not extremely marketable and is injury prone. He will also likely not obtain the passing yards, TD and Super Bowl by a QB records. I think he will need at least eight Super Bowls to be considered as the GOAT which I highly doubt will happen given his age, career trajectory and foreseeable team roster. I think his base rookie cards will likely have a terminal value of around $20. I think there are better ROIs elsewhere. 

I know this list is not exhaustive and doesn’t include many other players like Tom Brady, Bryce Harper, Jalen Hurts, Kareem, Russell, Chamberlain and many others but then again, I don’t think people really view them as true GOATs and I think their base rookie cards prices are not that unreasonable at the moment. 

Collectible sports base rookie cards to buy list for July of 2026.

Lance Armstrong (Cycling): Without talking about his controversial past, his on the track performance as an American GOAT and a near GOAT in his sport, I think $3 USD at wholesale for his true rookie card is almost hard to believe considering how much they were a decade or two back. I think with increasing openness to legalization of certain things, people in the future will view these kinds of controversies much different than how they view these things now. I foresee a 10X increase in the next two decades for his base rookie cards. 

Barry Bonds (Baseball): Without talking about his controversial past, his on the field performance as one of the GOATs in his sport, I think $1 USD at wholesale for some of his rookie cards is almost hard to believe considering how much they were a decade or two back. To date, no one is even close to his single season and career home run records. I foresee a 30X increase in the next two decades for his base rookie cards. 

Lebron James (Basketball): Phenomenal Beginnings from 2003-2024 is selling for about $5 each at retail, probably less at whole sale. Lebron 2003-2024 Fleer Ultra H2 Hummer card plus model Hummer car set for around the same retail cost 20 plus years ago around $35-$40 USD. Lebron lives in the age of social media hence he get hated on a lot. The truth is his life is probably no more controversial or perhaps less controversial than many of the so called GOATs and GOATesque players of his era and near his era. Your TPC believe Lebron is the GOAT or at the very least one of the GOATs. Depending on his next move, I believe he will likely play another three to five years and will either be very close or exceed the 50,000 regular season points mark. I also think he might win a championship or two while playing on the same team as one or both of his sons in the NBA. I also believe he will likely become a $10 billionaire. Lebron appears to be investing very well into very promising ventures. More importantly, Lebron has capable and loyal people around him and a loving family. I foresee a 10X increase in the next two decades for his base rookie cards. 

The rest of the list and its discussions are from my previous post(s).

Ben Rice (Baseball): Reaching prime with the right statistics while playing for a world-class icon of a team. Higher multipliers due to reasons that I cannot fully disclosed due to social contract reasons. At around $1 USD wholesale for his rookie cards, I foresee a 30X increase in the next two decades for his base rookie cards. 

Nick Kurtz (Baseball): Higher elite professional average expectancy remaining. Higher multipliers due to reasons that I cannot fully disclosed due to social contract reasons. At around $1 USD wholesale for his rookie cards, I foresee a 30X increase in the next two decades for his base rookie cards. 

Drake Baldwin (Baseball): Hit the right indicators at the right age. Followed up with good second year trends on a good and storied franchise with recent championship. Many GOATs are rookie of the year winners. At around $1 USD wholesale for his rookie cards, I foresee a 15X increase in the next two decades for his base rookie cards. 

Jasson Dominguez (Baseball): Plays for a marquee franchise, still young, been talked about for years, probably just need to learn to field better which is likely not difficult if he becomes a designed hitter. At around $1 USD wholesale for his rookie cards, I foresee a 15X increase in the next two decades for his base rookie cards. 

Chet Holmgren (Basketball): His potentially generational beef with Wemby may work out like Bill Russell versus Wilt Chamberlain comparisons. One has too many rings for ten fingered to each wear one and the other is not primarily known as a winner but has significantly more on the personal career statistics and may have lots of stories some of which I don’t think would be appropriate to discuss here. With or without film, historically speaking after both retires many years later, if it were the case, the distinction between a top 40 player versus a top 50 player or whatever will come down to what first comes to mind to people who remember them. Chet’s cards value will likely be pegged to a ratio of whatever Wemby is at whether that’s plus or minus. I don’t waste money on buying Wemby cards just like I don’t buy David Robinson or Tim Duncan’s cards anymore even though many of their rookie cards are around a dollar or two each now. At around $1 USD wholesale for his rookie cards, I foresee a 15X increase in the next two decades for his base rookie cards. 

Cade Cunningham (Basketball): Pistons are frequently perceived as a tough team for whatever historical reasons. As a guard, his height alone is relatable for many people. I think he is a regional story who may become a national or international story once he starts to win in the playoffs more consistently. I am not particularly attracted to his playing style or anything else. I just think from a statistical standpoint, his cards are very undervalued right now. At around $1 USD wholesale for his rookie cards, I foresee a 15X increase in the next two decades for his base rookie cards. 

Bronny James (Basketball): If I think as the same way as other people, I wouldn’t be the permanent contrarian. There are really a few intriguing things about him that will resonate with people despite the hate he sometimes may get. His story of perseverance health wise and humbleness for someone who is in his situation is quite rare. He is pretty mentally tough and is quite wise for his age. People will look his stats and say all kinds of things. I don’t need to repeat it here. However, you have to see the forest for its guano not just s*** that one needs to spend money to clean up. This is a liability to asset double swing if one gets this valuation correctly. The father-son due is a combined story not just a singular story. That means stats can also be split among two players as in first father son duo reach xxxxx of points, assists, steals, regular season games, playoff games etc. Lebron is a historical figure of significant importance hence his scions who are part of this story will be as well. It is an inspirational tale about life and not just about sports. Lebron has at least a few more records to chase (tie for playing in most decades in the NBA, 50,000 regular season points, playing with his two sons in the NBA and in an NBA game on the same team). At around $1 USD wholesale for his rookie cards, I foresee a 10X increase in the next two decades for his base rookie cards. 

Dalton Rushing (Baseball): Plays for a marquee team. Higher multipliers due to reasons that I cannot fully disclosed due to social contract reasons. At around $1 USD wholesale for his rookie cards, I foresee a 10X increase in the next two decades for his base rookie cards. 

Paolo Banchero (Basketball): I am not particularly attracted to his playing style or anything else. I just think from a statistical standpoint, his cards are very undervalued right now. At around $1 USD wholesale for his rookie cards, I foresee a 10X increase in the next two decades for his base rookie cards. 

James Wood (Baseball): Higher elite professional average expectancy remaining. Hit the right indicators at the right age. Followed up with good second year trends. At around $1 USD wholesale for his rookie cards, I foresee a 10X increase in the next two decades for his base rookie cards. 

I will simplify the answer here. As a regular person who may not have much disposable income and probably do not have an Ivy Plus or prestigious work experience background, you really do not have a lot of margins for errors. I highly recommend you utilize the excellent safety net already created for you and tested to work very well via the Western consumerism social contract and get most of your financial exposures and likely will be exposed to stocks, mutual funds and possibly ETFs through the 401(k) or some type of tax advantaged IRA. 401(k) will mostly limit you to large and mega caps not not the penny stocks which I think is ideal for the common, non-Ivy Plus person. To be honest, I would say the 401(k) is probably the most logical case for the regular person. Of course the whole design was for you to work for someone, stay out of trouble and spend. I don’t necessarily think deviating away from the formula will do the common person any good. If you are a student of history, you will probably know what group of people created that system and will choose to live in the geographical locations that will actually honor this system by benefitting those who the system was actually designed for. Of course, I won’t elaborate on this in order to comply with the social contract. I see the 401(k) as almost risk-free as you are entrusting the good faith and capabilities of a certain entity that lead an alliance of entities. In reality, there is no other stabilizing force capable of making this statement for the next half century at minimum. I would not touch the derivatives such as options and futures if I were a common person and especially not the leverages and the margins. I see cryptocurrency currency more as a medium of exchange technology featuring blockchain than an actual viable medium of exchange. 

Most governments now either have or are exploring their own digital currencies. When you think about it, a decentralized currency won’t really work in the long-term without the backing of the centralized authorities for very rudimentary reasons. Almost everything that are considered highly liquid like gold and silver are essentially heavily regulated by the central authorities. Cryptocurrency might be a useful tool for those who care about their privacy for whatever reasons. I believe regulations are coming for crypto and it will likely require more streamlined tax reporting which will essentially limit the privacy aspect of the asset class. I personally would not bet on the cryptocurrency market to appreciate greatly in the long-term. Real estate is typically a good investment though many people give too much credit to the tax benefits from paying interest on mortgages. Basically if you have to forgo taking the standard deduction which is approximately 16K for a single filer if you are to deduct mortgage interest. The issue here is a $300K mortgage at approximately 6% for 30 years is less than $20k in interest initially. But interest payment included in the mortgage payment get smaller and smaller over time where more principle payment is made. Of course, itemization can also include certain medical bills, charity donation and property taxes among some other item(s). However, when you realize most people who own real estate also file joint which means they can get 32k in deductions. Property tax is about 1-2% a year based on appraised value of the property. All I’m trying to say is the tax benefits from home ownership is probably overblown versus standard deduction. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Invest in real estate, collectibles (sports cards, coins, stamps, antiques, arts, Pokemon and other TCG), precious metals like gold and silver, securities (stocks, bonds, mutual fund, ETF, options, futures and other derivatives), cryptocurrency or other alternative assets.

When you own a home and have a mortgage most of the cash flow you get as a common person go to the mortgage with little to invest into anything else. Sure you can rent our rooms or the whole house but regardless you will have maintenance cost to home ownership and a lot of other cost like your time and standard of living. The housing market also have these cycles and is highly linked to the economy, neighborhood well-being, interest rates and treasury. I just think you should only buy a house for non-money reasons as there are much better investments that such up less cash. Real estate is more of a heirloom thing for the mega rich not really how the common person get mega rich. If you think fixing up TLC houses will make you rich because you are a handyman, you may need to think twice because repairing is only a small part of the business. This business requires knowing people and being a people person, lead generation, cash flow financing management, knowing the law and regulations and a very calculating business sense. Most people are mistaken when they say buying is cheaper than renting. Without wasting all of our times with item by item calculations, I will just say most couples do not need four bed rooms and 2,000 square feet and front and back yards to live comfortably. If you are single or in a relationship and do not have kid(s), depending where you are, likely you can get a room for less than $1,000 USD. Owning a house include a lot of additional costs renting do not have such as property tax, mortgage interest, trash fees, mowing lawn fees, repair fees and much higher utility fees. Put it this way, a $300K USD mortgage for 30 years at 6% will cost about over $300K in interest alone in addition to the principal. All the closing cost plus the loan origination fee is probably at least a few thousand extra. Property tax for a $500K house at 2% is about $10K a year. Some people will argue that this amount is actually an investment into the local system that spurs additional investments into the local economy in term increase housing value. There are also special assessments. 

The average historical house price is about 4.5% compounded in the US and even more recent appreciate rates which are significantly lower than this which is significantly lower than the average compound return of US stock market at 10%. Yes, there are tax exclusion benefits (250K and 500K on profit exclusion for single and jointly tax filers respectively when you sell your primary residence), however, when you figure the intangible and tangible net benefits versus 401(k) (even considering SDIRA, Solo 401K or borrowing/withdrawal from 401(k)), I think overall is just not worth it. I mean if you significant other pressure you to buy a house even though you don’t want one because you think rationally and not emotionally, perhaps you should reconsider your life’s choices. Plus tying people down with more sink cost and increase their switching cost are mostly tactics used by those who are trying to depose of depreciating asset which you know I for sure won’t elaborate on. I think this generation of people have made a different life choice with increasingly more DINKing, staying single and prenups. You got to learn that anything unpopular is typically due to vested interested preventing it from being popular. Over time, the proof is in the pudding. As long as you don’t feel embarrassed by your own decision making, the clown is the OPP. Being a permanent contrarian will always yield a higher return because all higher returns are made by those who venture into something that no one else is doing that yield huge margins and set them apart. Of course to be a permanent contrarian you have to constantly adapt to changes. Though I consider myself as a third wave vanguard permanent contrarian who contra others actions just before a new industrial revolution. This lowers my cost of contrasting without spending on R&D while seeing the clinical trials of others and study the results. All great revolutionaries rode on the backs of the pioneers. I’m the permanent contrarian equivalent of buying the house just at the edge of Beverly Hills near South Central and Skid Row right after I hear the word regentrification, NIMBY and zoning change but just before everyone else hear those words and can process those words into information and taking investment actions. 

I’m a last inning permanent contrarian but a permanent contrarian nonetheless. Is albacore not tuna? When bluefins are effectively off the dinner table, is albacore not the new mainstream tuna? I think this is probably the best balance between risk and reward. Taking calculated risks yes but also earn above average risk per reward. Collectibles when they are easy to store and inexpensive per individual units, to me, are eligible for my alternative assets investment consideration. As I mentioned before, cash flow is very important for the average person because the average person does not have inexpensive ways to obtain a large amount of cheap credit for the medium to long-term. Stamps as a collectible are pretty much out fad and coins, paper money, arts, antiques, gold and silver will cost you a lot of money and takes a lot of expertise to invest right. At this most, the simplest investment to understand for the average Western person to understand are collectible cards. Western people have a lot of free time and many use those free time to watch sports, play sports, watch cartoons/tv shows/movies and play various games including TCGs. Without having to repeat what I have mentioned already in numerous previous posts, collectible cards are probably the best lottery level investments one could make besides 401(k). Most people don’t know how the investments within 401(k) actually work in details including its valuation, however, that doesn’t matter because the system was designed to make the 401(k) system almost risk-free for the average person otherwise the whole full faith system will likely collapse which will destroy the innovation market and wanton consumerism. 

Here is the truth. Nearly 100% of the people will never become rich in their careers regardless whether they work for themselves or for other people even if their career earnings are a million plus. The issue is economies of scale, cash flow limitations, experience gap and more or any combination of these. Borrowing or raising money often requires a reputation of continuing success, significant amount of collateral assets or a network of entities who are willing to co-sign. As per my previous post on the RAAALTE method, realistically, the only way to get ahead is to take calculated risks that you have a high probable chance of success while you also have a day job that can pay the bills and provide a safety net for your physiological and psychological benefits. Most jobs lead to dead-ends because their purpose is to facilitate employment so consumers can afford to buy from the companies that employ them as employees. Some investment in oneself yield better returns than others because they translate and transfer very well to everywhere. For example, an Ivy Plus education typically will mean significantly better life-time employment prospects than a non-Ivy Plus and non-near-peer Ivy Plus education. 

Surprisingly with scholarships, many Ivy Plus schools can be just as inexpensive if not more inexpensive than state school. Even without scholarships, many Ivy Plus schools are frequently no more expensive than non-near-peer Ivy Plus private schools. Attitude is everything in life. Most people can be trained to do a job well. If you are generally pleasant to work with, in Western societies, you will do just fine even if you perform AAFRL, a terminology I discussed in a previous post. Certain language skills are also very transferable. If you are a fluent English speaker, I believe Spanish is the absolute most important and easiest language to learn. Spanish speaking population segment will continue to grow rapidly worldwide and in North America Latinx/Hispanic descendants will likely account for over 30% of the population within 40 years. Spanish is a no brainer pick over French, despite its growth in usage in Africa, when choosing a second language for fluent English speakers for many reasons that I will not discuss here mostly due to social contract reasons. The hype over learning the supposed superpower East Asian country’s language in your life time is probably over and will likely yield little benefit as it struggles during its de-globalize/de-westernize phase during at the very least the better part of your career. That country realistically need to gain unfettered access to the Pacific Ocean to be on equal playing fields with the combined core Western Alliance aligned nations. It most likely won’t expand eastward into the Pacific due to impediments that they likely do not want to confront in the next decade at the very least and instead will likely explore northern and/or westward inland expansions, basically cannibalizing its own semi-alliances.

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

How to maximize your career potential.

In terms of majors or career choices, I believe one should pursue his or her passion. When people pursue their dreams, they will ultimately be more motivated and eager in their careers. However, I think in general, if one does not have a particular strong passion for anything, choosing a career that will allow one to find jobs easy due to demand and be closer to money, as it is the medium of exchange that will allow one to acquire various things, might be the smarter move. Besides experience, getting a top license/certificate in a chosen field is probably also very important and likely at least somewhat transferable given it at least represent the cream of the crop in a given occupation which at the very least says a lot about one’s work ethics. And of course, having sufficient FU money, which frequently operate in similar logic as MAD in the geopolitics context, is almost always important as it gives one assurance and time to pick and choose on one’s own terms without being pressured to make disadvantageous decisions due to financial desperation. 

In any work place and in life, there will always be people who you don’t like or who don’t like you for various reasons and many times for no fault of yours or the other person’s. Bosses and coworkers come and go just like you in your career. I think what is important is to stay in a workplace for a stable amount of time, learn the important skills in that job then move on to a new position or a new job within a given or related field. Obvious the opportunities you get will likely depend on your skills, experience, degrees and licenses/certificates as well as your personal traits such as likability and attitude. You don’t need to be liked by all, you will have to be reasonably easy to work with while at the same time protect yourself from encroachment to your lane, continuously to grow and avoid being exploited. If you plan to AAFRL, you need to first scale to a point where you can take risks while also have the kind of stability to fall back on. The all-in-mentality at the unprepared stage usually have an extremely low probability of a good outcome. 

I think the key word is balance. Even when at work, you need to figure out what you can delegate/train other people on so you have the bandwidth to learn new skills at your job while at the same time maintain your value to your employer by not appear to be comparative less useful when compared against your newly trained colleague(s). That balancing act requires timing things correctly and gauging your value to the company properly. After all, every exit is an entry and every entry is an exit. I do however believe when you are well-established as a capable and reliable employee due to your experience level, skills, educational background and professional certifications, you probably already gained enough trust equity from all that you are valuable to the company regardless how you will be utilized at work in a legally compliant manner. I think successfully leveraging transferable skills increase career success rate by a wide margin. I also believe the more transferable skills one have, if they are reasonably attained from a resource expenditure standpoint, the more valuable one becomes in the job market and in society which will likely yield significant benefit for that person.

There is no such thing as a dead-end to anything in life because…..see, you get it. Anyway, the whole point of getting a job is to get paid. The whole point of career advancement, you guessed it, is to get paid. If the end goal has always been to get paid, isn’t the job just a medium of exchange for money? Let’s do some math. Hypothetically speaking, you do well in a good job, you get a 3% annual COLA adjustment and you also get a merit increase every few years. Compare that against you do a decent enough job so that you don’t get fired, you get a COLA increase and never get a merit increase. Yes, you will probably be stressed worrying about losing your job. I would argue the person who works way-above-firing-replacement-level (WAFRL) aka the high performer is not really efficient with his or her time and will stress equally if not more than someone who works at-above-firing-replacement-level (AAFRL) aka the low performer due to “performance punishment.” When you realize not leaving a skilled job after a few years for a higher paying one typically means you are leaving money on the table, you will realize  why the RAAALTE method I developed is important. 

First of all, no one person or entity will pay attention to you every second and especially not forever. This means bosses may leave, your company’s situation may change, the ecosystem may change and heck, you may change. This means there are a lot of wasted movements/efforts you are performing daily that will yield little or no actual financial returns. It’s not just your time you are exchanging money for. Most of the time you are giving up opportunity costs such as time away from doing things you like or need to do like enjoying life, taking better care of your health by being in a better physical and/or mental state, time with your family and friends and developing your other times etc. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

The Risk-Adjusted Above-Average Life-Time Earnings (RAAALTE) method for decision making.

The RAAALTE method, created by your favorite TPC, may help transition the Western world into a more MEI based society. In many of the non-democratic regions, they do not allow any deadweight to weight down their “common prosperity” initiatives with all kinds of “programs” and “incentives” to ensure its populace stay on the MEI side of the coin. WAFRL is basically the risk-free, default setting because with enough efforts and time, anyone who is decently intelligent and fully dedicate themselves to hone-in their craft will reach this level. AAFRL regards a lot of skills, balancing and slickness/finessment. The earnings differential between AAFRL and WAFRL is essentially the risk-adjusted upper bound incremental earnings above risk-free levels. If you can’t conformably side hustle, the job is probably dead-end.

Since I am just writing for fun and you are likely not a mathematician or a financier, I will make it easy for both of us. The RAAALTE method is simply taking the net present value calculation and modifying it. The NPV formula already takes into account compounding and opportunity cost expressed in money terms. The formula on the left-hand side will represent present value of future expected returns from performing at level that is AAFRL which translate into the English language as optimal side hustling which can include anything from moonlighting and entrepreneurship to learning a new skill or pursuing a degree/certificate, without getting fired with a safety margin of +10% extra effort above the expected getting fired level. The getting fired level can be gauged by “comping” the level of perform of the lowest performing active employee within your department. The net cash flow aka CF in this case will be what you make in your career at the AAFRL level including 401k, social security contribution and whatever other cash equivalent benefits you get plus what you will make once you receive the full payoff from your side hustle returns minus the calculatable cost you incurred maintaining AAFRL levels plus costs associated with pursuing your side hustle(s). Your “r” will be the rate in which you believe the discount rate will be. Given you are in control by doing something you actually feel comfortable in pursuing and likely have above-average control than most passive investments, I think the 10% ballpark average from US equity returns is a good rate to use for the discount count rate “r” representing the opportunity cost. The “t” or time period should be based on how many years you see yourself actively “working.” The “n” is the frequency of compound such as compounding once a month, once a quarter, once a year etc. Ra is the expect probability of the CF actually materializing. For example, if you expect there is only a 20% probability the CF will actually materialize, then take all the CF inputs and output as mentioned above, net it, then multiple it by the probability percentage of 20%.

Without any technical knowledge about finance, AI can probably help you calculation all of this based on frequency of compound, period..etc. The left and the right of the minus sign should be exactly the same. The difference is the one to the left of the minus sign represent the AAFRL level output and the one to the right of the minus sign represent WAFRL level output. I know money will grow money, since we are comparing apples here, we will ignore the money beget more money compounding impact beyond the number of years in this calculation. In essence, the RAAALTE formula modifies the NPV by replacing the “initial investment” calculation on the right side of the formula after the minus sign with the same calculation on the left hand side. RAAALTE tells the story of worthiness of extracurricular activities beyond the normal trajectory in financial terms whereas RAAALTE ratio tells the story of the portion of differential from the extracurricular activities compared with normal trajectory as a percentage. RAAALTE in principle combines the tangibles and the intangibles of everything  in life expressed in absolute and comparative formats taking into account opportunity costs and time value of money. 

Simply speaking the formulas should be thus:

Risk-Adjusted, Above-Average, Life-Time Earnings (RAAALTE) = AAFRL – WAFRL

Risk-Adjusted, Above-Average, Life-Time Earnings Ratio (RAAALTE Ratio) = RAAALTE/WAFRL

Whereas:

AAFRL = ((CF*Ra)/(1+r)^t compounding at “n” frequency 

WAFRL = (CF*Ra)/(1+r)^t compounding at “n” frequency 

To me, a RAAALTE ratio of above +500% is probably a no brainer decision. A percentage that is between 100% to 500% is probably a reasonable decision. Anything below a 100% is probably not worth the risk. For example if you expect to earn 1 million USD from AAFRL level and expect to earn 700K USD from WAFRL level which will derive a RAAALTE of 300K USD, at a ratio of about 43% (300K/700K), it might not be worth the risk.

I will say it again, based on my experience working in many of these fields and knowing the speed of mass technological deployment, adaptation and integration numerous changes into daily lives, it will literally take decades. Even when they are fully implemented, in most democracies and market-oriented economies, there will be at least a decade where the holdouts from such technological advancements can still live reasonably comfortable without adaptation of such as advancements. Realistically, anyone who has already reached adulthood and is currently in the workforce will not be severely impact by any of this. Yes, you will likely need to learn to use some of these tools. Yes, your field may lose jobs from these advancements. Yes, you may even lose your job from such advancements. However, at this stage, you will likely get away with learning only surface level/superficial knowledge about these tools and do just fine. Yes, your field may be lose jobs and you may need to find a new job at some point, however, due to the lack of uniformity globally regarding protocol, ethics and direction among other issues, the schools are not training their students well enough to really replace you in that regard. You will likely have more advantage in the field learning these things than the students in the career pipeline.

There are just too many kinks to be worked out. Humans have yet to master many of the more critical issues like the human brain, equitably distribute wealth and work in light of major technological advances, creating unlimited energy and water, creating unlimited amount of food, artificial womb births among other things to really teach the AI/robots/whatever to replace humans never mind colonize other planets in most people’s lifetimes at this moment. At this point, learning the basics of coding and a major AI application likely will be enough of a basis to adapt further if one chooses to and need to. Economic priorities in this day and age often dictation the direction and speed of technological deployments. Based on the current economic model, people need to be gainfully employed in order to spend. If no one can afford to buy anything, what is the point of making a whole bunch of stuff that no one can afford to buy? Conversely if everyone gets a universal basic income distribution, what motivation do people have to contribute to society? When the majority of people have too much time on their hands, they may self-actualize to a degree that some people may not like……I doubt that is what everyone wants to see when the infrastructure to defuse such social contract related pressures can not be easily, systematically defused.

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Here is what I previously wrote regarding this and similar topic(s). 

“The biggest issue that will prevent any of that from truly replacing human beings is ethics. Yes, current technology has technological limitations on the human nuanced nitty gritty actions. Yes, decision makers need to ensure the transition stage is not sudden but rather gradual to prevent societal issues. The ethics issue is real because ethics is a code of conduct that make the human society rule based and not a free for all. That means in free, democratic societies it has to consider the interest of all equally or risk social upheaval while in less free and democratic societies it has to consider risks to the ruling class from the masses. There are many restrictions on AI today due to ethical reasons that can make asking AI to provide information from analyzed data on real statistics like life saving truth such as which neighborhood and demographics to avoid from a risk probability standpoint virtually impossible to find. Yet those are the things what AI can be the most useful: to provide heartless cold truth most humans are unable to say out loud due to social contract reasons living in Western societies. If such things are confronted face-on, like putting someone or a demographic group on a performance improvement plan (PIP), then true societal evolutionary stage will occur and those that don’t comply, like being on a PIP, will eventually be asked to leave. That is what MEI, meritocracy based diversity should be all about. Some people will say, it is a free country with no prevalent exit bans, if you don’t like it, you are welcome to move to the country mentioned in point number one. You may just end up enjoying the amount of freedom, common wealth/prosperity, mental hospital/jail stays where they tube feed you an unlimited amount of schizophrenic medicine while electro-shock your brains for saying “crazy things” while also “borrowing your organs” and the unlimited amount free speech and “exercise through labor and rehabilitation” they say you can exercise and enjoy over there while your family and friends frantically looking for you only to also be enjoying the same thing if they were looking for you if they lived there as well….XD

The humanoid robots, AI and automation trend will likely continue to progress rapidly in the coming years. It is however not as scary as it seems from a job security standpoint for most people in the workforce now at least for workers in the US. The US is a consumer oriented economy with consumer spending being one of its largest drivers of economic growth. If a large swath of workers lose their jobs, there would be no one to sell the products to. The rest of the world also heavily depend on the US for consumption due to its lucrative marketplace. Privacy, safety and other elements that affect the human experience is also important in America hence any technological advanced implemented at scale will likely have to clear those hurdles as well. Automation has been happening for years. What basically ended happening there was productivity per worker went up, prices per unit went down, worker wage went up, average per capita consumption went up, invention went up because people have more time to think and experiment and Americans are able to consume more than ever. I foresee humanoid robots, with the exception of ethics and safety concerns, will likely help fulfill the needs of people. AI is already helping people increase productivity, however, it is still years away from being sophisticated enough to AIoT (artificial intelligence if things) to control everything. 

Space exploration was likely the dream of everyone when they were little. Space doesn’t have to mean outer space, it could just mean discovering new places. The biggest mysteries for the human race are probably where are we really from, can we live forever, how we got here, are there other hospitable planets like Earth for humans and are there others like other in the universe. Many of these questions will probably take generations to answer, however, the age of space exploration will likely last for centuries. The biggest takeaway from that is we have to think about things from a galactical standpoint not just earthly. For example, are precious metals still worth hoarding when there are tons of that in other space locations or can we live longer on other planets. On the contrary, if more cultures are found, cultural relics like collectible cards may be worth a lot more due to curiosity and overall a bigger market for such items. Perspectives on life will likely also change which will cause consumption patterns to change due to influence of new cultures and state of being.”

I have been frequently right about my predictions. Even when I wasn’t 100% right, my logic was usually correct. Invariably people will ask me how I was able to make accurate predictions consistently. Listen, you probably heard the saying many times, “it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog.” You wouldn’t be picking the winners between something and something else if you didn’t think they were some what peers or at least deemed at somewhat as near peers. When all things being equal, the difference between “winner(s)” and “loser(s)” for a particular event are in the “operating system” and the ecosystem that support that operating system. Winning and losing are not permanent state(s) of beings but rather states of minds. There are simply no real good reasons for one of the competitors to be losing consistently and over time when the contests are between two peers or near peers except for the state of mind difference. The other thing is, after winning so many times, there is an extremely high probability that the winning competitor might get bored, sympathetic or just careless and making winning one against the said competitor much easier. 

The sad part is if the perennial contest loser, a peer or near peer of the consistent winner of the contests and all things being equal, still haven’t figured out why the said competitor continuously loses after losing so many times, it’s hard to explain the situation with a “hardware” issue, it’s most likely a “software” issue. Winners have the right attitude that is needed to win. They will frequently learn from their experiences, build up their own competencies, mitigate weaknesses and create the right ecosystem to support their sustainable success. It takes the right internal operating system that is frequently powered by the right attitude to seek the help and resources needed to succeed in the long-term. Yes, the most opportune opportunities do not come every day and not everyone is handed the best cards in a poker game. Ultimately it’s really the players in the game that have to adapt to the situation and environment they are in. Whether the person is prepared for it or not will easy show through results. Winners usually are magnanimous. They are not doing this simply because they are kind. They are doing this because giving other people an opportunity and more specifically an option or pathway to fulfill their own desires make both of their goals intricately tied together. This is how you create an ecosystem around your operating system. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

How to consistently pick winners.

You want the developers in your ecosystem to develop around your operating system and a chain reaction of other Apps and APIs that develop based on the rules and protocols created by such refinements, so on and so forth. You have to continue to improve and be the better you in order to be the better you and better other people to better yourself even more. In this case, being magnanimous to others is simply developing your own core competencies. What are you talking about? What does any of this have to do with picking winners? Game recognizes game. For you to pick winners, you have to know the tendency of winners and how to win. Simply put it, you have to be a winner to know how to pick winners. Sometimes when you are a winner, you can directly influence perennial losers into evergreen winners. Perception sometimes is reality yet not all realities are perceived to be realities. But if you are a global Top Ten-er graduate with a lot of accolades, people will always perceive you for what your potential might be, a real winner. That self-fulfilling prophecy is a lot easier to fulfill when you get all kinds of “respect passes,” resources and accesses. As long as you are half worthy of it, you will probably be a winner. Vice versa, it might be a lot harder to succeed sustainably even when you succeed with a Pyrrhic victory initially, you are already set up for high probability of long-term failure. 

In summation, I know a winner when I see it because it takes a winner to know a winner. If you can’t see a winner when you see a winner, you probably is not a long-term winner. It sounds ridiculous and arrogant, however, it’s probably the truth. These are instincts are etched into the judgmental reflects for quick decision making. These judgment decisions are not always right, but they are right at a high clip that make everyone respect such decisions enough to alter their best interests in favor of your own which makes your best interests theirs too. Is a rim protector just a shot blocker or are they opponent’s shot selection alternators and possibly turn defensive stops into fast break points. Know who you are and who you aren’t before you make important decisions. This is precisely why I personally believe it is much wiser for the average person to buy a major US index fund rather than pick their own stocks. That extra 20% return that a hedge fund may earn over your 10% annual average return is a small price to pay to take advantage of a system that is designed for everyone to win within a certain range and for ample consumption to occur with relative freedom and contentment. This is precisely why I personally prefer the expected value method in investing in alternative assets by pipelining thereby taking into account the alphas and betas. Become a winner first, winners will gravitate toward you.

Just a forewarning, a large number of the sets mentioned on the list will be 2025 MLB baseball sets because these sets will likely contain a large number of some of the best rookie cards in MLB history. At this moment, this rookie class looks better than the 1995 Rodriguez, Jones and Rivera rookie class and could possibly be close to the 1951 Mantle and Mays rookie class. This class already has at the very least four all-stars making the 2026 MLB All-Stars team in Rice, Wood, Baldwin and Kurtz. The scary part about this rookie class is actually its depth. For example, Dalton Rushing, Cam Smith, Daylen Lile, Cam Smith, Colson Montgomery, Agustin Ramirez, Matt Shaw, Max Muncy (Athletics), Cade Horton, Jasson Dominguez (technically speaking he is still considered a rookie in 2025 even though Topps may not be putting the rookie label on his 2025 cards), Dylan Crews, Roki Sasaki and quite a few high potential pitchers all appear to be likely sure fire future all-stars making at least all-star game in MLB. Yes, this is Ohtani’s era, however, there are still near 50, often more, all-star spots to fill each season and on average every year at least a few players get elected to the hall of fame. Due to how deep 2025 rookie card year is, I recommend buying various versions of Topps Update Series instead of Series 1 and Series 2 to get possible full exposure to all MLB baseball cards for that year. As a bonus contents, I will say I have been accumulating a large number of bulk rookie card 5,000 count card boxes from the 2025 MLB baseball rookie year rapidly in the last few months for on average less than $100 USD per box. If you collect basketball cards, think of this year as the baseball equivalent of a 1986 rookie cards from Fleer or if you like football think of it as the 1983 draft year in the NFL. Don’t just look for the regular chase cards in this years, the 2025 Topps Update Series could possibly include rare, true miscut cards where part of the card include a portion of another card. I see these as bonuses that make the non-Chrome Update Series very interesting.

This is what I wrote previously on this topic, “I believe there are many hidden gems in the 2025 baseball rookie cards class. Personally, I have been accumulating Ben Rice and Nick Kurtz rookie cards for months. I been actively looking for these in dollar boxes regardless of condition, which are typically in decent condition given they are newer cards. Surprisingly, I am still able to find large lots of these probably for reasons that I describe below. I anticipate a targeted price of $50 for the average base Ben Rice rookie card and $40 for the average base Nick Kurtz rookie card in approximately five years. It typically requires a player seven years to show signs of GOATesque symptoms proven with upward trajectory in record pacing levels and postseason success. The bottom line is, only GOATesque and plus players will receive perennial public exposure in the long-term after the hype hence their cards are likely the only ones that will see post-inflation adjustment gains after they retire. Both players’ cards will have higher ROI multipliers due to their marketability. 

I believe Ben Rice will be a cultural icon in popular culture as an Ivy leaguer super athlete role model, a career long Mr. Yankees folks hero who will get 400 plus home runs, 2,000 plus hits and a few championships. I think Nick Kurtz will eventually make it to a major market team  where he will be a superstar. The issue here is his fan base will likely mostly be from a team that is not the team name on the jerseys of his rookie cards which might diminish the ROI multiplier a bit. The baseball rookie cards in the 2025 baseball card packs are probably one of the best in the last few decades. We are talking about at least five highly probable future hall of famers in Ben Rice, Nick Kurtz, James Woods, Drake Baldwin and Cade Horton. Daylen Lile and Dalton Rushing also have decent chances of being future hall of famers. I can also identify probably another five players with their rookie baseball cards in 2025 that also have the potential to be hall of famers. This class is top heavy and extensive deep. Some of these players mentioned above are already at record pacing levels. The best part of all this is while all the people are diverting their attention to basketball cards, soccer stickers and modern Pokemon cards, baseball cards are lagging behind its true market value for these cards. Even so, I’m baseball cards, people focus more on the Ohtanis, Judges and other players who are already superstars.”

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

2025 Topps MLB baseball Update Series Retail Blaster Box – MLB baseball rookie cards and rookies are a bit different from the definition of other sports due to its rookie status rules. 2025 will likely go down in MLB baseball cards history as one of the best rookie card years. If you can get this for around $25 to $30 USD, I think that would be a good deal. See the first few paragraphs of this post for reference. 

2025 MLB baseball Topps Chrome Update Series Retail Blaster Box – See the above. If you can get this for around $35 to $40 USD, I think that would be a good deal. 

2025 MLB baseball Topps Chrome Update Series Retail Mega Box – See the above. If you can get this for around $50 USD, I think that would be a good deal. 

2025 MLB baseball Topps Update Series Retail Super Box – See the above. If you can get this for around $50 USD, I think that would be a good deal. 

2025 MLB baseball Topps Update Series Hobby Box – See the above. If you can get this for around $150 USD, I think that would be a good deal. 

2025 MLB baseball Topps Chrome Update Series Delight Box – See the above. If you can get this for around $500 USD, I think that would be a good deal. 

2025 MLB baseball Topps Chrome Update Series Hobby Box – See the above. If you can get this for around $200 USD, I think that would be a good deal. 

2025 MLB baseball Topps Chrome Update Series Jumbo Box – See the above. If you can get this for around $450 USD, I think that would be a good deal. 

2025 MLB baseball Topps Update Series Jumbo Hobby Box – See the above. If you can get this for around $250 USD, I think that would be a good deal. 

2025 – 2026 NBA basketball Topps Match Attax Power Pack – This box is exclusive only to certain East Asian so-called world’s number two economy. They are a collaboration between Topps and a certain company within the said country mentioned above. While I don’t think there are going to many, if any at all all-time-greats in the 2025 NBA draft rookie class, I do find the boxes to be quite good deals around $15 to $20 USD per box with a lot of potentially good inserts and massively available probably due to extremely degraded purchasing power of the so-called world’s second largest economy mentioned above when their people struggle to find jobs or make any resemblance of a living wage by Western standards after experiencing a gradual decline in their domestic economy.   The good thing about this set is these cards are almost exclusively in English and are unique just to that market alone as Topps didn’t even make that set for regions outside of that country. If this set was issued for the US market, I have strong reasons to believe these would be probably at least four times the initial retail issuing price (which was likely significantly cheaper than current online prices) in the said second largest economy. 

Right now, most of the TCG money are going to Pokemon and most of the big spend per unit in sports cards are going to basketball cards while baseball and football cards get more volume purchases.  Typically anything that is 25 years or older can qualify for the “classic” label though the cards communities use the word “vintage” to describe card eras based on significant events that separate vintage era with lower production versus modern era that saw much higher production with sub eras within modern era such as the junk wax era. Vintage cards typically are worth more on average, however, modern production typically include 1/1 RPAs and other numbered special insertions that are more valuable than any specific vintage cards as those sets typically did not include these special insertion and had less variety than modern high-end card sets. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Fortnite – 2019 series 1 Fortnite card boxes are probably extremely underproduced. At the lower hundreds, if you are in the market for these, I believe these are probably some of the best values. Fortnite the game although no longer at its playing peak, is still extremely popular worldwide.

Magic: The Gathering – This franchise is probably the OG of all TCGs created over 30 years ago. While its Alpha and Beta decks are probably out of reach for most people at this point, I think the best value is the 1995 release Ice Age. Despite what people say about its print run size and expected value of cards in pack/deck/box versus market value, I think  around $100 USD for a starter deck and about $1,000 USD for a box are still excellent deals for 30 year plus vintage sealed MTG products.

Garbage Pail Kids – I think the 1985 non-American Series 1 and all other versions of the 1985 box sets from that franchise are good value at a few hundred to a few thousand USD are good value. GPK is crossing genres now and I believe is doing quite well as a franchise. 

Harry Potter – 2001 base set booster box, basically its first edition box, are undervalued at the $1,000 to $2,000 USD range considering its cultural impact and continued franchise successes. Considering how impactful the franchise is, I believe this is one of the best values in the history of TCGs at its current price levels. 

The Simpsons – Its first official TCG box released in 2003 by WOTC is probably a really good deal at around $100. The Simpsons, being one of the longest running animated series in the world has the kind of popular culture and historical relevance that will likely ensure some of its collectibles will have appreciable value over time. 

Digimon – At around a few hundred dollars for the 1999 series 1 first English release, I think it’s an excellent deal. Digimon’s origin as a unique digital pet game and as an animation series that came out around the same time frame as Pokemon and One Piece has the kind of history and cultural relevance storyline to likely appreciate over time for some of its premium cards products.

Ne Zha 2 – However you perceived the franchise and its country of origin, the movie is in the top five in terms of non-inflation adjusted box office revenue, regardless of how it got there…..Many of these boxes are so inexpensive at less than $10 for a full box (and they are mostly official cards from a country where knock-offs are frequently originate from, in this case, selective enforcement of copyrights from a certain entity works in the favor of collectors), they are just too good to pass up on if you are in the market for these items. The artwork, print quality and variety are quite good. One of the main versions is also printed by one of the biggest card companies in the world with collaboration with other top cards companies in the world. The original Ne Zha or the Ne Zha 1 movie from the same franchise set was not a global phenomenon at the level of Ne Zha 2 even though it did have cards from that movie as well. Due to Ne Zha 3 coming out purportedly some time in 2030, Ne Zha 2 cards may do well in the future. 

Pokemon – I think right now the Pokemon card sets with the best value, ranging from less than a hundred USD to the lower thousands USD, are the non-official Pokemon TCG sets. 1999 Merlin Pokemon sticker set, 1999 Burger King Pokemon set, 1996 Carddas Pokemon set and 1995 Topsun Pokemon set. Yes, these are not Pokemon TCG official releases, however, they are officially licensed products associated with the Pokemon franchise. They are also some of the earliest Pokemon card/sticker releases. I think the modern, non-vintage Pokemon cards in terms of value are the 25th anniversary cards especially the ones from McDonald. They could be had for a few dollars per pack and has the Pikachu symbol on it which is quite unique. Overprinted or not, at that price range, it makes sense to acquire these in my opinion if you are in the market for these. 

Yu-Gi-Oh!– Yes, I am not a huge fan of Yu-Gi-Oh! TCG due to reason(s) I previously stated in my earlier posts which is/are mostly due to printing strategy of the franchise/TCG. However, I am still a believer in the franchise and its TCG’s popularity. Its arguably most famous set is the Legend of Blue Eyes White Dragon 1st Edition, created around 2002, are considered the first Yu-Gi-Oh! TCG English version releases. I believe the better value are in the non-English 1st Edition releases that were released later that can go between $1,000 to $3,000 per booster box. 

MetaZoo – I believe the MetaZoo story is not over. Meta Zoo, with new ownership and likely more stable financially, could possibly see its cards worth a lot more in the future. Meta Zoo is unique in that it has innovation like “fourth-wall effects” and the utilization of cryptids in their TCG. The art on these cards are also quite good to be honest. However bloated the hype was, I think at the bottom price levels and with its unique innovations, its mythical themes and akin to Dungeons & Dragons except it is more Western and American individualistic centric versus collaboration centric will have a strong market in the future. I think if you can get MetaZoo Cryptid Nation 1st Edition booster box for around $100 or the Kickstarter version (I believe these are the so called true 1st Editions because MetaZoo were first released via Kickstarter campaign) for about $1000. Technically the non-Kickstarter Edition came out in 2001 versus 2000 for the Kickstarter Edition, however, due to the huge price differences and the fact that they have almost the same name, I think the price difference is too big to not consider the non-Kickstarter version if you are in the market for these cards.

Obviously many other long-running franchises such as Dragon Ball Z, My Little Pony, One Piece, Power Rangers, Star Wars, Disney Lorcana and Ultraman are great too. TPC focuses on value for the common person to beat the odds in terms of ROI. That means many factors such as cash flow constraints, lack of leverage over high-end buyers regardless of market conditions, limitations on basic access to infrastructure such as to grading services and numerous are considers to increase the probability of the success of the underdog. Sometimes an underdog is not a dog because it takes finesse to win against the big dogs. For sustainability and social responsibility purposes, perhaps the winning “underdog” doesn’t always have to be become the “big dog” to remain the “top dog.”

Ever stressed out about money? Yep, many people have dealt with this. Manage cash flow is all about balances. Cash flow does not flow at any one direction. To make money and live happy, you not only have to make money but will also have to spend and/or invest. Some expenditures are no brainers like paying for necessities such as food, transportation, rent/mortgage and some form of entertainment etc. Other expenditures like investments, academics degree pursuits and learning new skills are not so clear cut. These frequently require careful balance between one’s life goals and objectives and the cash flow levels needed to achieve such goals and objectives. Obvious money/cash flow is only one of the many resources required to complete these goals. However, it can not be emphasized enough that money or cash flow give one the option to pursue such endeavors if one is determined to do so. 

I know people frequently talk about how to reduce credit card debts and debts in general by matching interest rates and duration etc. I won’t discuss this topic in this post as that is an after the fact matter. Frankly speaking, once you are able to balance your cash flow properly and set your life’s priorities straight, the resolution methods for those debts will likely become very clear to you. What I want to talk about in this post is the ratio between maintaining a healthy cash flow and pursuing your ambitions. As the old saying goes, it takes money to make money. At the end of the day, it’s just a multiplier game though it can also be a negative multiplier. Do you think it is better to be living paycheck to paycheck if you spend much of your disposable income on travel and entertainment versus you maximizing out your 401(k) or IRA? I think some people might say it depends on the person’s goals and objectives in life which I agree. However, how do you think that person will continuously finance the lifestyle once the person is out of the prime money earning age or run out of money? To put it simply, figurative speaking, to splurge you might just have to first take the plunge. That means you might have to defer your desires to spend initially when you generate little cash flow and gradually splurge more as your cash flow can sustain your lifestyle comfortably.   The other piece to this is “betting/investing” on your self. Do you know Lebron James and other GOATesque athletes spend tens of millions on their bodies to ensure they are in the best athletic shape for their professional athletics career? In a similar vein, many families, including the not so wealthy ones, spend a significant amount of their savings on the education of their children?  Why are they doing that? There are many reasons for this some involve non-financial considerations like trying to be the best they can be in the case of top athletes in the point mentioned above and in the case of the families mentioned above, they want to make sure their children have the best tools to succeed in the modern world.   The financial results are clear. Many of these top athletes can play until their 40s while still making hundreds of millions of dollars per contract. Many of the children who receive the best education have a higher probability of being more financially successful. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

How to manage cash flow when starting from nothing.

Regardless of how much you make or how much you save, in my opinion, the best way to save now is through a 401(k) because your employer will likely contribute a portion of that plus you will most likely defer taxes on the eligible contributions within the states limited of the program. The 401(k) can also be liquid, granted there might be a penalty for early withdrawal. Given the US stock market on average has grown 10%+ annual for nearly 100 years. Per my previous posts, I highly recommend buying index funds that track certain major US indices rather than individual stocks. The stock market is usually top heavy and all relatively. That means over time it usually are a small number of publicly traded companies that appreciate the most. Think about it this way, only around 50 or so of the 500 companies on the Fortune 500 companies list from 70 years ago still exist today. Granted many of these companies might have merged or were acquired, this still give a sense of the reality of the business world. Yes, buying average versus finding the fastest growing  company ever sounds like a big compromise, the reality is the choice is actually between the average versus likely over 50% probability of losing it all and that’s stating this point extremely gently.  The market is full of extremely bright professionals and extremely bright professed professionals. Even many of them have a hard time of “beating” the market average on a sustained basis. Let’s be honest, does having five million versus ten million dollars when you are at your retirement age really make that much of a difference to your lifestyle? I know having almost nothing because you eventually lost it all because you continue to gamble on your savings versus five million dollars probably make a much much more difference to your lifestyle. Don’t take this for granted. In much of the remaining parts of the world, their people can only dream of this type of safety net for the average person. They are frequently mad and sour because they get almost nothing when they retire not to mention little to no social securities benefits like the ones received by many of the population in the US. 

I think the tougher decision is between investment in third parties like index funds via 401(k) versus investment in yourself. Let’s say you are already doing well in your career but is looking to gain additional certification or degrees to make yourself more promotable or learn new skills to make yourself more promotable thereby eventually and hopefully make more money. Fun fact, if you contribute to the 401(k) max annually, usually low five figures plus a small but welcomed additional contribution from your employer for 40 years at 10% average returns, you will have 10+ million in the account at the end of the 40 years although the reality is it will likely continue to grow significantly on its own without any further contributions. On the contrary, if you take 100k out of your cash flow at some point to get a masters at, let’s say, your dream school, is it worth? I don’t have to even calculate this and I think the answer is a resounding yes. With a higher education level hopefully at a great school with a degree in a relevant major to your career, you will probably get a promotion at your current company which likely mean higher pay and possibly higher 401(k) contributions or jump ship to somewhere else that pay you significantly more. The additional cash flow from future benefits of a master’s degree versus putting it into the 401(k) may be more or less, but let’s be honest here, that master’s degree probably mean more to you than another million dollars when you already have like 20 million already. Money will likely grow more money in a dynamic capital market like the one the US has, but not everyone will have the energy nor time to complete a master’s degree when they work a full-time job even if they can afford the tuition.

What I learned over the years is that you will almost never be 100% right on everything. In terms of investing, you can still make money if you are 50% right all the time. At the end of the day, it’s really all about managing risks, reaping returns and managing cash flow. If you are new to the financial market or if you just want stable growth, stick with index funds  that track large US indices like S&P 500 or one of those major non-index fund mutual funds offered by one of the big three US asset manager/brokerage firms. In fact, I believe everyone should have some of these as their portfolio baseline. Picking individual stocks/ETF as well as dabbling in derivatives like options and futures, OTC/Pink Sheets penny stocks and playing with margins etc should be left to the professionals. For one thing, the information gap is huge let alone knowledge and experience gap. You might not even have access to level 2 and level 3 data never mind a certain “terminal.” Heck you might not even have access or know how to do ALCO interest rate sensitivity, duration and gap analysis. You also may not know about the Money Desk to manage cash flow by matching borrowing and invest/loan while keeping a safe amount of liquidity. The US has the best and most stable financial system bar none. At a relatively low-risk return of approximately 10%+ annual returns on equity, which I personally consider it as risk-free plus and too big to fail, I am not a big fan of expend money to buy treasury/debt versus large/mega cap investments via mutual funds. All the extracurricular activities around beating the market to get an extra 5% or whatever like a blank comparing contest is meaningless for the regular person who gets maybe max $100 a year extra minus the fees that is if his or her portfolio is even large enough to participate in that fund/program and having to put up with all the potential snobby bulls*** and p****** scams. Even it reverses to the mean or way below due to aggressive tactics from these funds/programs or can’t get money out, that could create a huge issue for the regular person. 

I personally would just stick with the index funds or non-index funds offered by the big three US asset management/brokerage firms via Roth IRA or 401(k) where the government already designed these tax advantages for everyone who qualify. Look, I get it. In the US there is no debtors’ prison and people can declare personal bankruptcies and could recover a few years later. There are also plenty of social safety nets. Americans also view these people at the most relatively neutral or an antihero while a large number of people actually admire these people’s boldness and believe they will eventually succeed through trials and tribulations. The flip side is opportunity cost and whether these kind of risks are actually commiserate with its potential returns. Moral of the story, keep it simple especially when this game is knee-deep. If you work marginally hard with marginally ambitions and follow the beaten path in investment strategy like 401(k) and Roth IRA via mutual funds from a US-based big three asset management/broker, the safety net and the financial system will ensure you have at least a modest life with a decent retirement nest egg. It’s usually the simple things that if one does consistently well that provide the meat and butter in the long-run. You know what the funny thing is. Even when you are picking stocks that may grow faster than the market returns, your returns in the short-term will likely be based on whether the expectations which are somewhat based on whether earnings guidance from management meets the expectation of the influential institutional investors who are usually the bellwether with dedicated analysts covering that equity recommending a buy, sell or hold pacing market sentiments/expectations for the rest. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Here is what I wrote previously regarding this and similar topic(s).

“I am going to provide a piece of strategy that very few people in the history of this world likely will ever be able to verify. When you have multiple degrees from top ten global universities, worked for nearly 100 Fortune 500 companies in one capacity or another, have numerous professional certificates and licenses, have leadership experience, an internationalist who have seen it all, you rarely have to prove to anyone at all your abilities. For the regular person, it’s all about managing expectation of everyone around you. What is important here is, keep in mind, you will likely only work for around 40 years in your life. This sounds a lot but it really isn’t. Make sure you always have FU money to say no to things that will not be advantageous to you. I think the easiest way to accumulate savings for a regular employee is not through savings in the traditional sense, it’s actually through 401K. Many employers will match a percentage of employee contributions and there are quite a bit of tax benefit with contributions for the contributing employee. In today’s day and age, jumping around a bit is one of the best ways to get career advancement if you are good at controlling the length of employment just long enough to not be considered a job hopper and not long enough to be considered an overstayer. In this day and age, an employment length of six months or a year is not that frowned upon anymore if you have a good reason for it and you don’t do this for every single job. Most people escape bad managers or dead-end jobs but obviously that is not what many future potential employers want to hear. 

Most people don’t get rich from working for other people. Some people will point to the highest paying major professionals like doctors And to say medical doctors are rich. While doctors on average make a great salary on average at around $400K a year, most doctors also have to go through 10+ years of post high school education and become doctors if they qualify after meeting various rigorous criteria in their 30s. Most doctors also have 300K or more in debt before they even become doctors. If one were able to work the approximate ten years during or after college and save that money in a 401(k), just based on market appreciation, an annual total 20K contribution (including contribution from the employer) at average calculated market growth of around 10% growth in 15 years will be $600K+. It also comes with tax advantages which I will not discuss at this time. An HSA for those who qualify in addition to a 401(k) for those who qualify could potentially be even more tax advantaged. Anyway, by the time the doctor pays off his or her debt, the non-doctor already has likely $600K+ in retirement account savings than the doctor has. Because there is a limit in tax advantages 401(k) annual contributions by a person while working for an employer, the doctor can not simply catch-up in 401(k) savings the regular way (unless we are talking about catch-ups exceptions at certain age) by throwing money at it. What this means is even if the non-doctor does not contribute anymore to a 401(k) plan after they saved $600K+ in 401(k) their money will grow to at least a few millions after 30 years more than enough to live comfortably in retirement. Ultimately, neither of these above methods will help one get truly do whatever you want wealthy.”

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

1. Ancient forests with secrets.

When you dream about these places, they usually have some key similarities. They are usually in some remote area with little modernity. They usually have some kind of linkage to some ancient civilizations that no longer exist or suddenly disappeared. The storyline typical also involves some kind of temple, old building, treasures and/or artifacts. Let’s not forget feeling eerily like something or somebody is watching you and monitoring your every move. For starters, the human civilization has been around for around 6,000 years so there will be such places as a result of human activities in these areas. Most of these places will likely be found near significant natural, non-man made water sources like rivers and lakes to easily secure water supplies, food supplies and for irrigation. In rare instances, when the rainfall is extremely low or when the area is experiencing drought, the riverbed becomes visible. Areas next to large non-man made water sources will also frequently be brimming with human activities throughout history because everyone wants to live there and conflicts to secure the area were inevitable. Depending how deep the water source is, its underwater floor may hold secrets beyond imagination not to mention the caves that the underground water usually flow through. The forests themselves may also have secrets such as secret hidden facilities or sites of ancient buildings. 

2. Hidden islands. 

Due to the invention of satellites, most land masses of any kind have been discovered. The undiscovered ones are sandbars that are basically temporarily formed due to sediment deposits found near shore. There could be treasures hiding inside of it. There are likely also near shore islands where small groups of ancient people who wanted a life away from mundanity.

3. Quicksand that lead to a mysterious underground palace.

When heavy rain occurs, places that were hollowed out to construct ancient world underground sites often accompany a collapse of the ground above them. These sites were constructed for a variety of reasons including for defense, storage, dwelling and transportation etc. While many of these places are well-publicized, there are likely many more hidden in ancient manuscripts regarding their locations and whereabouts. It is also to note that many cultures utilized astrological knowledge when constructing sites hence knowing a general area where the site might be in conjunction with astrological knowledge the ancients may have used in constructing such sites may be very helpful in locating these places. 

4. Mysterious settlement on top of a mountain.

In ancient times, hermits, monks and those who were fleeing conflicts often lived in secluded, far flung areas of the world to avoid human contact. In those days, there were no man-made path to go up to the mountain tops. Those that were able to get up worked extraordinary hard to achieve this goal. In areas that rained, these places provided ample water and food sources to feed groups of people. Because many of these people lived there for years, they likely had much of their everyday items and valuable stored in the mountains. Hermits and monks may have left important manuscripts there. Many hermits and monks may have built small monasteries and temples or lived in caves when residing on the mountain tops.

5. Treasures in the attic. 

What if you intentionally do this? Set a side a little amount of money and once in a while buy something you think that will go up in the value then ultimately put into a designed space in your storage room and just forget about it for a long while. When you think about it, aren’t a lot of stories about how someone obtained valuable collectibles either inherited or found in an attic/storage space?

6. Ancient shipwrecks.

See point number two. Those diving equipments are expensive. What if there was a better way to be near a shipwreck location, at shore and still able to scavenge some of the potential treasures that was carried to shore hidden inside of the sentiments on the sandbar?

7. Treasure map. 

When something is already identified as value even if it’s just a conduit to finding something valuable, that derivative will likely be valuable too. However, there are also are a lot of treasure maps that are probably forgeries that lead to no where. The best bang for the buck treasure hunting methodology is probably finding clues in the media like books. Many ancient names and sites of even general areas are considered lost or ambiguous never mind finding the exact locations. Again, here is where knowledge and experience will allow you to see and interpret something different from others which may increase your success rate. 

8. Immortality.

In reality, this already exist in nature for a few organism including the flatworm which has a brain. With AI and advances in bio-technological advances, it is likely within one or two centuries the human brain with its billions of neurons will be mapped out and with cell reproduction fully controllable, the human conscience could likely be downloaded, uploaded and transferred. The flatworm literally could grow a brain when it is sliced into half and still keep its old memories in its new beak . 

9. Fountain of unlimited wealth.

Not trying to be funny or anything, but this one is probably the easiest to obtain. It is called compound growth. Any IRA may probably can do that nowadays with the right investment strategy. 

10. Time travel to change the past and impact the future.

Maybe this will happen in a few centuries though time travel backward is probably very difficult. The reality is, the past affect the future and the future is impacted by the past. The causality is almost undeniable. The best way to affect the past is to change the anticipated outcome to the desirable outcome in the future. Literally one of the biggest reasons why someone that want to change the past is because it created an undesirable outcome for the future that one may have regretted that it happened. By doing things right the first time whenever possible and making rectifications to one’s best abilities is probably the most realistic methodology to utilize in lieu of a time machine.

I will write extensively on each of these ten topics in upcoming posts. 

Listen to me very carefully. First thing first,  if you can, conceal your newly found wealth and your connections to such wealth as best as you can. Human nature is such that people will get jealous, enviously and/or both especially from those who are the closest to you who knows you and/or have access to your time. The next 72 hours will be critical to whether you can sail to the sunset or not. You will need every second of that. Don’t act any different just yet especially do not change your address, phone number or anything else that would give away that something is up with you in the eyes of your close ones. We are in the age of AI where many things can be resolved on your own without disclosing much information to others and especially not in an integrated manner where your motivations, movements and current situation can be decoded and translated into a coherent true story. In the Western world where there are rules and personal freedoms and rights, privacy itself is typically not difficult to obtain. To ensure your name and associated information are not disclosed to the public, it usually takes filling out form(s) to obtain an anonymity and if private information are necessary to be provided, you could always appeal through various legally compliant processes.

It does take time and money to obtain sometimes which I think in this case it likely will be worth it if the amount is reasonable, which usually are. Regardless the process time, starting the process sooner is usually better than later. Make sure you take care everything by yourself. You shouldn’t really need anyone’s help to get your own privacy in order. For cash or cash equivalent related assets, make sure you store these with the top three US-based financial institutions and/or asset management firms by asset under management (AUM) size. They will likely allow you to choose how you would like to allocate your funds. For large sums of cash in the millions, you probably don’t want these to be put into bank accounts as they will not offer FDIC protections of $250K is per depositor per the entire bank regardless of how many accounts are opened or how many branches of the same bank these amounts are allocated to. To keep up with inflation, putting these into financial institutions that allow investment accounts like the Roth IRA offering certain tax advantages are probably the way to go if legally compliant to do so. For non-cash related assets, the wisest thing to do if you are not in the investment or that particular assets’ space, it’s probably to sell it. But before you do, make sure you have enough FU money to not sell it if the price is not right based on your extensive research. I recommend to safeguard the cash and cash equivalents first then manage the non-cash related assets. That way, you won’t be in such a hurry to sell everything and take huge, probably unreasonable haircut. Remember, however legally you obtained those assets, the assets have an intrinsic value that someone/some organization probably worked hard to create. Just because you now own it with relative easy, does not mean it was obtained or created in ease by the original owner(s). 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Here is what I wrote previously on this and similar topic(s).

“I am going to provide a piece of strategy that very few people in the history of this world likely will ever be able to verify. When you have multiple degrees from top ten global universities, worked for nearly 100 Fortune 500 companies in one capacity or another, have numerous professional certificates and licenses, have leadership experience, an internationalist who have seen it all, you rarely have to prove to anyone at all your abilities. For the regular person, it’s all about managing expectation of everyone around you. What is important here is, keep in mind, you will likely only work for around 40 years in your life. This sounds a lot but it really isn’t. Make sure you always have FU money to say no to things that will not be advantageous to you. I think the easiest way to accumulate savings for a regular employee is not through savings in the traditional sense, it’s actually through 401K. Many employers will match a percentage of employee contributions and there are quite a bit of tax benefit with contributions for the contributing employee. In today’s day and age, jumping around a bit is one of the best ways to get career advancement if you are good at controlling the length of employment just long enough to not be considered a job hopper and not long enough to be considered an overstayer. In this day and age, an employment length of six months or a year is not that frowned upon anymore if you have a good reason for it and you don’t do this for every single job. Most people escape bad managers or dead-end jobs but obviously that is not what many future potential employers want to hear. 

Most people don’t get rich from working for other people. Some people will point to the highest paying major professionals like doctors And to say medical doctors are rich. While doctors on average make a great salary on average at around $400K a year, most doctors also have to go through 10+ years of post high school education and become doctors if they qualify after meeting various rigorous criteria in their 30s. Most doctors also have 300K or more in debt before they even become doctors. If one were able to work the approximate ten years during or after college and save that money in a 401(k), just based on market appreciation, an annual total 20K contribution (including contribution from the employer) at average calculated market growth of around 10% growth in 15 years will be $600K+. It also comes with tax advantages which I will not discuss at this time. An HSA for those who qualify in addition to a 401(k) for those who qualify could potentially be even more tax advantaged. Anyway, by the time the doctor pays off his or her debt, the non-doctor already has likely $600K+ in retirement account savings than the doctor has. Because there is a limit in tax advantages 401(k) annual contributions by a person while working for an employer, the doctor can not simply catch-up in 401(k) savings the regular way (unless we are talking about catch-ups exceptions at certain age) by throwing money at it. What this means is even if the non-doctor does not contribute anymore to a 401(k) plan after they saved $600K+ in 401(k) their money will grow to at least a few millions after 30 years more than enough to live comfortably in retirement. Ultimately, neither of these above methods will help one get truly do whatever you want wealthy.”

Yes, yes and yes. Ohtani will likely also break Barry Bonds’ fourth consecutive MVPs record as well. Bonds will likely not be considered a GOAT due to the main issue that prevented him from getting into the hall of fame and for not getting the magical MLB 3,000 hits number by a few dozens hits. Ohtani is probably one of the if not the most liked baseball statistical superstars in the history of the sports. Ohtani always never played in Bonds’ era. If we compare Ohtani with Aaron Judge, yes, Judge is probably the more powerful hitter with higher home run peaks, however, Judge at 34 years old has similar injury trajectory as Mike Trout except Trout had already hit nearly MLB 300 home runs before the injury issues essentially slowed his career down and Trout was only around 27 years old at the time. At the same age, Judge barely hit MLB 100 home runs in the majors. Trout already at around 420 home runs and only around 34 years old and has four more contract years with the Angels after this year will likely reach 500 plus home runs by the end of his career. The real on the field related issue with Judge in terms of breaking the home run record is age. He will likely return to the field in September of this year missing most if not all of the post season. He also is an elite defender which means the Yankees can’t afford to make him the DH which means increased injury risks. Oblivious he is not like Ohtani who also pitches which means for Judge to be the GOAT he really need to earn it via offense only which he will likely not be able to do so. All this is to mean in Ohtani’s era there will be no one who is overall better than him perhaps not even offensively better than him. 

Ohtani is turning 32 this season, however, due to his baseball focused mindset and conditioning, he will likely play at elite levels for another 10 years and probably can play three to five years after that. He is likely getting 320 career home runs this season. If we expect an average of 35 home runs a season for the next ten seasons, we are talking about 350 additional home runs. If you count an additional five non-prime career years of 20 home runs a year, Ohtani can realistically break Bonds’s career home run record and likely the seven MVPs record. Given Ohtani is literally a prime money maker for the MLB, Ohtani will likely be able to get records by trying to achieve different things every season that means for one of these reasons he could also focus on just the single season home run record which he has a realistic chance of achieving if he only DH and nothing else. Unfortunately Judge will likely not be in the same position to do so. Ohtani will also likely get 3,000 hits as well. The more important thing is, Ohtani could realistically contend for the World Series championship every season and could probably win 5-7 in his career, Bonds didn’t even win one and Judge likely already near the end of his prime also has none while Ohtani already has two, one beating Judge’s Yankees the other one probably one of the greatest if not the greatest World Series win of all-time. When you add Ohtani’s WBC wins and its iconic moment plus his two-way hitting and pitching, it will be extremely difficult to argue Ohtani is any less GOAT than Babe Ruth when Ohtani played against professionals not against people who also had other jobs on the side. Ohtani also is a global superstar who is help MLB expand the game globally. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Here is what I wrote about this and similar topics previously.

“The reality is they are unfortunately playing in the same era as prime Ohtani, Judge and arguably the most talented era in MLB history. Baseball just became super exciting again with all the rule changes, global stars, competitive teams and various intriguing storylines. Baseball as a sport appears to be growing significantly globally. The World Baseball Classic becoming popular, baseball’s return to the Olympics and the fact that baseball is spreading from Asia bellwether pop culture centers like Japan, South Korea and Japan into Southeast Asia is a very important trend for the sport. Because baseball and cricket are very similar, there is a good chance it could get a piece of that 2.5 billion fan market.

All this to say is that because the much larger pie for all, I think rookie cards of these four players are good value. I tend to think baseball has the highest career longevity of all the sports for players who are good at what they do. It is not exceptionally uncommon to see baseball players in the MLB play to their mid 40s. However, the players who play to their mid 40s may likely are chasing something record wise. Many of these players start in the league in their very early 20s. Hence when I am buying rookie cards of new MLB players, I typically look for guys who make to the league early, play a premium position, has height and can either hit or pitching or both with power. Of course I look at their minor league stats as well to analyze their potentials. And yes, because my rookie cards pipeline strategy also entails maximizing upside risk and with almost insignificant downside risk when I can buy maybe a box of 4,000 of inderrated new player rookie cards for less than 100 dollars, I am able to also get rookie cards of Patrick Mahomes, Steph Curry and for sure Aaron Judge when they first came out. Of course, most of these cards won’t be worth the storage cost after a while within a given time range, hence every year I either donate those cards or give them away to friends.

I think that within 30 years there will be a *clean new all-time home run record given progressively better training, conditioning and athletics nutrition programs. Many players are able to regularly hit 50 and occasionally 60 home runs a season at the moment already. I think it is doable currently for a power hitter comes into the league at 20, and starts hitting on average 50 home runs at 26 for 10 years and average around 23 home runs for the other 12 years in the league. I also tend to believe if the all-time home run record can be broken the single season home run record can also be broken likely by the same player. I also think that player will also be able to get 3,000 hits as well. As great as Shohei Ohtani is, I think there will likely be a better American version of him within the next 50 years given the high athlete percentage in total US population. I believe two-way players in the MLB will become much more common in the future hence traditional one-way pitchers may not be as valued by teams as before. The superstars who aspire to be GOATs in baseball and really in many major sports leagues, barring early career-ending injuries can play 20 plus years and typically is expected to play 15-20 years in order to chase records and greatness. That means at any point once they become established as at least a GOATesque trajectory player, their cards will be at somewhat peaked levels within a given range. Obviously if they become GOAT, their cards may very well appreciate even more from their cards’ peak values, however, if they don’t at least maintain GOATesque overall career level at the conclusion of their professional sports career, their cards’ values may drop from the peak value gradually.

I can’t say this enough. GOATs may change from time to time. Investing in a player because the player is the current GOAT is a losing proposition. The smarter move is to form a pipeline of inexpensive investments that may have high potentials on a periodic and continuously basis. Liquidity is king. You won’t have much bargaining powers if you are not liquid. You won’t be able to wait things out because they need cash flow. Being illiquid is an easy way to be taken advantage is. Even if someone is willing to buy something illiquid from you (smart investors will likely do research on your current financial and overall situation), you may have to sell your assets at heavy discounts. Part of having FU money is the ability to say no when saying no is advantageous to you. Not having the ability to do so may be detrimental to your financial well-being. This is precisely why I don’t recommend regular people to spend a large sum of money on illiquid assets that will hurt their cash flow significantly. What most people may not realize is momentum begets more momentum. When you are up and everyone sees it, people are likely to help you financially. When you are down, regular people will be hesitant to do so because their financial resources are limited and they can’t afford to gamble on you paying them back. The financial investors and institutions are likely even more stringent on the risk evaluation side.”

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

1. A certain East Asia country becoming number one in total GDP. 

For obvious reasons, I won’t name that country by name but I think everyone knows who that is. Current prevailing total GDP reporting for a give country is based on real GDP which on paper exclude inflation and deflation from base year. I see this real GDP reporting methodology as a lagging indicator as economies that are experiencing deflation may temporarily experience a rise in real GDP due to lower producer input prices/PPI and lower price pass through to consumers. When competition become cutthroat, wage decreases, foreign capital flight occurs in a lagging manner a few years later (due to switching cost mostly due to fixed investments, exit barriers and political reasons), the real GDP growth will be in big trouble regardless of selective it is being measure. The other issue is there are no weights assigned to the intangibles that actually drive a modern economy. Long-term deflations means uncertainty and uninvestability as the whole point of investing is to generate higher future returns. If something cost less tomorrow than today and producers are price takers with massive volume, consumers can afford to wait to buy the big ticket items at a significantly cost a while longer when they actually need it. 

The two most important pieces in GDP calculation should be consumption and private investments. Consumption and private investments in most normal economies private the most jobs and are the biggest piece by far in revenue generation. Whoever is building billions of un-dwelled living quarters that technically cannot be owned by private individuals for a population in significant decline and at a 1 to 3 human to house ratio and approximately 1 to 10 household members to house ratio obviously cannot be criticized. However, the aftermath will be what it is, no one will be able to cover up.

Massive government spending as one of the primary derives of GDP by certain unnamed country per the above usually come with gigantic amount of debts which raises questions about quality of GDP growth. Import and export ratio in terms of trade surplus or deficit calculations also yield strong signs of how the trade surpluses come about. In conjunction with calculation on the profitability of such exports and its source of profits be it geographical regions or governmental subsidies are additional telltale signs of the quality of its GDP growth. Not adjusting for debt fueled GDP growth when it should be taken into account is another indication certain unnamed country is exploiting loop holes again. Unsurprising as its trustworthy levels are at all-time lows. The real GDP calculations also do not account for the percentage of people who actually smile on the streets, are genuinely happy with their lives, buy mostly foreign goods, refuse to have children nor ambitions and its elite moving their wealth to Western nations. Everyone wants the best possible life. You can’t possibly tell me consumers ignore price-quality ratio for patriotism of their own country’s products in the long-term. Consumers in all countries are quite savvy when it comes to stuff like this. You will also have a hard time convincing me that Purchase Power Parity (PPP) or GDP is the right measure for your country’s economic situation when it is a relatively closed-off country/economy with lack of international competition in its domestic economy, products that are made come with a side of fraud/unethicalness/slave labor/populating/potential illness, lack of freedom, human rights and censorship where people literally go disappear forever, lose organs or appear in confinement without their families and friends even knowing for exercising simple freedoms that people in Western societies take for granted. No amount of bot comments or subsidized influencers gathering in some far-flung city of the abovementioned country can change what it is. PPP is particularly ridiculous as modern human beings don’t consume for survival, they consume for lifestyle. PPP and GDP current calculation methodology no longer reflect the survival to lifestyle shift in human societal evolution where sentiments are more important than manipulatable data from non-transparent, non-credible and non-ethical sources. 

Contrary to no-TPC popular belief, the most serious future issue the abovementioned country will experience will be disintegration of its made-up “ethics unity” no matter how hard it tries to force language and cultural unity. There are tens of thousands of distinct languages in that country. Most of the country is in reality made up of tens of thousands of different ethnicity groups packaged into one supposed majority ethnicity group to enhance ethics unity. Most of these languages are so incomprehensible to each other their linguistic difference are no smaller than the linguistic differences between various European languages. They also can’t censure these things because many of these ethnics groups have spiritual sanctuary in nearby sovereign countries where most of their compatriots are based. Their DNA bloodlines are also quite pure comparing with those in the West because of xenophobic tendacies in the said country throughout history. Most of these people also have a lot of beef with each other where racism and stereotypes are rampant. As soon the common prosperity and they can’t feed themselves again which have been a repeating theme throughout their history, they will start to rip each other’s throats again. For this to happen, it will only take a temporary collapse in their system, a few more month of unpaid wages for securities personnel and for them to be hungry for a while, for young male to not have jobs and for some kind of leader to emerge who also takes advantage of the complex external geopolitical situation. All of these things are already well under their way some of these are pretty much already completed.

2. A certain territory next to the said East Asia country in point number one will be occupied.

No, see point number one. Also read about the collapse of this country’s Northern, former superpower, big brother and how it collapse. Not exactly the same reasoning but similar enough to repeat again in the next few decades. If you have People or Socialism in the name of your country, perhaps you should consider making their lives happier as a top priority which doing the exact contrary and only benefiting the few who end up allocating their family and wealth in Western countries anyway, may probably won’t end too well for your country no manner how much you monitor your own people or try to ban them from leaving.

3. US will lose its sole super power status. 

No for all the reasons stated in points one and two. Probably not in this century and next century majority of human societies might not even be exclusively on Earth. Two oceans, no natural enemies, seemingly unlimited resources, lots of allies, significant immigration from foreign elites, strongest military and seemingly unlimited wealth generation all says it will be impossible for it to lose its sole superpower throne on Earth.

4. AI, robots, virtual reality and other  technological advances will virtually replace human beings.

The biggest issue that will prevent any of that from truly replacing human beings is ethics. Yes, current technology has technological limitations on the human nuanced nitty gritty actions. Yes, decision makers need to ensure the transition stage is not sudden but rather gradual to prevent societal issues. The ethics issue is real because ethics is a code of conduct that make the human society rule based and not a free for all. That means in free, democratic societies it has to consider the interest of all equally or risk social upheaval while in less free and democratic societies it has to consider risks to the ruling class from the masses. There are many restrictions on AI today due to ethical reasons that can make asking AI to provide information from analyzed data on real statistics like life saving truth such as which neighborhood and demographics to avoid from a risk probability standpoint virtually impossible to find. Yet those are the things what AI can be the most useful: to provide heartless cold truth most humans are unable to say out loud due to social contract reasons living in Western societies. If such things are confronted face-on, like putting someone or a demographic group on a performance improvement plan (PIP), then true societal evolutionary stage will occur and those that don’t comply, like being on a PIP, will eventually be asked to leave. That is what MEI, meritocracy based diversity should be all about. Some people will say, it is a free country with no prevalent exit bans, if you don’t like it, you are welcome to move to the country mentioned in point number one. You may just end up enjoying the amount of freedom, common wealth/prosperity, mental hospital/jail stays where they tube feed you an unlimited amount of schizophrenic medicine while electro-shock your brains for saying “crazy things” while also “borrowing your organs” and the unlimited amount free speech and “exercise through labor and rehabilitation” they say you can exercise and enjoy over there while your family and friends frantically looking for you only to also be enjoying the same thing if they were looking for you if they lived there as well….XD

5. Space exploration will peak.

Everything has stages. The pioneer stage is usually a small group of people. Due to technological and resource limitations as well as geopolitical divide on Earth, space exploration will take time for the first stage to be complete. Due to the same resource limitations on Earth, once the final significant geopolitical impediment is resolved on earth, that’s when the sole winner will like devote all of Earth’s resources through market force driven “voluntary international collaborations” to ensure the technological advancements and resources are there for full-throated, merit-based, natural selection based evolutionary migration into space. Earth could still contain the majority of the non-selected and be used as a dumping group for space garbage. Evolution and natural selection await for no one. Either you get on the PIP and improve or you will be left out by history. One of the reasons why certain demographics groups are so upset with the teachings of certain elite tertiary institutions that teach, promote and patronize human-made ethos contrary to evolutionary logics. 

6. A certain consensus number one university in the world will continue to be the consensus number one university in the world. 

I hate to say this but the school is no longer exclusive and pure (has been deflowered, no longer sacred nor sanctimonious) in the eyes of certain people due to diversity related past overcorrections and Supreme Court admission rulings. When other elite schools started to offer free tuition or are in the process of doing so and banned legacy admissions process, exclusivity probably got thrown out of the window all together. The biggest baggage is its origin of being a private, undergraduate liberal arts studies focused college for the colonial era, pre-industrial elites that frequently ruffled the feathers of the meritocracy in new world of STEMS and graduate level research that are often state funded. Granted liberal arts is a big money maker in Western societies and is a spiritual pillar to liberal freedoms, the weight of its importance will ultimately decline in this century however. And yes, the switching cost for others to no longer view it as the consensus number one is minimal to nothing and there are legitimately at least five S or S-tier schools in the US and two in the UK that is near its level and will exceed its level in a few years, already is at its level or had already exceeded its level.

Now the last barrier for that university to lose its consensus number one status is the barely standing facade of a gate. History will likely view their biggest failures to maintain its position as the mesh-mash strategy. Trying to be in the extremes of prestige and rigid social status gatekeeper while ultimately have its defenses broken yielding to social pressure of non-elite/purely merit and status based decision making. If one already anticipated this will be the ending, one probably could have prepared this occasion much better than the forced hands approach it is currently enduring. While the new billionaire is now the trillionaire, this university is still dabbling in the mid double-digit billion endowment range no where near close to exceed triple-digit billion endowment range in the next decade nearly three decades of being in this range. One could argue that it never had an absolute advantage over other schools as it might literally be a replica of a school from England and that even its comparative advantages have disappeared relative to other schools. Even those who may have graduated from the school likely don’t agree with many of its values. Its biggest challenge could be if in the future either a school decided to leave the Ivy League or if an invited member to the Ivy League publicly reject the invitation. The dangerous to the top and bottom of the schools within the league will be most significant while the middle of the pack will probably think about exiting themselves. The disdain for how stuck up this school is and its now perceived bandwagoning nature is stronger than ever will likely will not bode well for the future of the school. The day when the top US leader graduated from its neighboring STEMs focused school and a degree from a liberal arts school, the importance of science meritocracy will likely hit its peak and the US will likely near its win against its existential nemesis. 

7. The future majority recognized number one university in the world will  not be a US Ivy-Plus school.

Yes, see point number six. Most likely, it will be a STEMs focused school with world-class liberal arts studies as well. 

8. The collectible cards market will not exceed $100 billion dollars and collectibles in general will not exceed $1 trillion dollars. 

Yes, the key to this will be the market penetration rate of cards as an important media for conveying messages. When literally every marketing strategy also includes creating a cards product because people love cards. 

9. Crypto currency market will not permanently decline as centralization occurs.

The technology side from the crypto currency boom like block chain will probably still strive, the rest probably not. Sovereign governments who have currency issuing authorities within their jurisdiction will have every incentive to digitize their own currency in a centralized manner. The potential instability, criminal, moral and speculative/gambling aspects of crypto will likely be too much for authorities to ignore. I foresee regulations will not be enough to save crypto currency from eventually and mostly merging into digitized versions of the national currency system. 

10. There won’t be another world war.

In whatever forms, there likely will eventually be one that ultimately translate into a new paradigm to further human integration and allow the human race to reach its goals. 

I will write extensively on each of these ten topics in upcoming posts. 

I want you to remember this, you can master your own destiny. When you are down to nothing, some people might tell you to do whatever it takes to survive. While I agree to the survival part, I disagree on the whatever it takes part. If the whole notion of surviving is to see better days, the doing whatever it takes approve might bring on liabilities even imminent ones that could contradict the intended aim. On the contrary, I think the best way to survive is to actually minimize all liabilities through complete risk reduction or via risk mitigation. The bottomline is, match your current social-economic status with your risk and societal contribution profile. Which roughly translate to you don’t owe anyone anything and would be better served as an economic aid recipient than a net economic contributor. Society’s expectations of you is near zero at this point anyway and the US and many Western valued nations have strong safety nets for those in this exact situation. Granted the incentives for those who come from an incentivized background have strong inclinations to get out of this situation is also particularly strong hence those who are in this situation typically does so out of necessity. Obviously your favorite TPC can’t say much more beyond this point regarding demographic groups due to social contract reasons, but I think you get my point.

How do you cut down on the liabilities? While, for one, since you are starting from zero financial wise, you probably have a lot of time on your hands or is not pressured on time. Hence the car, the lifestyle and other things that you use to needed probably is no longer needed. Sell anything that belongs to your previous life as fast as you need to even if that meant to undersell your assets. Use this money to get a safe but economical place to stay immediately that matched with what you can afford for at least two months. Getting food and water legally for free when you are down to nothing usually are the easier parts to all of this because most people and organizations see allowing someone hungry to get fed as good karma in almost all Western societies. Shelter is different from a psychological and safety standpoint to most potential donors. Next, make sure you can get a prepaid smart phone and mobile plan that you can use legally. These two things are critical from an upward mobility standpoint. If you want a job, you will likely need to leave contact information for them to reach out to you if they are interested. With a smart phone with mobile services, you can potentially do everything you need from a job finding prospective. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

How to survive and thrive when you are down to almost nothing.

Yes, bank accounts, credit cards and mailboxes all seem to be important, but remember, you are matching cash flows at this point meaning you need to focus on things that will eventually yield positive cash flow. After that, you have stabilized your life some what and is progressively moving upwardly, you need to start think about why you are down to almost nothing. This is a critical step for you to resolve your inner demons whatever that maybe to be on the road to recovery. In Western societies, opportunities are almost everywhere and safety nets are there for those who know where to find them, the biggest priority is getting through the emergency and preventing that and similar issues from happening again. Whatever legally compliant job you ultimately secure, make sure it will allow you to save in the long-term such as being able to enroll into an employer sponsored 401K plan with potential contributions from employers and yielding tax advantages as well. Try to stay at the job for at least six months not so much because of stay less time could create a blemish on your resume, but rather, once you learn how to do a job well, you will have a much easier and less stressful life therefore can afford to achieve other things that can ultimately help you become more job market secure. Once your life becomes more stable in all aspects, use your experiences and fear of falling into that situation again for your own advantage. The biggest advantages gained from this ordeal are probably maturity, discipline, ambition and tenacity. These traits will probably increase the probability of future success. Whatever you believe in, make sure you have a way to channel optimism in life as there will be highs and lows throughout your lifetime. Make sure you have a way to conjure hope and desire to keep you going and make meaning out of life even though you likely know how it likely will end regardless. 

Having the bodaciousness to march toward a perilous path prudently brings you powers that you probably never imagined you have. This era right now is the age of swift changes which means the bold and ready will either fail spectacularly or strive out of no where. This is precisely why you don’t want to be on any of these outlier extremes because they leave gaping holes of opportunities for the value scrappers. In this age, the value scrapers won’t be celebrated nor noticed because of high opportunity cost of missing out on the extremes. Hence you will likely have an easy life of letting others take all the glory and risks while you stay relatively low keys while accumulating wealth in a relatively risk free manner. Chances all, the average person who is reading into this types of subject matters today from an average expected value standpoint will benefit significantly from the actual full-fledged commonplace implementation of AI, virtual reality, space exploration, time travel, conscious and cognitive reincarnation, immortality nor any of the other major fascinations throughout history humans have desired but now is closer to reality than ever before. If you understand this point, you will see technology for what it is, a way to get rich except as a common person you likely won’t directly benefit such as being able to get allocation for hyped imminent announced IPO stocks. What you can do in lieu of that is to simply get the good scraps that these people no longer desire therefore are cheap to buy. When these people start to like what they previously snubbed again, your assets probably will be worth much more. A lot of values in investments are based on future expectations anyway. Who is to say a well-educated and extensive experiences common person’s perception of reality is of lower quality than those who are likely similar but are wealthier? Most predictions are wrong, the ones that are right are usually the ones people talk about. 

The most important lesson here: keep calm, don’t try to solve everything at once and prioritize on obtaining necessities like food, shelter, health and safety then start thinking about next few moves. It’s only when you are able to think that life may start to get better. Pegging back on the same principles and applying these concepts to the investing world, to become sustainably good in the long-term, you will most likely need to build the foundations of your portfolio, whatever that maybe. To do so, you have to first know what you are doing including how to identify and evaluate investment opportunities however small it is. Pouring a large amount of resources into something you are not too familiar with usually don’t end too well. Opportunities can be positive life changing events for the prepared but can equally be a disaster for those who are not prepared yet still decide to gamble away their future. Seizing an amazing opportunity like closing a deal requires some luck no doubt, but to do so consistently may take years of fundamental preparations. Many people do win some times, but to win often and mitigating losses from defeats take real skills and experience. Typically, starting capital is required to do almost anything which reinforces the phrase “it takes money to make money.” However, in the TPC world, Money is medium of exchange for resources. Surprising enough, there are many other types of medium of exchanges besides money, like time hence the phrase time is money. Using time to substitute for money is basically investing in something that is so beyond “out of the money” range that there is almost no pressure in failure.

Like anything else in life, it takes time to become established. Not having ample disposable income to invest be it in mainstream investments, collectible cards or in other alternative assets just mean you will have to take it slowly but that doesn’t mean you won’t be able to in the long-run. In my opinion, the best cash flow and risk-adjusted ROI investments in collectible cards are the small dollar in aggregate yet large bulk purchases.  These are the kind of deals that allow you to buy with $50 for like 5,000 cards. Unsurprisingly, these deals are not that commonplace to find but they are also not that difficult. These deals can definitely be found in the wild once in a while, however, in order to save transaction cost including but not limited to driving to a bunch of places, these kinds of deals are typically offered on a consistent basis to those that the vendor have an established relationship with. Establishing a relationship with these vendors usually does not require much except being polite and showing some intention and abilities to buy something. Believe it or not, transaction costs will end up being one of the biggest costs and mental fatigues when you are implementing this type of buying strategy. With the popularity of case breaking, there will be a large sum of relatively undesirable cards that vendors that engage in these activities want to get out of their site ASAP. The mentality of many of these breakers is about getting that big chase card and some very good cards, many may not want to spend a large sum on shipping fees to get all the non-chase cards back which could be a lot of cards per day for a breaker to keep in a locale at any given time. There are scrap dealers that collect metal scrap from business for fractional of a penny on the dollar, sometimes for free and other times getting paid to haul it all away all together. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

How to make money in alternative assets when you have no dispensable income.

Think yourself as the card scrapper who actually is part of the card vendor’s supply chain. Obviously what you could get from doing so depend on what the vendor actually is willing to get rid of in bulk, I think the prize are not necessarily the common-common cards but rather the rookies and other non-common cards. Most likely, the rookies you get from implementing this strategy will be the non-hyped up players, however, remember this, the hyped up players, the high draft picks, the rookie of the years and the all-star rookies do not usually make up all of the future hall of famers in a rookie class. In fact, I estimate probably near half of the future hall of famers are the players that gets very little publicity. The issue is, these players typically take longer to develop professionally and their card values will only rise once they obliterate most if not all doubts with superstar like performances. 

I think in a 5,000 card count box of baseball rookie cards issued in the last three years of the acquisition date and after seven years of acquisition, that cost approximately $50-$100 dollars, you might get 30 future anniversary team level, 70 future hall of frame level, 100 future borderline hall of fame level and maybe 200 future outside chance hall of fame level rookie cards. The rest of the cards are probably are not going to be worth much. The superstars who aspire to be GOATs in baseball and really in many major sports leagues, barring early career-ending injuries can play 20 plus years and typically is expected to play 15-20 years in order to chase records and greatness. That means at any point once they become established as at least a GOATesque trajectory player, their cards will be at somewhat peaked levels within a given range. Obviously if they become GOAT, their cards may very well appreciate even more from their cards’ peak values, however, if they don’t at least maintain GOATesque overall career level at the conclusion of their professional sports career, their cards’ values may drop from the peak value gradually. All this to say is, based on the estimation provided in the above, and presuming a $20 average rookie card value for the anniversary team level player’s rookie cards, we are talking about $600 just for the those cards in the box and probably $1,000 of value for the whole box after approximately 10 years after acquisition. 

Yes, I really wrote 10 years. Unfortunately that’s the trade off for using time as the primary medium of exchange to invest. However, what if you bought multiple boxes a year every year for the next 20 years in addition to earnings from a regular job and potentially 401k? Now that wait really don’t seem that bad. An approximate 20X in 10 year period even if it’s only paper gains until it is sold with higher liquidity risks are probably not that bad given how small of an investment it is to the average working person. I think even heavily giving it a haircut of a discount rate for liquidity, maintain, storage and other costs, we are probably talking about a return level much much higher than the S&P in the same period. Plus, if you enough the hobby, you know this is actually pretty fun to do and pretty enjoyable to look at than showing people your securities investment’s stock charts. People who are in this hobby love cards. Having big cards at the shows is certainly a conversation starter, in that aspect, no different from collecting art pieces in front of the right crowd. Once you get some good rookie cards, you may consider upgrade by executing trades of your rookie cards for autograph cards. Autograph cards, specifically Numbered rookie-patch-autograph cards (numbered RPAs) of GOATs or GOATesque players have astronomical multipliers on the open market. The logic goes like this, every rookie card is a card and every numbered RPA is an RPA, a numbered card, a rookie card, a patch card and/or an autograph card and of course is also a card. 

Contrary to public opinions, due to the variation overprinting of number cards, I don’t believe a 1/1 RPA should be any more than 20X of a /5 or less non-1/1 RPA for a card of the same attributes except for the difference in variation and numbered to unit. Anything greater than that multiplier for the same attributes mentioned above may have significant arbitrage opportunities. I also believe autographs are inherently unique anyways. I would also probably gradually de-risk my portfolio unsystematic by diversifying my asset allocation while not diversify so much that creates significant variable transaction fees. People often say diversification doesn’t necessarily work for de-risking systematic risk. However true that is, I think the other way to think about this is what system are we talking about here? If the alphas and betas are vastly different across markets and your assets are global and not just regional with a wide spectrum of price ranges creating easy arbitrage opportunities, in that case, the issue here are not so much the system but rather the universal transaction fees that may need to be optimized while trading across diversified market places. In summation, Point being, everything is possible when you know what possible is and when you can take on the impossible whenever possible.

My number one rule for selecting institutions of higher learning is, when the rankings gap of the intended major of study between universities and/or colleges in consideration are not gigantic, choose the school that has the highest overall rankings. Why? In the real world, a highest prestigious school have the means and determination to be world-class at everything they do. For example, the Ivy League schools were originally heavily focused on the arts and humanities, not much different from many liberal arts colleges at the time. In the years since, they have poured in billions in funding to “catch up” with the public and the technological-focused schools which many would say they have mostly succeeded at. MIT which is one of those technological-focused schools I described above, have poured billions to catch-up on arts and humanities. Some Ivy League and Ivy Plus schools may even have cross-registration arrangements for their respective students to be able to take classes at each other’s schools. 

The major versus overall ranking debate can be visibly illustrated by looking at the status of new school divisions a decade or two after their creations. Take the brand new business school that was established by a certain Ivy League school in the 1970s. It took maybe two decades for the school to be considered a top 20 business school and about four decades for it to be firmly included into the top 10-15 business school lists. Many university and college ranking systems are based on reputation, selectivity metrics, employment prospects for graduates and research output with some also emphasizing on affordability, gradation rates and alumni giving rates. The schools with the most resources and established reputations will likely excel in most if not all of the criteria listed above. I see education as a long-term investment. The reality is, new graduates, regardless of which schools they attended, will need a few years to be firmly established in their professions if they do not change professions at all. The truth is many students at institutions of higher learning do sometimes change major and the major they studied may not even be the corresponding field of work that they engage in when they graduate or work in their entire career. That is another reason why overall reputation of a college or university usually take precedence over the rankings for a specific major in the eyes of many employers with some exceptions. In all honesty, most employers probably don’t look at the ranking of each school of the prospective job applicant as much as they rely on their previously conceived perception of the reputation of a said college and/or university.  In this day and age, interdisciplinary cooperation and applied use of technologies increasingly require employees to deepen their breadth of knowledge and experience with almost everything. There are probably many English majors from the Upper Ivies working in Wall Street. From a long-term perspective, the overall reputation of a university will usually mean more anyway. The employers that don’t hire Ivy Leaguers aren’t alway doing this because they don’t want to but some may be not doing this for more practical reasons like money and turnover rates. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

How to select the most suitable universities and colleges to attend.

Prestigious universities are actually no more expensive or frequently cheaper than the not so prestigious private schools because of scholarships and grants often given to the most gifted prospective students. Many prestigious universities are heading toward the tuition-free model. Ivy League admissions standards are quite high hence the vast majority of applicants will not get admitted, yes, even the ones from wealthy families may not get in. Legacies and other types of perceived loopholes in admissions standards at top colleges and universities are closing gradually. In the long-term, to get in and graduate from established colleges and universities regardless of rankings will take financial resources, time and effort. A well-functioning society needs the common person as much as it need the elites in various fields to innovate and create employment opportunities for society. A top-rated education is still by far one of the best ROIs in life especially in terms of upward mobility for the members of the non-wealthy class. Obviously, grade inflation may be a perceived issue at some top universities, however, regardless of that, working toward a high GPA along with student leadership experience and internships is still one of the best indicators for employers to find the most suitable employees for their organization. 

Should I attend an Ivy or an Ivy Plus school? That sounds like a title for a future posting. I will say that with the embracement of interdisciplinary and STEMS fields, a top school is a top school regardless of its “league.” Which college and universities ranking system/list should I use when selecting prospective schools and how do I use these lists to find the best schools for me? Again, a topic of discussion perhaps in a future post but here are some points regarding this topic. The best resources including attending the top universities will still be the best money could buy when one could afford it. The sticker total cost of attendance price increases for these elite schools, already expensive for many people, will likely greatly exceed the pace of inflation unless the prospective student is one of the few gifted students who will be the best among the best of the 5% or so self-preselected applicants who even dared to apply in the first place and who even got in. Probably only an extremely small percentage of the 5% if students who were actually admitted into these schools will get offered a significant scholarship or grant. That 5% already basically include inventors, scientists, geniuses and even smarter geniuses. I foresee resource constraints related consolidation will occur in the tertiary education system due to slowing in population growth in much of the world, a changing society especially demographic changes, technological and geopolitics shifts and with significant decreases in international students in the West. 

Significant private school consolidations will likely occur especially in the liberal arts segment. This will mean more applications to top schools, net reduction in the number of majors offered by colleges and fiercer competition for the top schools. The consolidation and reduction of majors may mean choosing colleges and/or colleges more carefully including what to major in while in school make a world of difference. Consolidation and reductions in the industry are happening with real root causes. There are four major colleges and universities ranking list that people frequently use. One in the US, one in East Asia and two in the UK. I may discuss this more in-depth in the future but I will say these rankings have their own unique attributes and are respected by different crowds though there may be some overlaps. Without going into the specifics, a balanced, weighted-average  approach is probably the most logical when one relies on the rankings as a significant element during the college selection process. Sometimes people will say this college is strong in this region or within a certain field, I think it is best to choose a school that has global appeal now if you are able to and in the future if you are not able to but is a believer in the process and can afford the wait. The tangible and intangible infrastructure requirements for schools with a global reputation is vastly different than that of the regional ones. Having a license to sell something but electing not to is vastly different than not having the license and not being able to have the option to perform a certain action even when doing so maybe advantage or even required for survival purposes. Getting a license and sometimes multiple licenses for something require a lot of resources and prep work sometimes decades in the making. That is all I will say on that. 

Remember, at the end of the day, no matter how much money you make, it’s all about cash flow. Money beget more money therefore more money will cost money. In investing as in life, everything is finite. Frequently it’s only a small percentage of something that achieve the majority of everything. Hence when it is important to understand that when you find something within your price range, buy everything at one go when you can afford it. Minimizing transaction cost and securing things in whole are important concepts in business. My price range is on average $100 or less for any given item and spend what I budgeted for that day. It’s almost never the price of something at the time of purchase that makes something a good value, it is rather the intrinsic value that others likely will see in the future that makes something worth investing into.

When an investment meet my criterion, I will  invest everything into it that falls within my guidelines. I don’t assume it will be there tomorrow because good things will not last. Best to Always maintain a healthy cash flow to deal with the unexpected. The good thing about diversifying and buying low dollar items is even they appreciate, they are still relatively liquid because the lower per unit price. To better financial health, try to match cash flow outflow with anticipated cash inflow. Remember, focus on buying assets, not liabilities. Investing in something that will require high maintenance or require efforts to upkeep is in essence may not generate ample ROI returns. Just like in life, don’t buy aimlessly. This is an important lesson because you need to do research before you invest. Investments have cycles, you need to know what you are doing or else you will end up doing things not according to schedule and/or just plainly wrong. People are people, those who you will potentially do transactions will respect counterparties who know what they are doing. It’s a business so be wise which also may entail being magnanimous. People like to deal with those who are willing and able to pay for value.

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

How to get the best deals when investing in sports cards and Pokemon TCG cards.

When people have resources, they will often seem to be more generous with their resources when they believe it is worth it in the end. Not buying aimless does not mean you pass up on good deals on things that you are familiar with that is within your budget or not buy something when the cash flow outlay is so low it is worth taking a chance on when certain conditions are met. Diversification is not the issue, the issue is lack of investing discipline. A big thing to remember is even when we are trying to make money, we also need to do our part to make the pie bigger for everyone so we all have the option to bigger portions and more variety when we want to exercise our options. This means giving away collectibles that we don’t want from bundles that we buy to those who we may know want them. I personally consider that as a win because it helps to grow the hobby and builds good karma. If you collect long enough, you will realize there are frequently people and organizations who are giving cards away by paying it forward. I been on the other end a few times myself.  It’s a win-win situation because what is given away are often things people don’t want anymore and the things I pick up for free from those giveaways are often things I want and believe will hold future value. Basically one person’s trash is another person’s treasure. 

When investing or trying to achieve anything, half of the battle is in the strategic overarching setup including identification, planning and preparation. Before you are shopping for investments, you likely should already know broadly what type of asset(s) you are looking for, their prices and values, what you plan to do with them etc. The other half of the battle is execution of plans from acquisition to exit and post-exit if any. While much of the methodologies for all investments are similar, ample customization may be needed from planning to execution in order to make it all work seamlessly. For example, the market for sports cards and TCGs like Pokemon cards may be vastly different never mind differences between subcategories within these general categories. Scarcity appear to be less of a concern of Pokemon card collectors than sports cards collectors. Pokemon cards are currently printed by a very well managed brand that crosses almost all genres hence the demand potential is certainly there. 

Sports cards are printed by numerous companies covering many different sports. Although they are likely also mass printed, but they also have numbered, memorabilia and autographed cards which are frequently limited in print size. Pokemon also does not have the concept of rookie cards whereas sports cards do. At the end of the day, the best way to minimize acquisition transaction cost is by dwindle the number of anticipated purchases instead increase the unit volume of single trip transactions. For newer investors in this field, I believe it is better to buy lower dollar items offline from reputable retailers to avoid higher probability of potential scams. In my opinion, in the dollar boxes, the best cards one could find in there are typically the rookie cards of potential future stars, rookie cards of superstars from non-major sports, misprints, inserts from non-major TCGs or a numbered card or two that was accidentally placed into the box because the owner misjudged the card not being a numbered card. Don’t go to the same store too frequently but do go once in a while to checkout new things they are selling, if any. Calling in advance while convenient is usually not a wise moved from a deal making standpoint as the surprise/impromptu element is a major transacting tactic. I usually stay away from buying cards from stores that do not put price tags to their cards for reasons I won’t specify here but may present potential issues when wanting to get a good deal. Like anything, don’t overly rely on someone or something but that doesn’t mean buying frequently from the same locale is not advantages at times. Honesty is one of the most important virtual sin doing business, which is contrary to maximizing thought I would argue repeat purchases frequently lower transaction and overall cost within a reasonable diversified range. 

I believe there are many hidden gems in the 2025 baseball rookie cards class. Personally, I have been accumulating Ben Rice and Nick Kurtz rookie cards for months. I been actively looking for these in dollar boxes regardless of condition, which are typically in decent condition given they are newer cards. Surprisingly, I am still able to find large lots of these probably for reasons that I describe below. I anticipate a targeted price of $50 for the average base Ben Rice rookie card and $40 for the average base Nick Kurtz rookie card in approximately five years. It typically requires a player seven years to show signs of GOATesque symptoms proven with upward trajectory in record pacing levels and postseason success. The bottom line is, only GOATesque and plus players will receive perennial public exposure in the long-term after the hype hence their cards are likely the only ones that will see post-inflation adjustment gains after they retire. Both players’ cards will have higher ROI multipliers due to their marketability. 

I believe Ben Rice will be a cultural icon in popular culture as an Ivy leaguer super athlete role model, a career long Mr. Yankees folks hero who will get 400 plus home runs, 2,000 plus hits and a few championships. I think Nick Kurtz will eventually make it to a major market team  where he will be a superstar. The issue here is his fan base will likely mostly be from a team that is not the team name on the jerseys of his rookie cards which might diminish the ROI multiplier a bit. The baseball rookie cards in the 2025 baseball card packs are probably one of the best in the last few decades. We are talking about at least five highly probable future hall of famers in Ben Rice, Nick Kurtz, James Woods, Drake Baldwin and Cade Horton. Daylen Lile and Dalton Rushing also have decent chances of being future hall of famers. I can also identify probably another five players with their rookie baseball cards in 2025 that also have the potential to be hall of famers. This class is top heavy and extensive deep. Some of these players mentioned above are already at record pacing levels. The best part of all this is while all the people are diverting their attention to basketball cards, soccer stickers and modern Pokemon cards, baseball cards are lagging behind its true market value for these cards. Even so, I’m baseball cards, people focus more on the Ohtanis, Judges and other players who are already superstars. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

July 2026 sports and Pokemon Trading Card Game (TCG) cards Buy List.

Prices are so ridiculous low at this point, I could buy two Ben Rice cards for around a dollar. Ben Rice is literally hitting better than Aaron Judge and is likely a top MVP candidate in the American League. In this year of low level offensive production due to stellar pitching and likely exhaustion from the recent few years of historical offensive performances, Ben Rice has a real opportunity to get an MVP award. He is not just hitting home runs and the best player on the Yankees now, he is very efficient per his hitting metrics. The Yankees are currently the winningest team in the American League that means Ben Rice could also win postseason awards and a championship. With Aaron Judge likely out for an extensive amount of time and no one else in the AL that is realistically better than Ben Rice, I think it’s safe to say Ben Rice will likely win the MVP. I know Vladimir Guerrero is getting more votes than Ben Rice with a grand total of four home runs this season, but let’s be honest….I think someone or some organization(s) important enough will reasonably make the all star starting situation right in Ben Rice’s favor. 

Many of the pundits see Ben Rice not as a historical level hitter but more of a Mr. Popular type. Even though I agree he came into the league a little late hence greatly lowering his probability of breaking records, however, I believe in momentum. I think Aaron Judge’s injury history and the older players on the team will mean more time for other hitters to develop. The Yankee appears to be win the next five years kind of team right now. Its farm system is practically depleted now. Even if the Yankees can get free agents, not every year is a blockbuster free agency year. All that to say is in Ben Rice’s prime baseball years, he will get help from a lot of big bats to lead the Yankees to postseason success. Nick Kurtz is young and has a lot of power in his hitting. I think at some point he will be traded or leaves for a big market team. I see Nick Kurtz winning an MVP at least and likely multiple MVPs. 

Regarding Pokemon cards, I said this few times and I will say it again. The best deals right now by far are the vintage 1999 cards especially the base set. This set contains the best value in Pokemon TCG cards history because it is the last set that can be considered as rookie cards of Pokemon. It was literally produced in the first year of the English language version of Pokemon cards. At a buck or less per card, this is literally the best deal one could get when people realize how insane it was to buy modern for more when they could by the OG rookie cards for almost nothing. Making money in the long-term is all about discipline and sustainability. These two players I believe have the highest potential to become GOATesque in the MLB out of all the players with their rookie cards in 2025 due to a combination of abilities, viability and marketability. In most valuable collections, it’s usually only a low double digit percentage of cards that makes up the vast amount of value of the collection. I am also buying up the undervalued baseball rookie cards namely Jordan Walker, Michael Harris II and Julio Rodriguez. In the next few posts I will discuss my buying strategies and analysis in details for many of the cards mentioned above. 

I am going to provide a piece of strategy that very few people in the history of this world likely will ever be able to verify. When you have multiple degrees from top ten global universities, worked for nearly 100 Fortune 500 companies in one capacity or another, have numerous professional certificates and licenses, have leadership experience, an internationalist who have seen it all, you rarely have to prove to anyone at all your abilities. For the regular person, it’s all about managing expectation of everyone around you. What is important here is, keep in mind, you will likely only work for around 40 years in your life. This sounds a lot but it really isn’t. Make sure you always have FU money to say no to things that will not be advantageous to you. I think the easiest way to accumulate savings for a regular employee is not through savings in the traditional sense, it’s actually through 401K. Many employers will match a percentage of employee contributions and there are quite a bit of tax benefit with contributions for the contributing employee. In today’s day and age, jumping around a bit is one of the best ways to get career advancement if you are good at controlling the length of employment just long enough to not be considered a job hopper and not long enough to be considered an overstayer. In this day and age, an employment length of six months or a year is not that frowned upon anymore if you have a good reason for it and you don’t do this for every single job. Most people escape bad managers or dead-end jobs but obviously that is not what many future potential employers want to hear. 

My best advice regarding work life balance is people and organization will likely take advantage of you by giving you more work if they can. If you can, get advanced degrees and professional licenses to boost your marketability on the job market hence making people and organizations think twice before pushing more work to you risking you quitting. If you can’t do any of that, learn as much as you can on the job when you can and try to get some easy to get, inexpensive to obtain and relevant certificates for your profession. Don’t try to achieve too much in your job, it will be significantly harder to do so than trying to piece meal achievements and learn the skill sets at multiple workplaces. The younger generation are switching jobs every 2+ years or so nowadays. I recommend two years max at a job that offers you no significant growth opportunities. Remember the biggest pay bump usually happens when you get hired by a new employer even for the same title you had before at your current company and not from the regular pay annual increases from your current employer. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Here is what I posted previously regarding this and similar topic(s).

I don’t think neither entrepreneurship nor working for others are the best options. Entrepreneurship typically takes a lot of skills, experience, effort and resources to succeed. From an average expected value standpoint, entrepreneurship is a losing game for the vast majority of people. Depending on your definition of a successful entrepreneur, I would argue there probably are more moderate to major jackpot prize winners in various contests in the US now than there are actually successful entrepreneurs. That’s probably not a coincidence. For every successful entrepreneur, there are probably thousands of less successful ones. Besides controllable factors, there are tons of uncontrollable market risks such as bad timing that can devastate a new entrepreneurial venture. The risk of failure are extremely high for a new venture. Working for others appears to provide a stable income, however, it usually comes with less flexibility, lower ceiling in potentials and doing something potentially one find meaningless. For these reasons, I like the Mezzanine approach. The difficult part about implementing the mezzanine career approach is the work-life balance part. How can one still remain desirable as an employee on the job market when one is looking for a job and keeping a desirable job after being hired for a position while at the same time also be successful in entrepreneurship activities. This may take a lot of navigating in many different aspects. 

Most people don’t get rich from working for other people. Some people will point to the highest paying major professionals like doctors And to say medical doctors are rich. While doctors on average make a great salary on average at around $400K a year, most doctors also have to go through 10+ years of post high school education and become doctors if they qualify after meeting various rigorous criteria in their 30s. Most doctors also have 300K or more in debt before they even become doctors. If one were able to work the approximate ten years during or after college and save that money in a 401(k), just based on market appreciation, an annual total 20K contribution (including contribution from the employer) at average calculated market growth of around 10% growth in 15 years will be $600K+. It also comes with tax advantages which I will not discuss at this time. An HSA for those who qualify in addition to a 401(k) for those who qualify could potentially be even more tax advantaged. Anyway, by the time the doctor pays off his or her debt, the non-doctor already has likely $600K+ in retirement account savings than the doctor has. Because there is a limit in tax advantages 401(k) annual contributions by a person while working for an employer, the doctor can not simply catch-up in 401(k) savings the regular way (unless we are talking about catch-ups exceptions at certain age) by throwing money at it. What this means is even if the non-doctor does not contribute anymore to a 401(k) plan after they saved $600K+ in 401(k) their money will grow to at least a few millions after 30 years more than enough to live comfortably in retirement. Ultimately, neither of these above methods will help one get truly do whatever you want wealthy.

Doctors will probably cave in social pressures to live a relatively expensive doctor lifestyle which due to political correct taboos I will not detail what this may entail here. It will likely not be a cheap lifestyle and likely not all being enjoyed by the doctor but rather by those who I also will not talk about due to political correct taboo reasons. Most doctors are not business professionals and while they are busy treating passions like professional athletes trying to be the best in their sport, there may possibility be people who may or may not be taking advantage of them financially for which I will not state due to social contract reasons. Point being, being wealthy may allow one to have the discretion of stop working and doing whatever they like, when whenever they like and however they like within a legally compliant manner within certain acceptable boundaries. That is what have FU money is all about. Being wealthy also means having the influence to exact changes to one’s advantage frequently utilizing other people’s and/or entities’ resources legally. The biggest issue with employees is they are essentially paycheck to paycheck without reasonable  certainty of their employment status from one day to another either due to controllable and/or uncontrollable factors. They are essentially exchanging one valuable resource which is their precious time for another valuable resource which is money. 

Employees only make what they earn when they use their own valuable time to own them, therefore they can not employ capital inefficiently in this endeavor without, you guessed it, expending more time. The whole time value of money concept is really meant for money to work for you passively without you intently expending your time. Money when managed right is the best, drama-free, salary-free and low-maintenance employee ever. I am not advocating for entrepreneurship alone. The reality is having a stable paycheck is great. Many successful entrepreneurs worked for other people before they became successful themselves. It is also important to have startup capital and experience which could be obtained by working for successful companies for a number of years. The social element is also important too as having coworkers to communicate everyday helps  keep one within mainstream society and (mostly) helps maintain a stable mental help and help stay away from depression due to loneliness. Many ideas are created by seeing things in action and realizing a problem and a solution through social interactions. Great ideas usually don’t get created in a vacuum.

Let’s put it this way, focus on the overarching direction not just the nuances. When the tide rises, it usually lifts all boats unless the boat itself is nonfunctional. This frequently happens in the stock market. When the market does well, many stocks do well, when it doesn’t, many stocks dips. The exceptions being companies that are viewed as having overwhelming unsystematic risks. What I am trying to say is, focus more on the substance behind the underlying asset and not just the form itself unless the form is abnormally broke like being a forgery or a fan-made set. Even the unlicensed products if from major brands, I think its not that bad if one is willing to accept the potential lower ROI multiplier. 

I can’t say this enough. GOATs may change from time to time. Investing in a player because the player is the current GOAT is a losing proposition. The smarter move is to form a pipeline of inexpensive investments that may have high potentials on a periodic and continuously basis. Liquidity is king. You won’t have much bargaining powers if you are not liquid. You won’t be able to wait things out because they need cash flow. Being illiquid is an easy way to be taken advantage is. Even if someone is willing to buy something illiquid from you (smart investors will likely do research on your current financial and overall situation), you may have to sell your assets at heavy discounts. Part of having FU money is the ability to say no when saying no is advantageous to you. Not having the ability to do so may be detrimental to your financial well-being. This is precisely why I don’t recommend regular people to spend a large sum of money on illiquid assets that will hurt their cash flow significantly. What most people may not realize is momentum begets more momentum. When you are up and everyone sees it, people are likely to help you financially. When you are down, regular people will be hesitant to do so because their financial resources are limited and they can’t afford to gamble on you paying them back. The financial investors and institutions are likely even more stringent on the risk evaluation side. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Which card sets should you buy?

Most regular people also do not know how to reduce risk through hedging or arbitraging. With alternative assets, it rarely is how much you spend, but rather, what is actually trending. There are so many high-end collector items that people paid for either never beat inflation nor opportunity costs or even lost nominal value. The other thing many people fail to grasp is there is no consensus definition of how much money one must have to be considered rich beyond certain common sense wealth ranges. For example, once reaching millionaire status, many regular people consider that as being either rich or well-to-do. Beyond that, most people couldn’t really objective say how much a difference a 10 millionairer is from a 50 millionairer. Why am I talking about this? Because investing frequently accompany risks. Some people go for the “home run” that has a high probability of failure because succeeding means creating “generational wealth.” The truth is generational wealth actually takes time to build some times in multiple generations. Going for the same home run that many others are going for frequently means a much higher failure rate. This is precisely why I almost never invest in anything over a 100 dollars for any single piece of item in the alternative assets market. 

You could have easily 100X’d your money if you bought a Mario Pikachu box for $100 dollars a few years back. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out Pikachu and Mario are two of the hottest gaming/toy/entertainment related intellectual property/franchises in the world but obvious many people are far from geniuses hence many of these were likely hoarded by a select group of people and/or organizations. Look at Pikachu base set cards or any of the base set cards really. None of these cards are 1st Edition Base Set graded 10 Charizards but if you have many of these cards, chances are, they will likely appreciate within a given range over time with potential for even faster growth. Why? Because most of these were not retained in good conditions at high clips and the numbers are limited in the modern sense. No one will legally be able to make these cards ever again, even if they try, it will be extremely difficult to do so at scale. Mostly because WOTC likely can no longer have the license to make those WOTC Pokemon cards and neither The Pokemon Company nor Nintendo can likely make WOTC Pokemon cards. Put it this way, a 100 dollars worth of a 1st Edition Base Set Charizard might be hard to obtain for someone in 1999, but five shoe box full of common and uncommon non-holo cards from that set might have costed only 100 dollars in 1999. 

In all honesty, that 100 dollar deal composing of 10,000 cards in decent condition might be worth more than even a certain graded 10 1st Edition Base Set Charizard card. Consider there are less than 200 copies of graded 10 Charizards from that set graded by certain popular grading company, I think the 100 dollars investment as mentioned above for 10,000 of cards from that set in 1999 was in essence a near low-risk investment in today’s terms. Point being, you don’t need to hit a home run to actually hit a home run. Some home runs are inside the park. The home runs are just runs, the difference is just the multiplier, records and the reaction from people. To a team that just need runs, home run is just an equation that converts to run(s). At the end of the day, 10 million or 50 million dollars does not change the fact that the person is considered to being rich by many regular people. Somethings follow economic patterns. When desktop computers first came out for mass use, they were quite large and quite expensive. Computers today are not only technologically advanced but exponentially cheaper overall from its first mass commercial release. Based on this, some people may say the smarter move is to invest all the money to buy a computer into mainstream US stock market index funds. Obviously from a historical standpoint that might have been a great investment. However, if one buys the computer early on but use it to create an early internet startup or an e-commerce website, the story may be a bit different and so will potentially return rates from the purchase. The difference in return rate is in how capital is being deployed rather than a set in stone economic formula.

I think the three megatrends that will change life forever for the coming decades will be the following.

1. Humanoid robots, AI and automation
2. Space Exploration
3. Geopolitics

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Top three megatrends for the next decade.

The humanoid robots, AI and automation trend will likely continue to progress rapidly in the coming years. It is however not as scary as it seems from a job security standpoint for most people in the workforce now at least for workers in the US. The US is a consumer oriented economy with consumer spending being one of its largest drivers of economic growth. If a large swath of workers lose their jobs, there would be no one to sell the products to. The rest of the world also heavily depend on the US for consumption due to its lucrative marketplace. Privacy, safety and other elements that affect the human experience is also important in America hence any technological advanced implemented at scale will likely have to clear those hurdles as well. Automation has been happening for years. What basically ended happening there was productivity per worker went up, prices per unit went down, worker wage went up, average per capita consumption went up, invention went up because people have more time to think and experiment and Americans are able to consume more than ever. I foresee humanoid robots, with the exception of ethics and safety concerns, will likely help fulfill the needs of people. AI is already helping people increase productivity, however, it is still years away from being sophisticated enough to AIoT (artificial intelligence if things) to control everything. 

Space exploration was likely the dream of everyone when they were little. Space doesn’t have to mean outer space, it could just mean discovering new places. The biggest mysteries for the human race are probably where are we really from, can we live forever, how we got here, are there other hospitable planets like Earth for humans and are there others like other in the universe. Many of these questions will probably take generations to answer, however, the age of space exploration will likely last for centuries. The biggest takeaway from that is we have to think about things from a galactical standpoint not just earthly. For example, are precious metals still worth hoarding when there are tons of that in other space locations or can we live longer on other planets. On the contrary, if more cultures are found, cultural relics like collectible cards may be worth a lot more due to curiosity and overall a bigger market for such items. Perspectives on life will likely also change which will cause consumption patterns to change due to influence of new cultures and state of being. 

Regarding geopolitics, I think the US will ultimately prevail. This will be a prolonged battle for supremacy but ultimately the US has too many things going for it for it not to win. To consume and be productive, people need to be in a relatively satisfied emotional stage and have the time to be emotionally satisfied. Anyone who tasted free range chicken knows it generally taste better relative to the ones cooped up due to its environment and feed. People need meaning behind their lives. Living in a state of constant exhaustion, censorship and environmental pollution do not help. There is a difference between cost, price and value. Just because something is less to produce and priced in expensively, does not mean it has the same valuation as something else that appears to be similar. This is why I snicker every time experts talk about purchase power parity (PPP). What do you think the cooked food that was sold for 2 dollars on a regular basis is made from when the local air is polluted, much of the water are contaminated, wages have increased tremendously in the last twenty years and meat alone per market price in that jurisdiction cost more than what is being charged. I am pretty sure the said food is probably not made out of organic ingredients….What do you suppose the hidden cost in long-term consumption of such “food” will be? Who you think will actually consume all the overcapacity if the local workers are not paid a wage commiserate to living standards? Deflation is literally a man-made curse masked as progress. Winning long wars typically requires the backing of a strong economy and demographics. The US has this while its main adversar(ies) do/does not. 

I don’t think anyone who is alive now need to worry about it. This process will take time. The US is the center of the world and the home of aspirations. In this world, anyone who is worth their salts have at least once thought about being associated with America in some capacity in their life-time. The best of virtually any thing meaningful, has a large market value and with scale right now are in America. Unlike some places where deflation is rampant, the US usually can take care of inflation easily. US GDP won’t have trouble growing because it takes in the best from all worlds and the world helps it to grow. Yes, it may have issues that it may need to act upon now, the general trend appears to be that it is actively working in resolving those issues. Work life on average is only about 40 years, all these developments are still in its early commercial stages. It will take at least two decades for these developments to impact the regular person on a daily basis. 

As I have mentioned before, the Knicks has over 50% probability to win in five games. I have been able to accurate predicted numerous championships correctly because I look beyond the traditional factors that analysts frequently use to predicted wins and losses. In my prediction model, I lean on a conjoint analysis model where scenarios are run on various levels based on meta data with granular inputs like how many times a player blinks while looking at someone else while someone else eat their food not talking to teammate X when the owner is talking to no one but teammate B while the team mascot turns around 95 degrees toward the Southwest. Yes, there is a reason why I am the permanent contrarian, even then I am not the traditional so called permanent contrarian because I don’t argue for the sake of being different, I voice my opinions because my top ten-er profile, American aligned attitude, street OGability, a world creator mindset and other traits that allow me to affect outcomes when outcomes by limitations of sciences thus far will always mean there will be uncertainty. I simply taken the uncertainty out of the lack of science portion and create a model that substitute natural progression with real world predications. 

The thing is, many analysts look at the data sets that are already somewhere, compiles and aggregate that into an explanable story packaged as a prediction. What I do is simply take that data set and add all the various data sets that never existed and created a story from my own imaginations. Because I am one of the GOATs in certain circle(s), I have the confidence to make such predictions based on my global and historical experiences going against, frequently with prior intentions, the worst and the best in human nature. I am at a point where I am able to explain what luck is through dissecting its various components and imagining its evolutional journey from its synergetic bonding process. All this to say is, I combine the science and the arts into what I do in a dichotomy of languages that the top %ers, street sensibles and everyone in between can understand. I am frequently right because I don’t depend on being right to make a living. I’m a probability kind of a person. However, I am often right because I seen too much nuances to not understand the unknown number of variation to truth. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

New York Villanova Nova Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals in 5 games against the San Antonio Spurs.

In terms of the Knicks, I think they will probably win a few more championships in the next few, the most meaningful ones would be a dynasty which unfortunately will likely be difficult to achieve because the Eastern conference will be quite good for the next decade unfortunately. The West is more too heavily but the East has more high ceiling teams overall and the top four teams are excellent. Shorter heighted guards like Brunson statistically depend on speed and agility. Even though Brunson has a nice post up game as well, the duration of his prime athletic years will likely be very similar to other similar attributed athletes. I think the Knicks will be willing to spend money for the next few years to maintain core of the roster even if they have to pay luxury tax. The real issue is not so much about money, it’s the fact that the Nova Knicks are basically like the Ivan Brothers from way back. They are mythical and likely unreplicable. For starters, the Jay Wright era has been over for four years now, there are zero players remaining from that era to draft straight out of Villanova. The NCAA has changed permanently due to NIL which means there likely won’t be that much time for that kind of bond to exist anymore at the elite levels. Villanova itself is no longer an underdog, they are now playing with the majors at all aspects. All this means that the perfect storm that created the Nova Knicks likely won’t exist for a long time. The Knicks at this point also won’t have much top draft picks left to draft the best players in the next few years which probably doesn’t really matter that much anyway given their picks based on current results likely will end up being late round 1st round picks any way. However, it also means the Knicks will have the incentives to keep the current core roster for a few more years. 

I’m not worried about the Knicks financially for one bit even if they have to spend to get to whatever apron it gets to. A good Knicks team will most likely make a lot of money and increase team valuation significantly. I see the Knicks team valuation 10Xing within a few decades given the likely expansion of the NBA internationally especially with development of travel technology that may also be very safe that will decrease travel times exponentially. I foresee a Mexico City franchise and possibly a franchise or two in Western Europe in the next two decades. I also believe we are in the renaissance of new sports and new concepts in general where basketball in general will likely be a great beneficiary of that with its rapid global growth. I will say it once more, the biggest beneficiary of all of this will actually not even be the Knicks, it is Villanova University. Villanova is expanding rapidly in academics, endowment and campuses. This university has so much going for it, I think they may break into top 20 US and top 100 globally in rankings within the next three decades. The analogy to this is simple, most people are awed by how much a first edition Charizard graded 10 by a certain popular cards grading company go for. Like people discussing how doing business can make one rich, what most people are unable to understand the survivor bias behind all of this. Very few 1st Edition Base Set Charizards actually get graded 10s from the said company, even so, people often differentiate between the ones graded earlier versus the ones graded later due to purposed differences in grading strictness over the years. 

What people also may forget is even though the 1st Edition Base Set Charizard cards were not all that expensive at around 100 dollars on the secondary market in 1999, acquiring large lots of these raw cards from willing sellers likely were not that easy given many people probably hanged on to that card because they thought correctly it might be more valuable in the future. One thing to keep in mind is the market has the incentive to ensure not too many copies of these in pristine conditions exist because of simple economic supply, demand and rarity reasons that significantly affect the value of the most valuable cards. If there were much more of these cards, unless demands can soak up the excess supplies at higher market prices, the prices of these cards will likely decrease. 1st Edition Base Set Pikachu cards when they first came out in 1999 were relatively common to find, obviously depends on whether its a red cheek or yellow cheek Pikachu. Remember, the odds of find a 1st Edition Base Set Charizard was one in 48 packs. The 1st Edition Base Set Pikachu was a common card, it literally was very easy to find within the packs. Without going into all the tangible and intangible calculations again, even though there likely were a lot more 1st Edition Base Set Pikachu printed versus the Charizard, the average person will have likely had a much better net transactional, inflation and time value of money adjusted ROI buying numerous number of Pikachu cards with the same amount of money it would have costed the person in buying the Charizard as a single on the secondary market from that same set in 1999.

I had acquired some non-English and non-Japanese Pokemon cards throughout the years. Of course, as I am one of the majors in this space, my notion of “some” just might be the size of what someone might describe as a “large collection.” The thing regarding collectibles and investments in general are they are worth what people are willing to pay for it. Much of that have to do with whether the potential demographics in that marketplace have the means to continuously to buy these items and drive up sustainable demand that may likely cause the asset(s) to grow in the long-term. The English and Japanese editions suck up most of the market demand because they are some of the richest. America is still and will likely continue to be for the next 50 years the richest and most powerful country in the world. Japan as a primary ally will greatly benefit from that. I understand there are unique artwork in some other Pokemon language editions, however, I view that as artificially helping those editions keep afloat. The reality is English is the lingua franca of the world anyone who does not speak it is frequently seen as unintelligent by those who do and they likely won’t say that out loud. Economics talks and those who do not speak English on average will not be as economically advantaged on the global stage. Japanese Pokemon cards are often considered the original hence it will likely always have significant overall value to other non-English Pokemon cards. People can hype the other social-economic-political entities up all they want. What is important is most of the wealthy and elite subsets from those entities are mostly all here and/or at their families and assets are. Why would any of them do that if their own social-economic-political entities were so great.  

It actually might be better if these champions of other social-economic-political entities from within this great country just move over there and enjoy their lives there. What is stopping them from doing so? Certainly not preferential treatment for self-deportation nor exit bans. In fact, I think many in this country would be gladly and generously help them move in a humane and dignified manner. In the international game, tic for tac is mostly for the weak because they for the most part are just grievance takers. They will vent a bit with orchestrated unified placards, narratives and lots of barks for their own people to see then they will quietly backdown like nothing happened. The top 10 Pokemon I choose are all from the original Pokemon series. I think the OG Pokemon will perform very well in the long-term. Art frequently imitate life. Regardless of Pokemon cards, other collectibles or just life in general, concepts that a lot of people can relate to will usually do well in the long-term. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Here is what I posted previously regarding this and similar topic(s).

“Here is my top ten list.

1. Pikachu – The irreplaceable mascot of Pokemon.
2. Charizard – The preeminent dragon/lizard within the franchise. 
3. Bulbasaur – Starter Pokemon will likely always be popular.
4. Charmander – Starter Pokemon will likely always be popular.
5. Squirtle  – Starter Pokemon will likely always be popular.
6. Psyduck – A cultural icon. 
7. Snorlax – A state of mind. 
8. Eevee – Evolve into so many popular Pokemon.
9. Slowpoke – Literally a meme.
10. Ditto – Being whoever you want to be, kind of inspirational.

Let’s make a few things clear. Yes, Japanese Pokemon cards likely came out a few years before the English versions, however, the English versions were likely the most important releases for the franchise. The 1st Edition Base Set, Shadowless and the Base Set Unlimited were all released in 1999 with various supposed print run duration. I consider all three the rookie cards of the original Pokemon. I also believe the print run size for all three releases in modern print run terms relatively small. I also believe the current premium on the 1st Edition and Shadowless Base Set prints are egregiously overvalued compared to the Base Set. I equate 1st Edition Base Set to the Bowman 1st set in baseball cards were probably only. select group of people bought and collected these hence worth they are worth a bit more in certain circles. The Shadowless is like a Bowman 1st inexpensive insert subset that’s likely not going to be worth as much as a regular Bowman 1st card of the same player in the long-run. The Base Set is like the regular rookie cards that many people purchased. 

English version of Pokemon cards were a kind of a novelty at the time of first release, the end-collectors of these cards were not adults and the cards themselves were meant to be played. No one probably thought the cards would be worth this much like it is now. The retention rate of these cards were likely extremely low for the Base Set Unlimited. The conditions on the retained cards likely were mostly in the lightly to moderately played conditions. I believe the secondary market was likely much stronger for 1st Edition Base Set and hence they were retained at a much higher rate and likely maintained in much better conditions on average. Despite the likely smaller print run, a very significant graded population for 1st Edition Base Set and Shadowless cards exist. Even if we presume the seemingly plausible rumor that 1st Edition Base Set was only printed for three days, I believe the 1st Edition Base Set to Base Set Unlimited print size ratio may be somewhere around 1:20. The difference is that I believe the 1st Edition Base Set were recognized for its potentials  at the time of release by those who bought them during release or shortly after release on the secondary markets therefore those sets were on average in much better conditions.

There likely was a much higher likelihood of these boxes being kept sealed versus Base Set Unlimited. While I still believe 1st Edition Base Set is much more rare, I believe the retention rate was significantly lower for the Base Set Unlimited Set and cards. Hence I believe the around 15X valuation of a 1st Edition versus an Unlimited Base Set may not be justified from a rarity standpoint. My guesstimate would be a 7.5X valuation is probably more reasonable at this time. I also believe in another 40 years or so, the valuation ratio will come down to around 2.5 to 4X. I believe people are opening the Base Set Unlimited boxes and packs at a much higher clip as it is more affordable to do so versus the 1st Edition Base Set. As many of the collectors today are not professional investors, many fail to grasp the premium some people are willing to pay to own an early set of something. Because all three of the above-mentioned sets came out in the same year with only likely superficial, non-core artwork or substantive playing differences and likely were designed by the same people using the same machines and sold in the same channels, I think in the long-run people will see this a multiplier issue rather than a classification issue. 

The multiplier issue will likely be mostly resolved by estimating supply and demand. What most people don’t realize yet is the original sets will continue to benefit from all future releases as they were the one and only originals. One of the frequently asked question in almost anything is the history of something. Which one do you think will get talked about more, the first few releases or the 72 release out of 100 plus releases? I believe Pokemon will likely have over 1,000 English set releases in the future and probably tens of thousands of sets releases when you count all languages. I believe there are over 2 billion Pokemon fans around the world approximately 30% of the world population. Pokémon’s ever increasing cross promotions allow it to add new fan bases and along with its various mediums including Pokemon Go, Anime, Cards, Toys, Tournaments and more, I believe the pipeline will continue to grow.

I think when cards related alternative assets become more mainstream with a large amount of mainstream investors investing into the field, more rational and less sentiments will be used in valuation. Aesthetic appeal of a card may be important, but how much more important is it over the fundamental economics? I believe one of the biggest arbitrage opportunities right now in investing in Pokemon cards is the concept of rookie cards. Many people in this space do not necessarily understand why that is important from a time value of money standpoint. Many collectors in this space are more on the nostalgic, artwork eye appeal and playability. In reality, a large population of the high-end investors or collectors do not play in any Pokemon tournaments nor even care about how it is being played. The divide between pure collectors/investors, the Anime watchers and the game players be it in electronic or physical card game format are huge. The cards are based on the games not the anime hence you almost never see Ash in any of the vintage cards except perhaps promos. I don’t mean to be condescending or anything. You may feel the same way that I feel if you were in almost everything in the very beginning. In terms of the cards hobby, I believe one’s perspective may change if one witness parents’ basement dwellers turn into nouveaux riches overnight with certain attributes akin to most lottery winners.”

I think the Knicks has a high likelihood of ending the series at Game 5 and securing their first championship in 50+ years. I think the Spurs caught a break when the NBA announced the decision to not suspend Wemby, however, if you watched enough sports you probably heard the phrase “ball don’t lie” and may have seen that happen in a sporting event either metaphorically, literally or both. Knicks having one of the greatest, arguably the greatest comeback in NBA playoff history is just amazing and probably demoralizing for the Spurs now. Lastly, inexperience may mean not knowing how to deal with huge amount of pressure in key moments. Like I said before, I think the Knicks has less than 50% probability to sweep the Spurs but has over 50% probability to win the series. To win a single game when two peer level teams are playing, the littlest differences matters. In my opinion, what separate a championship team who win a series and a runner-up are usually stamina, mental toughness at key moments and clutch events. In a series of many games, strengths and weaknesses are usually exposed and exploited. If you compare Knicks versus Spurs’ starting and overall roster, besides Wemby, you probably won’t find another real star on the Spurs. All five starters for the Knicks are all-star level players when the team they play on are championship level. I’m doubtful De’Aaron Fox will make the hall of fame. Some of Wemby’s on the court behavior can be generously described as questionable. 

The Villanova guys definitely were coached right, no pun intended. Villanova has the first North American pope and likely have an “associated” NBA championship team in the richest city in the world. And Villanova and Notre Dame may play in front of the Pope later this year with some of the Villanova Knicks champions also attending? Then the Pope may take an American Tour and make stop in the Catholic heavy Northeast and on Villanova campus? Villanova will have three campuses all nearby each other before or by 2028 with likely more students and movement to R1 research school category? Villanova’s basketball team got into the big dance in year one of a coaching change and is on the verge of possibly getting a superstar college basketball player? Forget about buying any of the cards based on this series, I think being degreed with Villanova might be the better play here for the contrarian who doesn’t fit their current campus main demographic group but might be the diversify the school is looking for in a student. I think this school has a good chance of moving into the top 30 range on a certain US-based mainstream ranking list within seven to ten years. I estimate this school probably gotten a few billion US dollars in additional publicity since the 2016s due to its many successes in the last ten years. 

Look I think Wemby will most likely be a hall of famer. However, given Wemby’s massive presence and he is playing in a small market team, though probably the best one in the category, I doubt the Spurs will be able to get another true superstar to play with him that will help him win a championship. Most likely, if he stays with the Spurs after his rookie contract is up and if he stays for the long-term, the Spurs will likely need to accumulate some top picks through trade or rebuild, which likely the same difference because trading away any a star or two is essentially a rebuild for the Spurs at this point. I highly doubt the Spurs will actually win a championship with its current roster. In this era of small ball and shooting big man who can stretch the floor, Wemby is pretty disadvantage given he is not an elite shooting big man and he is almost everything to the Spurs on both ends of the floor.

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Here is what I wrote about this topic and related topics previously.

“Physiologically speaking, people are much more motivated and their best will come out when accomplishments are rewarded with positive reinforcements. In this case, a Knicks championship now is almost universally good for the world except for San Antonio Spurs linked entities. This version of the Spurs led by Wemby also have not had much playoff experience nor much playoff success. This is actually the Spurs’ first playoffs appearance in about seven years and the young core have no championship experience. The player one on the team who does is Harrison Barnes who is mostly a reserve player. Because of all this, the Spurs likely are mostly not expected by its fan base to win and likely have no pressure from anyone to win the championship. For the Spurs now, getting to the playoffs was already a huge success and making it to the finals was already a big surprise along with lucky breaks. In some sense, the Spurs may metaphorically have the imposter syndrome. Probably no one will be mad at the Spurs if they were swepted in the NBA Finals including their own fans, players, coaching/front office staff and ownership. I highly doubt a small market team like the Spurs for whatever its past glories were will be able to field another historical team in the next ten years which will essentially eat away all of Wemby’s prime NBA playing years. With the rise of prime market teams like the Knicks, the small market teams will become less attractive for premier free agents. Drafting top draft picks hoping to turn them into superstars will take a lot of work, time and high level development talents, which for these reasons I believe it will be a low probability event that the Spurs will be a dynasty in the next ten years.

One knock on Wemby’s cards are his best rookie cards, likely the ones that included his autographs, were unlicensed NBA cards which could indirectly affect his cards value going forward. I also think Wemby’s cards are over priced for his predicted historical value as an NBA player. I think there are two realistic ways to play this as someone who is looking to acquire new cards based on this year’s NBA Finals as of now. I think most likely both KAT and the Knicks will ink contracts to at least the 2030 season very soon. If KAT wins a championship this year as a Knicks and he maintain at around the same level of play as he exhibited during this playoff run, he will likely be a 10-time all star, earn more All-NBA honors, get at least 25,000 points, be named to All-NBA Defensive Team or two, contending for an MVP and Defensive Player of the Year and get rid of the “being soft” label for good. KAT being a high draft pick and winning the rookie of the year is simply fulfilling his potentials. Fulfilling full potentials through self-actualization of a society-professed prophecy is usually easier to achieve when it is already accepted by many as somewhat of a truth thereby will likely experience less systematic headwind when attempting to achieve such potentials.”

I think some of the home court advantage was taken away due to a certain person’s attendance of the game otherwise I believe the Knicks would have won this Game. I still believe the Knicks will win this series even though I only assigned a 40% probability in my previous post of the Knick sweeping the series. I believe Knicks will win Game 4 of this series.

Here is what I posted previously about this and similar topic(s).

“I think there is a 40% chance the Knicks will sweep the Spurs in this NBA Finals, a 70% chance it will win in five games, a 90% chance it will win in six games and a 99% chance it will win in seven games. I think the Knicks will most likely win in five games mostly because win streaks are usually hard to break like inertia unless something more powerful breaks it apart. Hence I believe even if the Knicks have their streak broken, they will likely still win the series, that probably is much higher if they can win Game 2. As I mentioned before the start of Game 1 of this NBA Finals, the Spurs were about 90% of themselves during that games and likely will be 95% of themselves in game 2. The Knicks essentially took away the Spurs’ home field advantage. New York and San Antonio are too totally different cities and environments. The Knicks play in arguably the world’s most famous arena with the brightest lights on them every home game. That lack of five percent from the Spurs likely in Game 2 will mean they may likely lose again. The Spurs are on an extremely short rotation heavily relying on Wemby on offense and defense. 

KAT as I mentioned before will strength Wemby out and Mitchell Robinson will dominate the paint when they are both on the floor at the same time during the Finals. Unfortunately for Wemby, he came into the league during a time when there is already a likely GOAT in Lebron James and will likely be compared to Lebron in the future in terms of greatness. Lebron has too much going for him to likely not play a few more years which likely will coincide with Wemby’s prime. My predictions are typically based on a set of dynamic factors considering both the statistical probabilities via using scientific data analytical methods and the real-world, human nature non-vacuum behavioral changes resulting from inputs and outputs that interacts ultimately creating various scenarios. When I predicted the Knicks will likely win Game 1 a day or two before the finals tip-off, I utilize historical and recent results based on various factors such as energy level, momentum/inertia, experience level, historical and recent performance etcetera combing with human factors.

Physiologically speaking, people are much more motivated and their best will come out when accomplishments are rewarded with positive reinforcements. In this case, a Knicks championship now is almost universally good for the world except for San Antonio Spurs linked entities. This version of the Spurs led by Wemby also have not had much playoff experience nor much playoff success. This is actually the Spurs’ first playoffs appearance in about seven years and the young core have no championship experience. 

The player one on the team who does is Harrison Barnes who is mostly a reserve player. Because of all this, the Spurs likely are mostly not expected by its fan base to win and likely have no pressure from anyone to win the championship. For the Spurs now, getting to the playoffs was already a huge success and making it to the finals was already a big surprise along with lucky breaks. In some sense, the Spurs may metaphorically have the imposter syndrome. Probably no one will be mad at the Spurs if they were swepted in the NBA Finals including their own fans, players, coaching/front office staff and ownership. I highly doubt a small market team like the Spurs for whatever its past glories were will be able to field another historical team in the next ten years which will essentially eat away all of Wemby’s prime NBA playing years. With the rise of prime market teams like the Knicks, the small market teams will become less attractive for premier free agents. Drafting top draft picks hoping to turn them into superstars will take a lot of work, time and high level development talents, which for these reasons I believe it will be a low probability event that the Spurs will be a dynasty in the next ten years.

One knock on Wemby’s cards are his best rookie cards, likely the ones that included his autographs, were unlicensed NBA cards which could indirectly affect his cards value going forward. I also think Wemby’s cards are over priced for his predicted historical value as an NBA player. I think there are two realistic ways to play this as someone who is looking to acquire new cards based on this year’s NBA Finals as of now. I think most likely both KAT and the Knicks will ink contracts to at least the 2030 season very soon. If KAT wins a championship this year as a Knicks and he maintain at around the same level of play as he exhibited during this playoff run, he will likely be a 10-time all star, earn more All-NBA honors, get at least 25,000 points, be named to All-NBA Defensive Team or two, contending for an MVP and Defensive Player of the Year and get rid of the “being soft” label for good. KAT being a high draft pick and winning the rookie of the year is simply fulfilling his potentials. Fulfilling full potentials through self-actualization of a society-professed prophecy is usually easier to achieve when it is already accepted by many as somewhat of a truth thereby will likely experience less systematic headwind when attempting to achieve such potentials. 

Putting all those philosophical points aside, what I find most attractive about KAT cards are the fact that most of his high-end rookie cards are almost unbelievably inexpensive compared to his very realistic potentials thus far. We are talking a low numbered rookie auto patch (RPA) for around 100 USD. I doubt this price level will maintain for much lower though. As someone who invested in a huge number of Jalen Brunson cards in 2018, I have to say I would not add any significant number of additional Brunson intently right now due to skyrocketing prices. As much as I think Jalen Brunson is a great player, at the end of the day, their are certain unwritten stereotypes about second round players that are still very much ingrained in the thinking of many collectors/investors that will ultimately affect how high Brunson cards value will go. Brunson and KAT will both be 30 years old at some point in 2026 yet KAT played in three more NBA seasons than Brunson did. Plus KAT is a stretch center in an almost bruisingless center area hence physically speaking, he will probably be able to play more years in the NBA. Brunson is a point guard who plays a physical post-up game, he will likely be less effective physically speaking in comparison with KAT in the timeframe as time progresses when they are both in the league. Brunson unfortunately will most likely be a hall of famer version of Isaiah Thomas formerly of the Boston Celtics in terms of career longevity trajectory. Realistically, I think KAT will be in the league for 20 years, ultimately elected to the NBA 100th anniversary team, win two to three NBA championships and likely be known as one of the top three centers in his era.”

Here is my top ten list.

1. Pikachu – The irreplaceable mascot of Pokemon.
2. Charizard – The preeminent dragon/lizard within the franchise. 
3. Bulbasaur – Starter Pokemon will likely always be popular.
4. Charmander – Starter Pokemon will likely always be popular.
5. Squirtle  – Starter Pokemon will likely always be popular.
6. Psyduck – A cultural icon. 
7. Snorlax – A state of mind. 
8. Eevee – Evolve into so many popular Pokemon.
9. Slowpoke – Literally a meme.
10. Ditto – Being whoever you want to be, kind of inspirational.

I believe creative work that imitate life usually will find an audience. More detailed posts regarding this list coming soon.

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

Below is my previous post on this and similar topic(s):

“Let’s make a few things clear. Yes, Japanese Pokemon cards likely came out a few years before the English versions, however, the English versions were likely the most important releases for the franchise. The 1st Edition Base Set, Shadowless and the Base Set Unlimited were all released in 1999 with various supposed print run duration. I consider all three the rookie cards of the original Pokemon. I also believe the print run size for all three releases in modern print run terms relatively small. I also believe the current premium on the 1st Edition and Shadowless Base Set prints are egregiously overvalued compared to the Base Set. I equate 1st Edition Base Set to the Bowman 1st set in baseball cards were probably only. select group of people bought and collected these hence worth they are worth a bit more in certain circles. The Shadowless is like a Bowman 1st inexpensive insert subset that’s likely not going to be worth as much as a regular Bowman 1st card of the same player in the long-run. The Base Set is like the regular rookie cards that many people purchased. 

English version of Pokemon cards were a kind of a novelty at the time of first release, the end-collectors of these cards were not adults and the cards themselves were meant to be played. No one probably thought the cards would be worth this much like it is now. The retention rate of these cards were likely extremely low for the Base Set Unlimited. The conditions on the retained cards likely were mostly in the lightly to moderately played conditions. I believe the secondary market was likely much stronger for 1st Edition Base Set and hence they were retained at a much higher rate and likely maintained in much better conditions on average. Despite the likely smaller print run, a very significant graded population for 1st Edition Base Set and Shadowless cards exist. Even if we presume the seemingly plausible rumor that 1st Edition Base Set was only printed for three days, I believe the 1st Edition Base Set to Base Set Unlimited print size ratio may be somewhere around 1:20. The difference is that I believe the 1st Edition Base Set were recognized for its potentials  at the time of release by those who bought them during release or shortly after release on the secondary markets therefore those sets were on average in much better conditions.

There likely was a much higher likelihood of these boxes being kept sealed versus Base Set Unlimited. While I still believe 1st Edition Base Set is much more rare, I believe the retention rate was significantly lower for the Base Set Unlimited Set and cards. Hence I believe the around 15X valuation of a 1st Edition versus an Unlimited Base Set may not be justified from a rarity standpoint. My guesstimate would be a 7.5X valuation is probably more reasonable at this time. I also believe in another 40 years or so, the valuation ratio will come down to around 2.5 to 4X. I believe people are opening the Base Set Unlimited boxes and packs at a much higher clip as it is more affordable to do so versus the 1st Edition Base Set. As many of the collectors today are not professional investors, many fail to grasp the premium some people are willing to pay to own an early set of something. Because all three of the above-mentioned sets came out in the same year with only likely superficial, non-core artwork or substantive playing differences and likely were designed by the same people using the same machines and sold in the same channels, I think in the long-run people will see this a multiplier issue rather than a classification issue. 

The multiplier issue will likely be mostly resolved by estimating supply and demand. What most people don’t realize yet is the original sets will continue to benefit from all future releases as they were the one and only originals. One of the frequently asked question in almost anything is the history of something. Which one do you think will get talked about more, the first few releases or the 72 release out of 100 plus releases? I believe Pokemon will likely have over 1,000 English set releases in the future and probably tens of thousands of sets releases when you count all languages. I believe there are over 2 billion Pokemon fans around the world approximately 30% of the world population. Pokémon’s ever increasing cross promotions allow it to add new fan bases and along with its various mediums including Pokemon Go, Anime, Cards, Toys, Tournaments and more, I believe the pipeline will continue to grow.

I think when cards related alternative assets become more mainstream with a large amount of mainstream investors investing into the field, more rational and less sentiments will be used in valuation. Aesthetic appeal of a card may be important, but how much more important is it over the fundamental economics? I believe one of the biggest arbitrage opportunities right now in investing in Pokemon cards is the concept of rookie cards. Many people in this space do not necessarily understand why that is important from a time value of money standpoint. Many collectors in this space are more on the nostalgic, artwork eye appeal and playability. In reality, a large population of the high-end investors or collectors do not play in any Pokemon tournaments nor even care about how it is being played. The divide between pure collectors/investors, the Anime watchers and the game players be it in electronic or physical card game format are huge. The cards are based on the games not the anime hence you almost never see Ash in any of the vintage cards except perhaps promos. I don’t mean to be condescending or anything. You may feel the same way that I feel if you were in almost everything in the very beginning. In terms of the cards hobby, I believe one’s perspective may change if one witness parents’ basement dwellers turn into nouveaux riches overnight with certain attributes akin to most lottery winners.”

You hear buy low and sell high all the time. What you rarely hear is the five Ws: Why, when, what, who and where. Let me get the most important points across first. If you want to do something successful long-term, you got to think about sustainability and scalability. What this entails is that you will need to build the infrastructure required to succeed from logistics, networking, intelligence to financing, transactional costs and mindset and everything in between. When you are at big box stores, small retail stores, local card shops, garbage sales, online market places or wherever that sell cards, you don’t always know what will be available for sale but you have to know what range of products you are in the market for even if you don’t know the specific product. Being a disciplined collector/investor is one of the first steps to being successful in this game in the long-run. You likely don’t have the resources to buy everything and not everything will yield the highest possible returns hence being a disciplined professional in this field and probably in most fields is important if you actually want to be good at what you do. This becomes critical for success because the success of the initial collection built-up is basically half of the battle. If your initial built-up is sustainable for the long-run, you will probably be successful in the long-run as it will afford you the time to work out all the kinks. 

In my opinion, buying online is extremely risky due to many reasons but mainly because most people do not have the expertise to recognize scams such as counterfeit raw cards, lower condition than what is listed, modification to cards, resealed packs, counterfeit boxes, graded cards that have alert(s) etc. I typically avoid buying online because I want to quarantine my collection from possible counterfeits. Therefore I rely mostly from offline sources for cards transactions. As I don’t believe in owning a large number of graded cards for reasons I mentioned in my previous post, buying offline from credible sources become critical for my long-term success in the hobby. One thing that most people do not realize and I believe that set the professionals from the amateurs apart is total transaction costs. The pros will look at gains and losses in total tangible and intangible terms including opportunity cost, imputed interest cost and time value of money among other criterions. Basically if I didn’t invest in this, what is my comparable returns if I had theoretically invested into something else. I can tell you as someone who has been in this hobby for decades that the best long-term returns are almost never in one-offs. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Sports cards, Pokemon and TCG professional buying and selling strategies. 

The capital intensive investments are typically not good fits for non-monopolistic players. Without having to go deep on this concept, I will just say you as someone who is not a billionaire will likely not going to be able to corner the market or influence substantially to get a big pay out from that. What smaller players succeed in is being nimble through extensive smart, non-capital intensive investments with some diversification. Whether you like it or not, if you plan to invest, you will likely have to take risks, at least calculated risks. The collectible cards industry is already a double-digit, billion m-dollar industry and growing rapidly likely reaching 100 billion in a decade or so. What this means is the market is big enough and growing fast enough for all kinds of collectors and investors to make money from. However, it takes resources to get more resources. Hence it is important to compare against alternative return rates from other potential investments that could have been made instead. With decades of experience, I can confidently say large cash outflows to acquire a few, high-end items are frequently not efficient for a newish cards collector/investor versus investing the same amount into larger asset pools of much smaller value. Remember, the operative word here is long-term. That means you may have to hold on something for years. From a liquidity standpoint, that’s likely much easier to do if you can transact portions of your investments if required at a high liquidity rate versus potentially transacting a few high value that may be less liquid possibly also incurring large transaction cost. Frequently, it’s the less expensive, desirable items that have the highest average return rates within a given range. I discussed this extensively in my previous posts regarding certain Pikachu versus Charizard cards.

In my experience, many successful cards collectors and investors transact with only a small number of counterparties to maximum leverage, minimize transaction cost and decrease risk premium. I personally find many of my best investments are large lots of good value rookie chase cards and vintage Pokemon cards I found in the dollarish boxes. The biggest driver of value is not so much the acquisition cost or current price, it is typically the demand and supply for the said item driven by scarcity. Not every single purchase from the dollarish boxes will be a winner, however, this is a probability game. You really have to know what you are doing and be right most of the time, not necessarily all the time, to win in this game. This hobby is growing so it has its own growing pains. One of the main issues I have with the state of the hobby are the social demographics of its constituting members. This field is still dominated by non-institutional investors and not extensively regulated even though many now consider cards as alternative assets. As such, it is important to safeguard your identity if possible if you are planning to be in this hobby in the long-run not just for security reasons but possibly for mental health reasons as there may be too much low grade BSes for the average global Top Ten-ers or any working professionals to deal with.

At this point, I think the Knicks are about 90% healthy and the Spurs are both about 100% healthy. Spurs, being the younger team, has mostly recovered from exhaustion from playing so many games from the previous series. Due to Brunson’s Game 1 injury scare and Robinson’s previous hand/finger injury, are getting by on the injury end through sheer will. The reason why I believe the Knicks will win Game 3 of this year’s NBA Finals is because they have done very well when they play in MSG where they score about five points more than in away games. I also think the crowd will probably be only Knicks fans due to how much tickets cost and the incentive for the Knicks to win in MSG will make Game 3 a bonafide home court advantage game for the Knicks. The big lights of MSG may be too bright for the Spurs at least for Game 3. I am concerned about Game 4 however as Spurs adjust to this and show some “dead cat bounce.” However, even so, historically no NBA team has never climbed out of a 0-3 deficit in the playoffs history. The Spurs are not a historically good team unfortunately and most likely won’t be able to break the trend. 

The other minor details that frequently don’t get talk about is time differences. The Knicks are use to the Eastern Time, while Spurs are not. Spurs during this playoffs never travelled to the East Coast for games and playing on the East Coast for two games is likely one of the longest trips it had this season playing an East Coast team. In this relatively evenly match-up series, these small difference matter as the Spurs will have to adjust to playing into the late evenings in MSG and adjusting to East Coast culture and food. Knicks playoff win streak is likely one of the biggest psychological reasons why Knicks will likely win Game 3. Inertia is hard to break because it may frequently requires a bigger, more unbalanced power to break it, aka the opposite of the said inertia. In that regard, inertia is kind of like momentum. Momentum may be hard to build but can also be hard to break once it is in motion at least in the short term. I think the Knicks have a 85% chance of winning this game. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Here is what I wrote about this topic and related topics previously.

“I think there is a 40% chance the Knicks will sweep the Spurs in this NBA Finals, a 70% chance it will win in five games, a 90% chance it will win in six games and a 99% chance it will win in seven games. I think the Knicks will most likely win in five games mostly because win streaks are usually hard to break like inertia unless something more powerful breaks it apart. Hence I believe even if the Knicks have their streak broken, they will likely still win the series, that probably is much higher if they can win Game 2. As I mentioned before the start of Game 1 of this NBA Finals, the Spurs were about 90% of themselves during that games and likely will be 95% of themselves in game 2. The Knicks essentially took away the Spurs’ home field advantage. New York and San Antonio are too totally different cities and environments. The Knicks play in arguably the world’s most famous arena with the brightest lights on them every home game. That lack of five percent from the Spurs likely in Game 2 will mean they may likely lose again. The Spurs are on an extremely short rotation heavily relying on Wemby on offense and defense. 

KAT as I mentioned before will strength Wemby out and Mitchell Robinson will dominate the paint when they are both on the floor at the same time during the Finals. Unfortunately for Wemby, he came into the league during a time when there is already a likely GOAT in Lebron James and will likely be compared to Lebron in the future in terms of greatness. Lebron has too much going for him to likely not play a few more years which likely will coincide with Wemby’s prime. My predictions are typically based on a set of dynamic factors considering both the statistical probabilities via using scientific data analytical methods and the real-world, human nature non-vacuum behavioral changes resulting from inputs and outputs that interacts ultimately creating various scenarios. When I predicted the Knicks will likely win Game 1 a day or two before the finals tip-off, I utilize historical and recent results based on various factors such as energy level, momentum/inertia, experience level, historical and recent performance etcetera combing with human factors.

Physiologically speaking, people are much more motivated and their best will come out when accomplishments are rewarded with positive reinforcements. In this case, a Knicks championship now is almost universally good for the world except for San Antonio Spurs linked entities. This version of the Spurs led by Wemby also have not had much playoff experience nor much playoff success. This is actually the Spurs’ first playoffs appearance in about seven years and the young core have no championship experience. The player one on the team who does is Harrison Barnes who is mostly a reserve player. Because of all this, the Spurs likely are mostly not expected by its fan base to win and likely have no pressure from anyone to win the championship. For the Spurs now, getting to the playoffs was already a huge success and making it to the finals was already a big surprise along with lucky breaks. In some sense, the Spurs may metaphorically have the imposter syndrome. Probably no one will be mad at the Spurs if they were swepted in the NBA Finals including their own fans, players, coaching/front office staff and ownership. I highly doubt a small market team like the Spurs for whatever its past glories were will be able to field another historical team in the next ten years which will essentially eat away all of Wemby’s prime NBA playing years. With the rise of prime market teams like the Knicks, the small market teams will become less attractive for premier free agents. Drafting top draft picks hoping to turn them into superstars will take a lot of work, time and high level development talents, which for these reasons I believe it will be a low probability event that the Spurs will be a dynasty in the next ten years.

One knock on Wemby’s cards are his best rookie cards, likely the ones that included his autographs, were unlicensed NBA cards which could indirectly affect his cards value going forward. I also think Wemby’s cards are over priced for his predicted historical value as an NBA player. I think there are two realistic ways to play this as someone who is looking to acquire new cards based on this year’s NBA Finals as of now. I think most likely both KAT and the Knicks will ink contracts to at least the 2030 season very soon. If KAT wins a championship this year as a Knicks and he maintain at around the same level of play as he exhibited during this playoff run, he will likely be a 10-time all star, earn more All-NBA honors, get at least 25,000 points, be named to All-NBA Defensive Team or two, contending for an MVP and Defensive Player of the Year and get rid of the “being soft” label for good. KAT being a high draft pick and winning the rookie of the year is simply fulfilling his potentials. Fulfilling full potentials through self-actualization of a society-professed prophecy is usually easier to achieve when it is already accepted by many as somewhat of a truth thereby will likely experience less systematic headwind when attempting to achieve such potentials. 

Putting all those philosophical points aside, what I find most attractive about KAT cards are the fact that most of his high-end rookie cards are almost unbelievably inexpensive compared to his very realistic potentials thus far. We are talking a low numbered rookie auto patch (RPA) for around 100 USD. I doubt this price level will maintain for much lower though. As someone who invested in a huge number of Jalen Brunson cards in 2018, I have to say I would not add any significant number of additional Brunson intently right now due to skyrocketing prices. As much as I think Jalen Brunson is a great player, at the end of the day, their are certain unwritten stereotypes about second round players that are still very much ingrained in the thinking of many collectors/investors that will ultimately affect how high Brunson cards value will go. Brunson and KAT will both be 30 years old at some point in 2026 yet KAT played in three more NBA seasons than Brunson did. Plus KAT is a stretch center in an almost bruisingless center area hence physically speaking, he will probably be able to play more years in the NBA. Brunson is a point guard who plays a physical post-up game, he will likely be less effective physically speaking in comparison with KAT in the timeframe as time progresses when they are both in the league. Brunson unfortunately will most likely be a hall of famer version of Isaiah Thomas formerly of the Boston Celtics in terms of career longevity trajectory. Realistically, I think KAT will be in the league for 20 years, ultimately elected to the NBA 100th anniversary team, win two to three NBA championships and likely be known as one of the top three centers in his era.”

I think both are great players but only one is an all-time great as of today. That person is Cristiano Ronaldo. Many people believe Lionel Messi is the GOAT an opinion I strongly disagree with. Most of the arguments for Messi being the GOAT centers around his record breaking numbers of trophies. Here is the thing regarding the GOAT status. If you do not dominate in almost every statistical category and is not credited as a founder of something game changing within the field, your GOATness is likely just GOATesque and forever up for debates until someone better completely passes you in the GOAT debates. Messi can’t even shake off Maradona as the best Argentina player ever, that trophies record won’t do much in this debate given he only has one trophy from uncontested greatest trophies of them all in the sports, the World Cup. Several greats have two and Peele has three. 

The biggest issue Messi will face in future years, once he retires, is he does not hold the most important statistical record important in probably just about every single sports, scoring points. Let’s be honest, four trophies from MLS counts into his trophy tallies as well. I am simply unsure how serious the trophies records will be taken if someone is able to go to a lower competition league and amass a large number of these. Ronaldo is known to be the undisputed but physically conditioned athlete in history. Ronaldo’s stronger cultural relevance global reach  and his longevity will probably set him apart. Ronaldo is also the first billionaire footballer and the likely the first football billionaire active player. Ronaldo also appears to be more popular than Messi in some of the most populous countries. 

Due to Ronaldo’s physical conditioning and physical gifts like his height advantage over Messi, something that can’t be learned, even though Ronaldo is about three years older, I predict Ronaldo will likely play at least four more years likely enough to reach the historical 1,000 goals mark in the biggest sport in the history of the world has ever seen that has never been accomplished by any one in nearly 150 years of modern soccer history, by any of the 250 million registered soccer players nor by the 130,000 active professional soccer players in 4,000 clubs across 130+ countries. Throughout history, there were probably been a million plus professional soccer players. Soccer has around four billion fans, many of them in some of the richest countries in the world. All this is to say is Ronaldo is a historical great. Bring up the trophies record that include four from the MLS seems to be a job if that record is to be taken seriously. I know my sports, I live in America and I know the level of competition in MLS versus the top leagues and I know about its fan base composition. Would people be mad if Ronaldo get like 20 trophies in the league he is playing at now and subsequently break Messi’s trophies record? The biggest underestimation of Ronaldo’s greatness is he is Mr. Portugal football. Portugal would never be a football powerhouse without Ronaldo. In Argentina, if it weren’t Messi, it likely would have been someone else given then continent and the country’s dominance in football. Ronaldo singlehandedly turned a football no body into a top football power where Portugal is consistently top five in the world in football rankings. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Ronaldo versus Messi, The GOAT debate.

At the end of the day, to me, Messi is just a glorified “Rudy” in terms of athletic gifts who just happened to be in the right place at the right time with the right conditions like how Messi only was able to play in the Olympics at 21 when his team’s new manager convinced the board to let him play despite his team winning the case to not be obligated to let him play in that Olympics. Ronaldo is the much more physically gifted athletic than Messi in probably most people’s eyes. If you look at the record books, Messi’s trophies record does not seem all that unbreakable. In the right conditions, Ronaldo could even break that record. I think the other likely reason why I believe Ronaldo will likely play for at least four more years to play with his son on the same time and at the 2030 World Cup. The 2030 will be cohosted by Portugal, Ronaldo Jr. Qualifies from an age standpoint at around 20, plus he is already part of Portugal U-16 team. This makes all this very possible. For these reasons, it will be extremely difficult to not make Ronaldo an arguable GOAT at the very least. Records are important in GOAT debates. Even Kareem was in the NBA GOAT conversation for years because of his points record and large number of championships won. However, legacy frequently dominate the GOAT conversation which is both quantified and qualified. What you got and how you got them seems to also matter. In this case, Ronaldo has the more charisma, more important records and the points to prove it. 

The trophies record is too vague of a record to be taken seriously. Levels of competition is obviously different across leagues. I know Ballon d’Or is important too, but is Kareem’s six MVP better than Jordan’s five and why is Jordan considered the GOAT by some with less points and the same amount of championships? Anyway, the standard for Ballon d’Or a French magazine issued award in collaboration with the UEFA, appeared to have shifted to align with the EUFA calendar. Ronaldo played in a non-European league for several years and currently still play there hence haven’t won one during that time where as Messi played in France between from August 2021 to June 2023 in France and won in 2023 when he was around 36 years old, both amazing and kind of coincidental right? The way I see it, Ronaldo is like Alexander the Great who accomplished everything through natural pure power and skills whereas Messi is one of the thousands of rulers in history who came to power through palace intrigue, numerous lucked out events and help from many. Ronaldo basically was born into abject where as Messi was born into relatively much financially stable family. Since both Ronaldo and Messi’s son are in various academies playing football, I think the GOAT debate will continue with how well their sons do in soccer in the coming years. I think there is a high probability that Ronaldo’s oldest son will play in 2030 World Cup which means he will play along side his father Ronaldo while Messi’s oldest son won’t for the same World Cup. Due to that World Cup being co-hosted by Portugal, Portugal will be automatically in making this decision much easier for the National Team. Even though from a marketability standpoint I know who may hold the advantage based on geographical reasons, for social contract reasons I will not discuss here. I think I know who I think the GOAT is in soccer. As already the European soccer GOAT, I personally believe Ronaldo’s rookie chase cards are tremendously undervalued.

Look, like I said a few times already in my previous posts, the biggest investment play here is likely not what you actually see but what you don’t see. In my opinion the highest absolute value returns from a net present value standpoint for the regular person that can be repeated in relative large scale, will likely be for those who are associated with Villanova University or those who will be able to associate with Villanova University within the next 18 months. After 18 months, the criteria to get into this school’s degrees programs will likely be significantly more difficult. Its requirements for admissions are already very high with seemingly lower and lower admission rates in the last seven years or so. This school is also seemingly a mostly school to career fast track type of institution with very high immediate after graduation employment rates and starting salaries for some of its top majors. 

The level of free marketing Villanova is getting as a smallish Catholic university is beyond unprecedented in world history in terms of total per invested dollar returns as a percentage of total benefits received. This university is literally the most prominent of the “you can count with two figures” Augustinian order sponsored universities in the United States and undisputedly the most famous of such schools in the world. Catholicism will probably have to change toward a model more akin to Augustinian type of true community oriented direction that combines the Jesuit wits and the healing of the human spirits to transcend in the advent era of omni-science and omni-technologies going forward. The amazing things about Villanova is it already planned these things well ahead. With over $1.3 billion in endowments and growing rapidly, in my opinions, it has historically underutilized alumni fundraising processes. Its alumni giving rates can be significantly higher than it is now, even matching that of neighboring schools will give it likely billions more USD with all its glories happening now. Villanova is also able to collect premium tuition without having to give much of its own money for financial aids due to its wealthy potential attendee family demographics. It will also likely own three prime location campuses within two years. The campuses themselves as real estate properties are probably worth billions of dollars. All this to say is Villanova likely is in a prime position to exploit every public exposure opportunities. Philadelphia is also within the metropolitan of one of the largest and wealthiest cities in the world without having to be in the city itself with all the potential problems for a wealthy institution that comes with it, again, due to social contract and taboo reasons, I won’t discuss here. It may be quite disgusting to patriot that foreign adversaries may be using such taboos to denigrate America’s greatness when a capitalistic free market should be able to take care of such perceived issues through natural evolutional paths within a democratic structure.

Even before Villanova became Villanova, it survived various crisis in many fronts because of its core values despite misdirections we may all go through from time to time. As a global Top Ten-er, I recognized Villanova’s potentials decades ago. I will say this cryptically due to social contract reasons. The number one will still be number one and the number two will still be number two. Behind openness and magnanimous is the underlying confidence, resources and prowess that you don’t see until at moments when you as an adversary may not want to see it, never saw it but still act like you saw it and reacted in your own best interest. This is called power projection, winning even without even talking about fighting. Behind all the boisterous acts belie a set of principles that already determined the winners and losers before those are even defined. 

A nearly 200 year old school will likely have the wisdom that a Hollywood regional nouveaux riches private educational institution may never have and/or the institutional control to maintain momentum and the results will ultimately show that. Ultimately the state controls public goods resources that private enterprises depend on to succeed. Being in a central location literally within reasonable driving distance to every significant metropolitan area within the US densely populated Northeast, a region that include around 1/4 of US GDP and the world history’s most important economic, political, technology and military centers. The undisputed greatest universities in the history of the known universe are within this region. The seat of power that makes the most important decisions in the world of the undisputed greatest and most power country in the history of the known universe is also in this region. The seat of power of the world that all countries come to discuss world affairs are also in this region. Location is important in real estate, it is also important for those who seek budgetary support. One can not possibly be so delusional as to be thousands miles away from the core, not be ideologically aligned to the core American tenets of good versus evil and still expect to maintain high technology centers that are frequently in one way or another funded by the American taxpayers. There are plenty of American first research focused university/universities located near the center of power or sometimes just a street away to run such prestigious and highly sensitive advanced technology centers. The cultural mental game is as important as any hardware. There are city/cities within this region that can also serve as the backdrop for entertainment that will power and propagate the greatest of America without the fear of unduly foreign potential influence. 

When the first victory lap occurred in the late 1990s and early 2000s it spurred an amazing economy and popularization of applicable everyday internet technologies. The second victory lap will likely only happen more intensely with IOT, AI, age of space explorations and many other new generation breakthroughs freely accessible by all countries in a globally democratic manner as governed by a protocol based on the future newly revamped United Nations MOU that normally only comes after world wars in all its forms. The human like many national treasure level organisms only truly prosper, propagate and raise highly talented human-beings when certain conditions are met. It is quiet telling in which geographical locations this is happening and in which geographical locations these are not happening at. Like migratory birds, they frequently migrant to the best ecosystem that fits that. It is because of this existing symbiotic relationship, they add to the splendor of nature. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Here is what I posted previously on this and similar topic(s).

“I think the future of the Knicks will be extremely bright for the next ten years. There will be more superstar free agents who will want to join the Knicks. This is also one of the reasons why I think Jalen Brunson cards may be over priced now from a long-term perspective. The biggest winners from the Knicks doing well financially besides the Knicks themselves is actually Villanova University. Villanova will likely see about 10 years of massive free marketing from the Knicks and the Pope with their combined billion plus followers where it can use this opportunity to expand its already billion dollar endowment, academic and athletic programs. Due to the school’s physical proximity to Upenn, there is an opportunity for Villanova to present itself as a near peer to the Ivy League in the next 30 years. Villanova is expanding quietly but rapidly likely completing its merger campuses of two different universities near its own campus into its own on the Main Line, one of the most affluence areas in the United States and home to the headquarters of one of the largest investment companies in the world. 

Villanova Knicks guys won their college championships, got drafted, became stars despite low draft positions and won at almost every level except for an NBA championship at this time. They are the Rudy of patience, the Radio of inspiration and the Villanova of underdogs. Like the school itself, it only took them nearly two centuries to “make it.” Its current achievements are just unbelievable in so many ways you have to understand to believe. This Knicks team is like many scrappy likely championless teams I have seen in many sports. They have the heart but don’t have the talents. I don’t think the Knicks are any different in that regard with many of these teams. Another championship team with at one Villanova player that won an NBA champion in 2019 with numerous likely first ballot hall of famers was probably significantly more talented than this Knicks team, yet it took numerous lucky breaks for it to win the championship that year.

I think Jalen Brunson is a significant upgrade from Kyle Lowry from a Villanova guard strand point. I think there are two ways to look at Jalen Brunson’s situation. To win with your college buddies, roommates whom you already won NCAA championship(s) is incredible. That one commercial about the Villanova Knicks will be an instant classic. The Knicks being televised all the time get lots of public exposure, educational institutions typically don’t get as much public exposure as professional sports teams. However, Villanova with all of its legendary underdog championships, a large and growing endowment, well-ranked, acquisition of multiple campuses, the first North America Catholic Pope, the Villanova Knicks and let’s say a Knicks championship in a few weeks will probably help Villanova become a much elite university with more notoriety, resources and academic prestige due to having more resources to spend on academic and research related endeavors. It could push Villanova to the top by becoming the best Catholic university in the world and having Augustinian values as an important part of the community. If the Knicks win, the Villanova Knicks could get better contracts in the futures and either the Knicks or other teams will be looking for Villanova players just like many global Fortune 500 employers look to hire Villanova students.”

I think the future of the Knicks will be extremely bright for the next ten years. There will be more superstar free agents who will want to join the Knicks. This is also one of the reasons why I think Jalen Brunson cards may be over priced now from a long-term perspective. The biggest winners from the Knicks doing well financially besides the Knicks themselves is actually Villanova University. Villanova will likely see about 10 years of massive free marketing from the Knicks and the Pope with their combined billion plus followers where it can use this opportunity to expand its already billion dollar endowment, academic and athletic programs. Due to the school’s physical proximity to Upenn, there is an opportunity for Villanova to present itself as a near peer to the Ivy League in the next 30 years. Villanova is expanding quietly but rapidly likely completing its merger campuses of two different universities near its own campus into its own on the Main Line, one of the most affluence areas in the United States and home to the headquarters of one of the largest investment companies in the world. 

Knicks fans due to their geographical locations are fairly richer than many other fans. This is shown recently when a large number of Knicks fans went to San Antonio and was about 40% of the stadium audience during this year’s Game 1 of the NBA Finals effectively mitigating the Spurs’ home field advantage. The Knicks have so many different good storylines right now with the whole Nova Knicks college teammates thing, developing a strong team culture, Knicks super fans potentially, finally seeing its team win and more that I think it is movie worthy. The NBA being headquartered in New York may have strong incentives for the Knicks to do well in the long run. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

The predicted future of the Knicks, Spurs and the NBA as a League.

The NBA has for years discussed having NBA teams outside of the United States and Canada, will increase the probability of their dream coming true if the league become much more wealthier. The league is already highly internationalized and there are likely already huge markets for the NBA when certain foreign countries have their own NBA franchises. I think the most likely potential for a new NBA team outside of US and Canada is likely in Mexico. Mexico City is one of the largest cities in the world already with probably the most popular NBA G League team playing in an around 22K seat capacity stadium setting attendance records with nearly 20K people attending the game. This is unbelievable when you think about the average size of an NBA G League arena and its average attendance. Mexico with a population of about 130+ million has an NBA fan base of 30 million people. If it makes sense to operate an NBA franchise in Canada with a total population of about 42 million and a fan base of about 8 million, it probably makes sense to operate an NBA team in Mexico City if the league and Mexico can work out the details. 

San Antonio Spurs on the other hand will likely not be so lucky. I think their franchise’s golden era began and ended when Tim Duncan retired unfortunately. In the age of social media, the Spurs will have a hard time attracting and developing generational talents who will stay with the team in the long run. With the internationalization of the sports where many talented players are from overseas, they will most likely want to play in big market teams to increase their marketability. Both Wemby and Brunson appear to be injury prone given their injury history. The difference is Wemby is the core and almost everything the Spurs are about on both ends of the floor whereas Brunson plays with KAT and a team full of 3 and D players such as Mikal Bridges who can help the Knicks win without Brunson in the short term. Even though Wemby is a great player, many free agents will be hesitant to play for the Spurs because of San Antonio is a small market. 

The NBA as an organization like many professional sports organizations will probably do better when its big market teams consistently do well hence the league itself may have incentives for the big market teams to do well in the long run. I think a future NBA where both of its major markets doing well will allow the league focus on supporting its other important NBA teams in key markets like Chicago, Philadelphia and Dallas become better as well. Ultimately basketball is a global game because it is easy to understand and almost accessible to anyone regardless of their social and economic situation given its lenient requirements for game play such as requirement on equipments which basically just a basketball hoop and a basketball that even one single person can play the game as a sole participant.

I think there is a 40% chance the Knicks will sweep the Spurs in this NBA Finals, a 70% chance it will win in five games, a 90% chance it will win in six games and a 99% chance it will win in seven games. I think the Knicks will most likely win in five games mostly because win streaks are usually hard to break like inertia unless something more powerful breaks it apart. When the inertia does break, there may be some “dead cat bounces” or a “last gasp.”  Hence I believe even if the Knicks have their streak broken, they will likely still win the series, that probably is much higher if they can win Game 2. As I mentioned before the start of Game 1 of this NBA Finals, the Spurs were about 90% of themselves during that games and likely will be 95% of themselves in game 2. The Knicks essentially took away the Spurs’ home field advantage. New York and San Antonio are too totally different cities and environments. The Knicks play in arguably the world’s most famous arena with the brightest lights on them every home game. That lack of five percent from the Spurs likely in Game 2 will mean they may likely lose again. The Spurs are on an extremely short rotation heavily relying on Wemby on offense and defense. 

KAT as I mentioned before will strength Wemby out and Mitchell Robinson will dominate the paint when they are both on the floor at the same time during the Finals. Unfortunately for Wemby, he came into the league during a time when there is already a likely GOAT in Lebron James and will likely be compared to Lebron in the future in terms of greatness. Lebron has too much going for him to likely not play a few more years which likely will coincide with Wemby’s prime. Unfortunately the Spurs cast at least in the next few years might not be a historical level all-time team. Wemby is also not American and plays on a very small market team which from a marketing prospective may not be the best scenario as big sports markets in America by far make the most money out of all single country markets in this category. From a cards investing standpoint, I don’t think Wemby cards are worth buying in the long-run contrary what all the hypes are all about. If you know what the current hobby hype mechanism and its typical pricing cycles, you probably know what I am talking about. In Wemby’s case, the marketability issues are just the multiplier. 

The principal issues with Wemby being even near GOATesque are for one he will likely not even sniff GOAT levels because he is in Lebron James’ era, Lebron, likely the eventually NBA GOAT will likely not retire until a few years later when he achieve most of the remaining attainable milestone records in the NBA. Secondary, Wemby is too thin and will likely not be able to gain much weight and muscle without sacrificing his potentials and increasing injury risks which historically has held true for many players with similar physique. Thirdly, I am not entirely sure if Wemby will even be top three in all-time greatest Spurs before he retires which even the greatest Spurs in Tim Duncan is an around top seven to ten player. Right now the Iceman and the Admiral are well ahead of Wemby. Though I think Wemby arguably and statistically could be ahead of the Iceman, however, I am unsure if he will ever be better than the Admiral due to the big man era he played in, his likability as a sort of NBA American hero, the Twin Towers era and his rings. Fourthly, Wemby will likely be compared to Tim Duncan, the issue here is Tim Duncan won a ring in his second NBA season at 23, Wemby likely won’t win a ring this year, even if he wins one next year, he will be slightly older than Duncan was though just by a few months. Fifthly, the era Wemby plays in could be argued as one of NBA’s weakest era for the center position. NBA in its golden era was known for its physical guards play and bruising centers. There is a reason why great shooting centers like Jack Sikma was not elected to the hall of fame until recently. And lastly, I am unsure if any of Wemby’s teammates on this Spurs team will be a hall of famer for purely NBA basketball reasons, regardless of the rigor of being inducted as a basketball hall of famer. The 2022-2023 Spurs championship team had four hall of fame players in Tim Duncan, David Robinson (his last year playing in the NBA), Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili along with one of the greatest coaches in NBA history and the NBA coach with most NBA game coaching wins, hall of fame coach Gregg Popovich. That’s five hall of famers on one team. I think the Spurs this season is the accidental Finalist. The Thunders would likely have beaten the Spurs this year had Jalen Williams not had a reinjury regardless of whether Ajay Mitchell played or not. I believe NBA teams will essentially figure out how to win against Wemby. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

What cards to collect and/or invest in based on the NBA 2025-2026 season Finals?

My predictions are typically based on a set of dynamic factors considering both the statistical probabilities via using scientific data analytical methods and the real-world, human nature non-vacuum behavioral changes resulting from inputs and outputs that interacts ultimately creating various scenarios. When I predicted the Knicks will likely win Game 1 a day or two before the finals tip-off, I utilize historical and recent results based on various factors such as energy level, momentum/inertia, experience level, historical and recent performance etcetera combing with human factors. The Knicks are in high confidence with a historical 12-playoff win streak. Physiologically speaking, people are much more motivated and their best will come out when accomplishments are rewarded with positive reinforcements. In this case, a Knicks championship now is almost universally good for the world except for San Antonio Spurs linked entities. This version of the Spurs led by Wemby also have not had much playoff experience nor much playoff success. This is actually the Spurs’ first playoffs appearance in about seven years and the young core have no championship experience. The player one on the team who does is Harrison Barnes who is mostly a reserve player. Because of all this, the Spurs likely are mostly not expected by its fan base to win and likely have no pressure from anyone to win the championship. For the Spurs now, getting to the playoffs was already a huge success and making it to the finals was already a big surprise along with lucky breaks. In some sense, the Spurs may metaphorically have the imposter syndrome. Probably no one will be mad at the Spurs if they were swepted in the NBA Finals including their own fans, players, coaching/front office staff and ownership.

I highly doubt a small market team like the Spurs for whatever its past glories were will be able to field another historical team in the next ten years which will essentially eat away all of Wemby’s prime NBA playing years. With the rise of prime market teams like the Knicks, the small market teams will become less attractive for premier free agents. Drafting top draft picks hoping to turn them into superstars will take a lot of work, time and high level development talents, which for these reasons I believe it will be a low probability event that the Spurs will be a dynasty in the next ten years. One knock on Wemby’s cards are his best rookie cards, likely the ones that included his autographs, were unlicensed NBA cards which could indirectly affect his cards value going forward. I also think Wemby’s cards are over priced for his predicted historical value as an NBA player. I think there are two realistic ways to play this as someone who is looking to acquire new cards based on this year’s NBA Finals as of now. I think most likely both KAT and the Knicks will ink contracts to at least the 2030 season very soon. If KAT wins a championship this year as a Knicks and he maintain at around the same level of play as he exhibited during this playoff run, he will likely be a 10-time all star, earn more All-NBA honors, get at least 25,000 points, be named to All-NBA Defensive Team or two, contending for an MVP and Defensive Player of the Year and get rid of the “being soft” label for good. KAT being a high draft pick and winning the rookie of the year is simply fulfilling his potentials. Fulfilling full potentials through self-actualization of a society-professed prophecy is usually easier to achieve when it is already accepted by many as somewhat of a truth thereby will likely experience less systematic headwind when attempting to achieve such potentials. Putting all those philosophical points aside, what I find most attractive about KAT cards are the fact that most of his high-end rookie cards are almost unbelievably inexpensive compared to his very realistic potentials thus far. We are talking a low numbered rookie auto patch (RPA) for around 100 USD. I doubt this price level will maintain for much lower though. As someone who invested in a huge number of Jalen Brunson cards in 2018, I have to say I would not add any significant number of additional Brunson intently right now due to skyrocketing prices. As much as I think Jalen Brunson is a great player, at the end of the day, their are certain unwritten stereotypes about second round players that are still very much ingrained in the thinking of many collectors/investors that will ultimately affect how high Brunson cards value will go. Brunson and KAT will both be 30 years old at some point in 2026 yet KAT played in three more NBA seasons than Brunson did. Plus KAT is a stretch center in an almost bruisingless center area hence physically speaking, he will probably be able to play more years in the NBA. Brunson is a point guard who plays a physical post-up game, he will likely be less effective physically speaking in comparison with KAT in the timeframe as time progresses when they are both in the league. Brunson unfortunately will most likely be a hall of famer version of Isaiah Thomas formerly of the Boston Celtics in terms of career longevity trajectory. Realistically, I think KAT will be in the league for 20 years, ultimately elected to the NBA 100th anniversary team, win two to three NBA championships and likely be known as one of the top three centers in his era.

I think this depends on your capabilities if I am being honest. This is akin to asking if buying 10 houses is better than buying just one or renting. The issue here is really affordability in all of its aspects including the initial resource outlay, return on investment, level of personal commitment, maintenance cost, on-going resource commitments among many other considerations. One major issue with diversification is the potential for lower returns due to lower risk premium and higher transactional and other costs related to diversification. I personally have invested in many of the cards I encountered on the market that were undervalued in my eyes. I would buy sports cards in TCG shops which sometimes yield great deals for me. These are some of the best arbitrage opportunities that allow someone like myself to increase exposure to many different types of cards without high transaction costs because I almost never miss a chance to buy everything when it is at an affordable prices. Many of these decisions are instinctively but they are made because risk is already minimized due to smaller transaction values per such decisions and my continuous improvement processes. 

Scale becomes important when your collection is scalable. Can you imagine owning millions of cards and tying up an enormous amount of cash flow without having a good inventory and cataloging system to know what you have? Can you imagine of having so many collectibles but having no idea what you have or where they are all located or pricing a large number of collectible inaccurately at great disadvantages to oneself? Most casual collectible investors and collectors do not realize how capital intensive this hobby can be. Prices changes constantly, having some kind of database is critical to tracking assets and making dynamic decisions. All those collectibles have to go somewhere and organized in certain ways probably requiring racks and designated inventory locations which means you may need a suitable space large enough to house all these collectible. Having racks may also mean having pallets and some type of forklift. Operating forklifts will probably require electric chargers and/or propane tanks. If you buy, sell and trade, you may need to pay various types of taxes to various jurisdictions. You may even find it more financially advantageous to set up a business entity for it. Guess what other expenses will be incurred when you do that? Probably potentially too many to count.

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Being specialized versus collecting and/or investing more broadly in collectibles.

Conditions matter a lot in this hobby so pictures of valuable cards need to be taken for cataloging purposes to determine its value both for oneself and potential buyers. Since prices change constantly, it is important to have an easy way to change marked prices on cards, electronic price tags may be helpful. Keeping collectibles in good condition entails having apparatuses, methodologies and procedures to temperature control, humidity control, particle control, fire proofing, UV control, pest control and etc. Keeping asset physically safe is also very important. This entails potentially getting locked safes, security cameras, subscribe to home security providers, buy insurances and using protective casing such as sleeves, top loaders, slabs and slab guards to protect the card from degrading. You may also need custom cases for mobile transportation of cards. If you plan to display your cards, you may need to buy various types of display cases. There are also significant intangible costs to keeping a large cards collection such as constantly analyzing what one has in order to make the most optimal financial decision on the assets. Such assets may also need to be physically inspected on a periodic basis to minimize damages to assets and shrinkage. 

Every prudent scaling decision made early on can make a huge difference later on when errors in management of assets become significantly more costly. There are many other intangible costs associated with collecting in general such as sentimental attachment to certain collectibles that may cloud one’s ability to make prudent business decisions. At the end of the day no matter what your relationship is with certain collectibles, these assets are valuable resources that may yield future benefits for those who possess them. Allowing a collection to make decisions for the owner of a collection is another potential pitiful that frequently occurs. This entails people organizing their life’s plans around the collectibles themselves such as living in a certain geographical location or even dwell in the same living quarters for a long period of time in order to create the best conditions for the collection’s long-term viability. Some people may be hesitant to invite friends or family over or going on a vacation because they are afraid of their collectibles being potentially stolen. In essence, they are becoming servants to the exact resources that may help them generate wealth instead of the other way around. The way I personally avoid these issues is by invisible benefits swapping. I may give away certain things to certain people in exchange for potential future benefits such as potentially helping me with other things on a voluntary and legally compliant basis. By doing this frequently and broadly, the probability of getting some type of help in the future when I most needed it is reasonably high.

I was able to pick up boxes of non-big four major American sports’ superstars and GOAT rookie cards for Pennies per card for years. A lot people in mostly middle to upper class favorite sports like tennis, figure skating, golf, pickle ball and etcetera don’t really collect cards. Astute people will say if their fans don’t really collect the sports cards, it probably won’t be worth that much and the market won’t be that big. That is true to some extend but not all the way. If I am able to pick these cards up fairly cheap and only a small portion of my collection is made up of those cards, from a cash flow standpoint I can hold it for a while waiting for its appreciation without having any urgency to transact them. Because I hold so little of these cards, it will be easier for me to transaction these assets at reasonable market prices as small quantity transactions will help me clear inventory. Most people who are looking to buy at smaller quantities likely are willing and could possibly pay a bit more per a small lot on a per unit stand point versus a large lot on a per unit standpoint. My motto in this kinds of debates is diversify but microfy. Most cards from multi-sports products of North American non-four major sports are usually over looked. I now have a decently large amount of non-major four North American sports GOATs rookie cards that are likely still appreciating in value that I paid almost nothing for.

I don’t think neither entrepreneurship nor working for others are the best options. Entrepreneurship typically takes a lot of skills, experience, effort and resources to succeed. From an average expected value standpoint, entrepreneurship is a losing game for the vast majority of people. Depending on your definition of a successful entrepreneur, I would argue there probably are more moderate to major jackpot prize winners in various contests in the US now than there are actually successful entrepreneurs. That’s probably not a coincidence. For every successful entrepreneur, there are probably thousands of less successful ones. Besides controllable factors, there are tons of uncontrollable market risks such as bad timing that can devastate a new entrepreneurial venture. The risk of failure are extremely high for a new venture. Working for others appears to provide a stable income, however, it usually comes with less flexibility, lower ceiling in potentials and doing something potentially one find meaningless. For these reasons, I like the Mezzanine approach. The difficult part about implementing the mezzanine career approach is the work-life balance part. How can one still remain desirable as an employee on the job market when one is looking for a job and keeping a desirable job after being hired for a position while at the same time also be successful in entrepreneurship activities. This may take a lot of navigating in many different aspects. 

Most people don’t get rich from working for other people. Some people will point to the highest paying major professionals like doctors And to say medical doctors are rich. While doctors on average make a great salary on average at around $400K a year, most doctors also have to go through 10+ years of post high school education and become doctors if they qualify after meeting various rigorous criteria in their 30s. Most doctors also have 300K or more in debt before they even become doctors. If one were able to work the approximate ten years during or after college and save that money in a 401(k), just based on market appreciation, an annual total 20K contribution (including contribution from the employer) at average calculated market growth of around 10% growth in 15 years will be $600K+. It also comes with tax advantages which I will not discuss at this time. An HSA for those who qualify in addition to a 401(k) for those who qualify could potentially be even more tax advantaged. Anyway, by the time the doctor pays off his or her debt, the non-doctor already has likely $600K+ in retirement account savings than the doctor has. Because there is a limit in tax advantages 401(k) annual contributions by a person while working for an employer, the doctor can not simply catch-up in 401(k) savings the regular way (unless we are talking about catch-ups exceptions at certain age) by throwing money at it. What this means is even if the non-doctor does not contribute anymore to a 401(k) plan after they saved $600K+ in 401(k) their money will grow to at least a few millions after 30 years more than enough to live comfortably in retirement. Ultimately, neither of these above methods will help one get truly do whatever you want wealthy.

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

How to be well-off without taking excess risks?

Doctors will probably cave in social pressures to live a relatively expensive doctor lifestyle which due to political correct taboos I will not detail what this may entail here. It will likely not be a cheap lifestyle and likely not all being enjoyed by the doctor but rather by those who I also will not talk about due to political correct taboo reasons. Most doctors are not business professionals and while they are busy treating passions like professional athletes trying to be the best in their sport, there may possibility be people who may or may not be taking advantage of them financially for which I will not state due to social contract reasons. Point being, being wealthy may allow one to have the discretion of stop working and doing whatever they like, when whenever they like and however they like within a legally compliant manner within certain acceptable boundaries. That is what have FU money is all about. Being wealthy also means having the influence to exact changes to one’s advantage frequently utilizing other people’s and/or entities’ resources legally. The biggest issue with employees is they are essentially paycheck to paycheck without reasonable  certainty of their employment status from one day to another either due to controllable and/or uncontrollable factors. They are essentially exchanging one valuable resource which is their precious time for another valuable resource which is money. 

Employees only make what they earn when they use their own valuable time to own them, therefore they can not employ capital inefficiently in this endeavor without, you guessed it, expending more time. The whole time value of money concept is really meant for money to work for you passively without you intently expending your time. Money when managed right is the best, drama-free, salary-free and low-maintenance employee ever. I am not advocating for entrepreneurship alone. The reality is having a stable paycheck is great. Many successful entrepreneurs worked for other people before they became successful themselves. It is also important to have startup capital and experience which could be obtained by working for successful companies for a number of years. The social element is also important too as having coworkers to communicate everyday helps  keep one within mainstream society and (mostly) helps maintain a stable mental help and help stay away from depression due to loneliness. Many ideas are created by seeing things in action and realizing a problem and a solution through social interactions. Great ideas usually don’t get created in a vacuum.

I still believe the OKC Thunders were the easier team for the Knicks to defeat in the 2025-2026 NBA Finals due to their injury issues. With that being said, the Spurs seems to be so exhausted from playing four more playoff games than the Knicks did this year. The Spurs will have to fly home or ride the bus for seven hours back to San Antonio to face the Knicks in just a little over three days after concluding the previous playoff series. Unlike the fully rested and extremely energetic Knicks with almost everyone who is somebody rooting for it to win, the Spurs have two key players who just recovered from injuries in Fox and Harper. The Knicks have much more playoff experience and finishing the Finals for New York is probably a life and career changing event for everyone on the team. Wemby, Castle and the Spurs’ core rotation played a lot of minutes due to the very short rotation. The Spurs also allows five more points per game than Knicks though Spurs scores about 5 more in away games. Knicks are typically make more 3-point field goals per game and make threes at a higher percentage.

KAT the center can stretch the floor extremely well as probably the best shooting big man in the game today something Wemby can’t match at this point. KAT is also heavier than Wemby but still moves quite well. Because the Knicks already have an elite defensive center in Robinson, they can afford for KAT to stretch Wemby out. Because the Spurs depend on Wemby so much on offense and defense, this strategy will be devastating for the Spurs. Any way you look at the rosters of the two team, besides a debatable about whether KAT or Wemby are better right now as players, every other starting position the Knicks have the better player playing. Knicks top reserves are also notably better in almost all aspects than that of Spurs. Spurs has no other legitimate rim protecting centers besides Wemby. Wemby averages about 29 points in the regular season but frequently play around 40 minute games in the playoffs. An elite defender like Robinson and a good defender plus one of the best 3-point shooting big man in the game will probably just be overwhelming. Plus the Knicks have a lot of 3-and-D guys.

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Why do I think the New York Knicks will win this year’s NBA Finals?

Anyone who played sports or watched sports probably know how much exhaustion affect a player’s performance. Exhaustion is not only physical but mental as well. I estimate due to Spurs’ intense playoff schedule, top heavy lineup and short rotation, it will probably only be 90% of who they are during Game 1 of the 2025-2026 NBA Finals. Knicks on the other hand will be 100% themselves due to enormous incentives to bring a championship to New York and how well-rested they are. Game 2 Spurs will probably be 95% themselves, the Knicks will probably still at 100%. I think the Knicks will most likely win Game 1. Knicks will have a greater than 50% to win Game 2. Knicks will be the favorite in this Finals in any home game. 

Looking back to the 1999 NBA Finals when the 8th seed Knicks faced top seeded Spurs, it was literally David versus Goliath. Spurs had two all-time greats in Duncan and Robinson, one of the greatest coaches in NBA history in Popovich, one of the best 3-point shooters in NBA history Steve Kerr, some of the best defenders in the game versus a Knicks team at the time basically full of non-hall of famers with their one hall of famer Ewing who was injured and did not play in that Finals. What is interesting was that even under those circumstances that Knicks team still won a game in the series and lost another game by just one point, both of which happened in Madison Square Garden. I think the bright lights of New York has something to do with it. The Spurs point scored in away and home games are essentially the same yet the Knicks score over five points more at home versus away. The Knicks are out scoring and allowing less points than the Spurs during this year’s playoffs.

This 2025-2026 Knicks team is much different than the one from the 1998-1999 NBA season. Not only are they not the underdogs, they are straight up alphas and sigmas. Jalen Brunson could become a 100 anniversary player in the future and likely a borderline future hall of famer already. KAT is already a likely future hall of famer. Mike Brown is the much better coach in terms of experience and accolades hands down in this match up. If he wins a championship as the head coach, he will most likely become a future hall of famer himself after coaching a few more years. With each NBA Finals game this year paced around two days apart, in a seven game series, the well rested Knicks will have a significant advantage. I think there will be a couple of major winners from Knicks winning the championship. Obviously Knicks fans are one of the biggest winners. The other big winners are Jalen Brunson, Jalen Brunson cards collectors and Villanova University. If the Knicks wins the Finals this year, Jalen Brunson will be like Joe Namath. Villanova University will probably be the biggest winner from all of this. The Knicks being televised all the time get lots of public exposure, educational institutions typically don’t get as much public exposure as professional sports teams. However, Villanova with all of its legendary underdog championships, a large and growing endowment, well-ranked, acquisition of multiple campuses, the first North America Catholic Pope, the Villanova Knicks and let’s say a Knicks championship in a few weeks will probably help Villanova become a much elite university with more notoriety, resources and academic prestige due to having more resources to spend on academic and research related endeavors. It could push Villanova to the top by becoming the best Catholic university in the world and having Augustinian values as an important part of the community. If the Knicks win, the Villanova Knicks could get better contracts in the futures and either the Knicks or other teams will be looking for Villanova players just like many global Fortune 500 employers look to hire Villanova students. Spurs is a young team that may have opportunities in the future to win the Finals, however, this is likely not the year for them to win it all. 

Yes. That’s exactly how the Villanova Knicks guys won their college championships, got drafted, became stars despite low draft positions and won at almost every level except for an NBA championship at this time. Contrary to popular belief, I believe the Thunders are a much easier team to beat. I watched too much sports to not have learned a few things or two. Teams with injured key players usually don’t do too well. The injury bug is mental as it is human nature. The root cause is actually pretty startling. Imagine you work super hard for something while you watch someone else relaxing on the bench and will collect a championship while you toll. Your mind might just subconsciously give up a little bit. That small difference at high levels essentially is what wins or loses championships. Team chemistry is like bonus points or extra credit. If you score 50, 60 all the time, the extra credit probably won’t make you an A student. You might pass the class but won’t get well-off from it. The Knicks are probably a 87/100 team in relative rankings of solely going by roster strength. The Knicks do not have any ”near GOAT plus players.” Almost every star on the team were looked down upon as players at some point in their career. They are that B+ student with an A+ attitude. They are the Rudy of patience, the Radio of inspiration and the Villanova of underdogs. Like the school itself, it only took them nearly two centuries to “make it.” Its current achievements are just unbelievable in so many ways you have to understand to believe. 

This Knicks team is like many scrappy likely championless teams I have seen in many sports. They have the heart but don’t have the talents. I don’t think the Knicks are any different in that regard with many of these teams. Another championship team with at one Villanova player that won an NBA champion in 2019 with numerous likely first ballot hall of famers was probably significantly more talented than this Knicks team, yet it took numerous lucky breaks for it to win the championship that year. The difference is the team chemistry and everybody including some very important groups of people and entities who may want them to win not too dissimilar to everybody wanted a team named the Patriots to win the Super Bowl in 2001 with a 6th round second year quarterback, three eventual and likely hall of famers on the team versus Super Bowl team average of five to six, a track record of previously being unsuccessful and having won zero Super Bowls over three decades before that. Momentum builds and the rest is history. Plausible denial may only delay how history wants itself to be told for so long. Patrick Ewing draft pick or not, I think most teams need more than luck, resources and aspirations to win a championship. The sad part for basketball purest is the Knicks probably have the best realistic odds of winning this championship not because of who they are but because of who the opponents are. 

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Will the Knicks win and should you invest in Jalen Brunson chase cards?

Many say the San Antonio Spurs will be the New York Knicks’ easiest opponent in the NBA Finals, I strongly disagree. Except for Fox, all of Spurs’ good guards are all the size of small forwards and some may be able to play a stretch power forward with no one really daring to go straight to the rim without thinking twice when Wemby is nearby. San Antonio can afford to play a smaller lineup with Wemby in the paint. Wemby is already a global superstar, neither Brunson nor Towns are at this time. Wemby, Fox, Johnson, Castle and Harper is a significantly stronger lineup than that of the Knicks’.  Exhibit B’s Oklahoma City Thunders on paper is probably the best team with SGA, Chet, Three Williams, Wallace, Caruso, Hartstein,  McCain, Dort and Mitchell. In reality, the second best player on the team Jalen Williams will likely play limited minutes if he plays in all games in the series. Ajay Mitchell the sixth man is also injured. Given SGA is a 30+ points scorer on average and everyone else average below 20 with Jalen Williams in essence the team’s second best scorer and Ajay Mitchell the 4th best scorer on the team. Whoever get their minutes in the series will probably on average score 10 points less than they do on average aggregate scale. The Spurs are like the Knicks with a clean injury report.

I think the Thunders will likely win their home game to go to the Finals through experience that the Spurs are likely too youthful to have gained. Against the Knicks that will be a much different story. Villanova players under a certain coach knows the pump fake very well. SGA is also for whatever reason becoming a less likeable player in the eyes of some fans whereas Wemby is continuously praised with many who may have entrenched interest in having him win a few championship. On paper OKC is a much better team, in reality, Knicks will have a much better chance facing OKC than Spurs in my opinion. The Spurs also have a Manifest Destiny type of attitude as they won five championships in the last 30 years and Wemby was literally coached by the man who helped them win all five. OKC although won a championship, it is a much newer team with only one championship in a small state without the basketball pedigree San Antonio has in its nearly 60 years history. 

Imagine you have to rely on one foot because the other foot is injured, do you know how much weight and stress that is going to bring to the good foot and injury risk to the good foot? The worst part is, you have to take care of the injured body part by slowing down and recover decreasing overall efficiency. The Thunders have been relying too much on SGA potentially creating a Tyrese Haliburton  2024-2025 Finals situation in the making. The bottom line is, the Spurs are the much more difficult match up for the Knicks at this stage than the Thunders. I think Jalen Brunson is a significant upgrade from Kyle Lowry from a Villanova guard strand point. I think there are two ways to look at Jalen Brunson’s situation. If he wins, his cards will likely go much higher. If he loses, his cards will probably be cheaper in the off-season and probably even cheaper if he is in a slump early next season. I think he will stay with the Knicks for at least a few more years, likely 5-10 years. Knicks are probably willing to spend money on the team to continue to be good. I think if Jalen Brunson lead the Knicks to be championship this year, he will be a hall of famer and if he do a little more in his career he will be an NBA 100th anniversary player. The Knicks plays in Madison Square Garden, one of the most storied stadiums in the world. Knicks have been starving for a championship for a long-time and the league does need the Knicks to win. New York is unquestionable the richest city in the world consistently and on average for the last 100 years or so. 

I repeat, if Brunson wins this championship, his chase cards especially his rookie chase cards are probably going to increase exponentially. While a lose might decrease his cards value somewhat but likely no where near the absolute percentage swing of him winning the championship. To win with your college buddies, roommates whom you already won NCAA championship(s) is incredible. That one commercial about the Villanova Knicks will be an instant classic. Jalen Brunson rookie chase cards are selling at only a fraction of SGA’s cards, yet the first Knicks championship in over half a century and in the modern era probably means way more for the world than OKC winning again or Spurs winning under Wemby. Knicks winning this year is like the Red Sox winning in 2004 after over 100 years not winning one. It’s historic. 

Before I get started discussing this topic, no, I will probably not do a list of top 10 US universities with the most downsides or the top 10 list of the most overrated US universities. If you read some of my previous posts, you probably already figured out what your favorite permanent contrarian is all about. If I had a choice, all things being equal or slightly unequal, I would select colleges with names of alpha-ish cities as a central part of their names. I would also choose overall university prestigious over “major” or “school/division” prestige. If a school is overall prestigious, I believe all their offerings will likely revert to the mean eventually, meaning they will eventually be ballparkish great too regardless their current state due to resources expended and prestige of the parent brand. I would prefer to choose majors that are skills specific versus industry specific which means I will probably not choose those overly interdisciplinary sounding majors. I would also choose schools with amazing athletics as those are amenities and traditions that build a strong alumni network, increase giving rate and endowments which eventually translate to hire rankings and better job prospects for new graduates from the university. 

I believe the best bang for the buck private schools are in the “Upper-Atlantic” regional colleges and universities. Many of these school do become “national research universities.” For those who want a state college experience and save some money, I believe some of the supposed “second tier” state college systems in the “bi-costal” areas may hold a lot of value. Many people fantasize living or visiting alpha-ish cities which likely include future interviewers and recruiters. I say this because doing so is essentially trying to squeeze a dime out of a dollar which means one can not be too choosy in many aspects including where to work geographically wise after graduation from college. Staying locally is probably not the best choice as in any competitive world-class super alpha US cities will likely have numerous top schools including Ivies or Ivy Equivalents. However, play the “diversity game” when one is go for broke through prestige arbitrage. Local recruiters from prestigious firms probably know the local landscape well and probably recruit where many of their top employees graduated from. Let’s be honest, if you are employing this strategy, it likely mean you either sucked as a student for whatever legitimate reasons you believe to true, don’t have the resources to go to a more prestigious school or both. Admitting and recognizing these facts and swallowing your pride is the first step to possibly succeed in utilizing this strategy. Obviously you may already hit rock bottom from academic standpoint, you may need to maintain a respectable GPA and possibly gain a top leadership position within a prestigious student organization at your school. I think some private universities in the 40-80 range as ranked by a not to be named popular undergraduate school ranking list may be undervalued gems from a potential higher future prestige standpoint. Because these schools are already in the “big league,” their prestige surge may be “trajectorally” different in exponential growth than the previously abovementioned types of universities. These schools may require marginally more resources or efforts to get into, however I think the upsides are much higher than the abovementioned types of good value schools.

I personally believe many public universities are ranked too high due to non-academic reasons at this time contrary to current/potential future MEI trends. Too many of these high public school rankings are likely based on grand sounding achievements that in actuality does not benefit those it is not trying to benefit and likely won’t benefit those who it is trying to benefit in the long-run due to human nature and “The John Locke versus Thomas Hobbes problem.” Delaying the natural evolutionary process or creating man-made interventions may or may not work from a historical standpoint. I think it is quite clearly DEI or MEI is currently winning in the last year or two from an admissions standpoint. The statistics increasingly show high productivity from these seemingly admission related MEI decisions in academia, business, society etc.

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Below are my top 10 US Universities with tremendous upsides for a non-elite student list:

1. A particular former regional university in the Northeastern with well-known athletics and academics that may present a prestigious arbitrage opportunity for the right person
2. A particular 40-80 overall ranked school as per a certain popular undergraduate ranking list
3. Certain public school with one of the three major Alpha/Alpha++ US cities as the central part of its name
4. Certain public school with one of the three major Alpha/Alpha++ US cities as the central part of its name
5. Certain public school with one of the three major Alpha/Alpha++ US cities as the central part of its name
6. Certain public school with one of the three major Alpha/Alpha++ US cities as the central part of its name
7. Certain public school with one of the three major Alpha/Alpha++ US cities as the central part of its name
8. Certain public school with one of the three major Alpha/Alpha++ US cities as the central part of its name
9. Certain public school with one of the three major Alpha/Alpha++ US cities as the central part of its name
10. Certain public school with one of the three major Alpha/Alpha++ US cities as the central part of its name

Ultimately I believe one’s attitude toward life is a big part of one’s potential success(es) or lack of success(es). 

Kobe Bryant is one of my favorite basketball players of all time. In my opinion, his dedication and attitude toward the game were unparalleled. From an investment standpoint, however, I would not invest a large sum of money into Kobe collectibles. It’s not that I do not believe his cards will grow in value. It’s the fact that I believe his cards will grow in value slower than other high potential investments. I won’t discuss any potential off-court issue(s) in deference to my admiration for Kobe the athlete. Strictly from a basketball standpoint however, I think Kobe, being already a borderline NBA top 10 of all-time player, will likely be squeezed out of the list within 10 years and into the top 15-20. In my opinion, Curry, KD, SGA and Jokic all have greater than 50% probability of becoming a top 10   All-time NBA player. All four players won at least one championship ring and an MVP, will probably have more career points than Kobe with Jokic having the lowest probability of surpassing Kobe’s points total at around 50%. 

Curry being the greatest pure shooter of all-time is probably already a top 10 player now and he will likely play a few more years. If KD joins the 40,000-point club he will most certainly be a NBA top 10 player of all time. The reality is, Kobe at this moment is probably already outside of the NBA top 10 all-time list. You can make an argument that either Lebron, Kareem or Bill Russell is the GOAT and not Jordan due to their unique accomplishments. Kobe, however, is in essence statistically speaking, a lesser version of Jordan as a player. Although Kareem played against Jordan, he was statistically superior to Jordan in almost every way during the era they both played in the league. Lebron never played in the league against Jordan, however, he is better than Jordan in many career statistical categories. No superstar player had won more NBA championships than Lebron did during the period that Lebron played NBA basketball. Lebron played in a highly fragmented era where there were no dominating superstars better than him. Kevin Durant was probably the second best active player in Lebron’s NBA basketball playing era. Lebron will most likely play for a few more years, that’s probably not the best news for anyone currently playing in the NBA who is trying to be the GOAT or those who are coming to the league aspiring to be the next GOAT. Even at Lebron’s current age, he is still dominating in the playoffs without any superstars or even true stars playing next to him. Lebron is metaphorically working a difficult job while rocking the baby cradle or possibly two at the same time in the future. I think as long as Lebron is playing, the era will still belong to Lebron. Anyone with the same amount of championships either retired or close to retirement and are highly unlikely to win another championship. The relatively young players in the league mostly only have one championship if they have one at all. None of them will likely have more championship than Lebron have before he retires. I believe if Lebron can play another 4-5 years, get 50,000 regular season NBA points, win another championship while playing with his two sons on the same team, Lebron will likely be the GOAT of GOATs. Even if he only accomplish some of these milestones, he will likely be the NBA GOAT within 20 years.

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Here is what I posted previously regarding a similar topic. 

“Lebron is unquestionably the most dominating NBA player in the 21st century. It is safe to say the first 30 years of the 21st century in the NBA was dominant by Lebron James. I believe Lebron will retire at least after the 2030 season. If Tom Brady can play to 45, Lebron James definitely can. If Gordie Howe can play 32 years in professional hockey and retire at 52, so can Lebron if he wanted to. I believe Lebron can play another 7-10 years at an above average level. Kobe might arguably not even be the greatest Laker of all time and the Lakers produced about half of the top 10 players. 

The bottomline is, when things are based on relative comparisons versus absolute, everything must be taken into consideration. I believe Kobe collectibles will not generate as high of growth on returns as some other similar investments. The scary part is, I believe Lebron could get one or two more championships.  Jordan and Lebron are both naturally gifted and hardworking, the difference is Lebron was already deemed “chosen one” in high school, has great continuity without the distractions of multiple retirements. There is a reasonable likelihood Kobe will fall from the Top 15 due to his only one MVP and being the second best player on a team for years. Lebron was the best player on all of his championship teams. While Jordan had two other 75th anniversary players on his team, Lebron only had one other 75th anniversary player. 

There are only so many players that can fit into a certain “top” something list, it is important to continue a pipeline of investments in order to be successful in this game in the long run. It is important to do so because GOATs may change overtime and current GOATs may be supplanted by new GOATs hence keeping the pipeline of new rookie card investments help build a formidable moat against trend changes. Eventually someone is going to sit on the top of the GOAT pyramid, ultimately it’s just a matter of who. You won’t always be right or wrong, second guess yourself doesn’t help either. You invest into what you invested in for a reason. I typically don’t change my mind on investments but I do protect myself through diversification and hedging. I typically reevaluate their GOATistics periodically to determine whether they will become GOATesque or not. I frequently study the GOAT list of the sheep or their bellwether to arbitrage between goat s*** and milk balls. Selling cards because you want to typically means you will lose money regardless for what cause. People who truly collect cards in the first place love cards that have signs of becoming heirlooms and will most likely not even consider parting with these cards until they reach some ridiculous certain 1952 card value level.

That means will most likely create volatility in card is one of the greatest-of-all-times (GOAT or at the very minimum a once in a generation talent and/or there is something special about the card itself that was later discovered that had nothing to do with the behaviors of the athlete. As mentioned earlier, I prefer to invest in lower valued versions of alternative assets that have all the right attributes because it allows me to free up cash by diversifying my risk into numerous smaller investments while keeping my portfolio liquid at the same time aiming for a higher expected value. Hence because the GOAT of a sport is literally just one person or a handful of people at the most, a title that take frequently decades of work to achieve and is often only publicly recognized and granted with consensus years later. 

One would argue identifying a potential GOAT who likely had to be benchmarked against hundreds of thousands of contemporaries and predecessors in the few popular sports that actually have a large sports cards collecting fan base, the premium for the massive amount of effort and resources that are poured into this search is akin to finding a specific atom with just the right amount of electrons, protons and neutrons in whatever its required final form be it ionization, fusion or whatever else in a forest in the dark racing against time and with a copious amount of other hunters now that they smelled the money from  a potentially $100 billion dollar future industry,  have to be huge for all this expenditure to be worth it. Most people like winners and matters with certain desirable attributes, some people are actually willing to pay for these features.”

The short answer is I think 1999 English version Base Set Pokemon cards are a good value. I believe Pikachu is one of the most popular characters in the history of the entertainment world. The starter Pokemon and its evolutionary line in the anime are quite popular. Due to the popularity of Gengar, Gastly and Haunter appears to be somewhat popular too. I think this is a great set and many of the lower costing non-holographic cards in this set may be of good value. Out of the over 1,000 Pokemon, these Pokemon are some of the most popular. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Here is what I wrote previously on this and similar topics:

“If Charizard is power then Pikachu may be grit. If Charizard cards command a premium then Pikachu cards likely represent higher CAGR within a given price range. There are likely an infinite number of ways to collect, most people collect whatever they like. Fundamentally speaking, I am the exact same way. The difference is that I take a competitive spin to investing because I enjoy winning. Winning takes on many forms and shapes. Some victories may seem losses at first and other victories may be Pyrrhic in nature. You likely can’t win on every transaction but you probably don’t have to secure victory in every battle to win a war. One thing is for sure is you likely won’t win anything if you are not properly prepared for winning even when the opportunity presents itself. I am not trying to split hairs by saying investing in Charizard or Pikachu cards are better than the other. Each types of cards clearly could be winners no matter how you view the situation. I am talking about compatibility to my alternative investing strateg(ies). I am not trying to be funny or anything, but I think Pikachu is basically a mouse. When you think about all the prominent mice in the world, which I will not name due to “you probably guessed it” reason(s), you don’t always get a sense of overwhelming raw, menacing power. If a sports team name their team after a type of mice, I am not sure what the fans will think. 

From a card investing standpoint, regular Pikachu cards typically are common cards. After the original series from the WOTC Pokemon cards era ended, many subsequently produced official Pokemon cards of Pokemon introduced during the WOTC Pokemon cards era may have been downgraded from rare to uncommon and from uncommon perhaps to common. All that to say is as the Pokemon universe expanded or continues to expand, powerful Pokemon may continue to emerge hence some of the original Pokemon from the WOTC card era may become relatively less rare and powerful. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

I believe Pikachu has much higher appreciation growth potential in terms of return on investments than Charizard cards. Almost any holo Charizard cards probably are going to be some type of rare or promo whereas many Pikachu cards are mostly common and sometimes promos. The starting price for Charizard cards usually are much higher than that of Pikachu cards due to Charizard being a rarer and one of the most powerful Pokemon in the Pokemon universe. Pikachu, however, is much more accepted as being cute, approachable and inspirational. Pikachu merchandises seems to be literally everywhere and may frequently cross-promote with other intellectual properties. Pikachu to me is more than just an animation character, it is literally the biggest universal icon in the history of this world. In my opinion, Charizard is a cult favorite whereas Pikachu is universally beloved and recognized by almost everyone. In athletics terms, Pikachu may be comparable to the superstar guard most lay people have deemed as the GOAT, Charizard on the other hand appears to metaphorically resemble a dominant 7-foot center likely considered the best center of all-time. 

When you think about it, Pikachu is probably a double-digit, billion-dollar industry on its own likely representing a 100+ billion dollar brand yet Pikachu official Pokemon cards are likely only a small percentage of the entire value chain. What is interesting about this is most people would probably say the most collectible Pokemon product is probably Pokemon cards even though it appears Pokemon actually make significantly more money from non-Pokemon cards merchandises. Without stating all the boring details from a marketing and business standpoint regarding the above, I believe the lesson here is Pokemon cards have potentially significant growth opportunities as it is currently not even any where close to being the most significant part of the Pokemon products market size. Many modern common, non-holo/foil/promo/error Pikachu cards possibly can be bought for a few cents each in bulk versus around at least a dollar for the most common Charizard cards. I believe Pikachu is the Pokemon’s spiritual equivalent of the “Logoman” for the NBA or whatever equivalent of the “Logoman” in other major sports league. It is no wonder that some of the most prized Pokemon cards feature Pikachu and not of any other Pokemon. 

Pokemon and Pokemon cards of course are relatively new compared to some other brands/franchises and other classes. This may be why the price premium multiplier between newer more modern Pokemon cards and the older vintage WOTC era cards are not as significant as other types of certain types of vintage sports cards. I think the complete human history can not be fully told without the inclusion of the collectibles phenomenon therefore I view Pokemon cards as potential major human artifacts. The collectible cards industry may reach $100 billion dollars within a decade or two due to likely high CAGR which will be a major milestone in human history and have broad impacts on society. A likely large, critical mass  percentage level of the world’s population are already collecting cards. This trend may continue to grow at the current or a more rapid pace in the near future. When one Pikachu card can increase by $10+ million and more than double its worth in a matter of a few years, cards that may share certain attributes may also be positive affected, the rest are just multipliers. There may be many examples of this phenomenon happening in recent times, one of which is how the popularity of Gengar cards are affect its “downstream/evolutionary downstream lineage” Pokemon cards like Haunter and Gastly. 

If I were a new card collector and knowing what I know now, I would probably make Pikachu cards the staple of my collection. I would probably also buy some other cards that will make up a much smaller percentage of my collection to better diversify my alternative assets investment portfolio. I personally believe Pikachu cards have a higher upside than many other cards. When the Pikachu English version Base Set cards first came out it was probably worth a penny per card for many collectors at the time if anyone even bothered buying it as a single since they were common, non-holographic cards and much easier to pull than certain holographic cards. At about $4+ USD in raw, ungraded card format currently, the same card has increased around 40,000%. Charizard cards in the English version Base Set were rare, holographic cards. Approximately 1 in 3 English Base Set packs contained a holographic card and approximately every 40+ packs had a Charizard card. At the time those packs were selling at around $3.50 USD a pack. Base Set Charizard English cards at the time when they first came out were commanding around $50+ USD on the secondary markets. They are currently around $400 USD. Let’s just say it’s about a 700% increase which sounds impressive. However, when you consider that took 20+ years to get there and S&P 500 index grew by about 750% in the same period when its component stocks are much more liquid, you may think differently. 

What about graded versions of these that got a “10” score? For simplicity sake, let’s just say the market value of an English version Base Set Pikachu cards in that graded condition is about $1,000 USD and the Charizard is about $30,000 USD. In that case, the Pikachu card is around 100,000% increase and the Charizard card is about a 58,000% increase. When you look even deeper, you may realize less than 1% of the graded Charizard English version Base Set card submitted to a certain popular card grading company may actually get a “10” score. The difference in value between a lower score of “9” and a “10” can be very significant for that card. The English version Base Set Pikachu card may have a much higher percentage of a “10” score under likely similar circumstances as described above. The above also does not account for how much more liquid the Pikachu versus the Charizard card per the above is due to price differences. The cost difference to grade a 50,000+ USD card versus a $1,000+ USD card can also be incredibly large. The print run difference between 1st edition base set and base set may or may not be as large as some people think. In summation, I believe Pikachu cards at least some of its WOTC cards may carry a much higher “time value premium”, even when they are risk/liquid adjusted, than cards of most other Pokemon.”

I think if you have to ask this question then in my opinion the answer is going to most likely be going to “the best and most affordable college.” At the end of the day most decisions are about the best results within a given range. If money is a rarer resource than prestige for you, then money will likely be the deciding factor. With lesser resource share per capita in the West and higher resource share per capita for the rest of the world, MEI versus DEI will eventually become a no brainer for most scenarios. That means meritocracy will increasing play a bigger role in society and in elite college admissions as it likely already had profound demographic effects.

Meritocracy means results matters not necessarily how you got there as long as it is legally compliant. It also means regardless of the hand you are dealt with, you are still expected to win. Sure advanced analytics and trends still matters, however, in a fast pace environment, potential can quickly be squandered if opportunities are not ceased by those who have the skills and background to exploit such opportunities that ultimately produce desirable yet verifiable results. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.

Here is what I wrote previously on this and similar topics:

“There are around 250 million students enrolled in colleges each year, guess how many attend the top 10 global? Where do the most prestigious and high paying companies in the world recruit many of their top talents from? Wait, why are you telling me all of this when I won’t ever get into any of these schools? That may be very true. The top ten-ers are people who likely and mostly concentrated in private schools in a certain geographical area, work in certain industries and live in a few highly concentrated cities. The chances of someone without that kind of credentials breaking into that circle without “extraordinary talent(s)” are slim to none, even so, they may never truly be accepted as equals. What are you trying to say? It may be much easier to convince someone to give you a chance when you excel at something and being quite good at it even potentially in lower tier competitions. Ever watched March Madness aka the NCAA D1 basketball annual championship tournament? How many NAIA schools played in it in 2026? Probably none. How many former NAIA schools played in it? Many. Why? Because those who are driven typically do the best they can at every level, get seen, get chances at higher levels of competition and may continue the cycle of success. This is how many sports leagues work in terms of promotion of teams and players from lower leagues. Can a NAIA team occasionally defeat an NBA team? Probably not. Can a historically elite NCAA D1 team occasionally defeat an NBA team? Probably. Why? Because most NAIA will never attract NBA ready level talents and some historically elite D1 teams have numerous NBA level talents. 

Personally, I would go to the college that is most suitable for my situation while also aiming to attend the most prestigious university. Yes, not all colleges offer free tuition, however, I think in the long run the best overall universities will be near the best at whatever they do regardless of current specialty rankings. Use your potential direness as motivation to outcompete others and eventually you will get a metaphorical “major title shot” too. When you are good, “teams” would want to “trade” for you, in this case get a transfer, get dual degrees, a second bachelor’s degree or graduate degree(s) from the best universities you can get into. With momentum there will be metaphorical endorsement deals like an internship or a job at a Fortune 500 or better that may snowball into getting into top 10 global universities for graduate programs. I personally prefer getting a 3.7 GPA with a few presidencies at various major student organizations, prestigious internships/jobs and engaged in entrepreneurship while in school versus gettting a marginally better GPA of 3.8-4.0. Remember most likely the people who are doing the hiring may most likely subliminally be jealous/envious of you hence will try to cast you as one dimensional or ask you some dumb, irrelevant &€£% about it. Remember Time Machine currently doesn’t exist and traveling back in time will likely be harder than traveling forward in time. Not getting a high GPA while still in school may not be the best scenario from a momentum standpoint and your chance of getting a high GPA later on will likely be stifled due to historical and resource constrained reasons including decrease in motivation, energy and stamina.

You may not have to be the best at everything, you may establish your own path as an intersectional talent. Preexisting path are set up by someone else with their own odor, you don’t necessarily have to walk on the same line. Walking on a parallel line may still allow you to chart an easier path while still being unique enough until you can chart your own path completely. I have never in all my years working in a large number of industries for Fortune 100 companies in major cities across the globe heard of anyone including interviewers, employers, recruiters or anyone else ever say why did you put a 3.7 or similar GPA on your resume regardless how many years someone has been out of school for. When you graduated from a top 10 global, interviewers almost never ask you about it due to internal human nature issues. I typically do not consider any prospective organizations that can’t afford my services at premium or make jealous or envious subtle comments. These employers usually may not attract enough high calibers like me to truly succeed, hiring me is a privilege not every organization will get. Paying me is only step one, I need development opportunities and opportunities to be a champion. I’m not going to get stuck at some small market team without a championship contender lineup metaphorically speaking. 

Any employer that treat people like me reasonably or even well at the organizational level, they typically do find more success based on my observations. If I were to ponder to make any type of investment in anything, I would view their starting executive lineup metaphorically speaking, submit my resume and observe from there. Not everyone in the organization has to have my background, they just need to treat the ones who does with the kind of respect they deserve. The funny thing is even though your high GPA, your degree from a top 10 global university, your various presidencies in major student organization or your industry top license never come up much during a job interview or daily corporate interaction processes, people for some reason remember your background every time there is some type of important event like a new promotional opportunity, a major project etc.”

Here is my list:

1. Pikachu
2. Squirtle
3. Charmander
4. Bulbasaur
5. Wartortle
6. Charmeleon
7. Ivysaur
8. Gastly
9. Haunter
10. Your pick

I will post these picks in details in future posts. You probably wonder why for number 10 I put “your pick.” The reality is I believe it’s hard to go wrong in picking a regular non-holographic card from this set that interest you. I will discuss more on this topic in a future post.

I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

Below is my previous post on this topic:

“Let’s make a few things clear. Yes, Japanese Pokemon cards likely came out a few years before the English versions, however, the English versions were likely the most important releases for the franchise. The 1st Edition Base Set, Shadowless and the Base Set Unlimited were all released in 1999 with various supposed print run duration. I consider all three the rookie cards of the original Pokemon. I also believe the print run size for all three releases in modern print run terms relatively small. I also believe the current premium on the 1st Edition and Shadowless Base Set prints are egregiously overvalued compared to the Base Set. I equate 1st Edition Base Set to the Bowman 1st set in baseball cards were probably only. select group of people bought and collected these hence worth they are worth a bit more in certain circles. The Shadowless is like a Bowman 1st inexpensive insert subset that’s likely not going to be worth as much as a regular Bowman 1st card of the same player in the long-run. The Base Set is like the regular rookie cards that many people purchased. 

English version of Pokemon cards were a kind of a novelty at the time of first release, the end-collectors of these cards were not adults and the cards themselves were meant to be played. No one probably thought the cards would be worth this much like it is now. The retention rate of these cards were likely extremely low for the Base Set Unlimited. The conditions on the retained cards likely were mostly in the lightly to moderately played conditions. I believe the secondary market was likely much stronger for 1st Edition Base Set and hence they were retained at a much higher rate and likely maintained in much better conditions on average. Despite the likely smaller print run, a very significant graded population for 1st Edition Base Set and Shadowless cards exist. Even if we presume the seemingly plausible rumor that 1st Edition Base Set was only printed for three days, I believe the 1st Edition Base Set to Base Set Unlimited print size ratio may be somewhere around 1:20. The difference is that I believe the 1st Edition Base Set were recognized for its potentials  at the time of release by those who bought them during release or shortly after release on the secondary markets therefore those sets were on average in much better conditions.

There likely was a much higher likelihood of these boxes being kept sealed versus Base Set Unlimited. While I still believe 1st Edition Base Set is much more rare, I believe the retention rate was significantly lower for the Base Set Unlimited Set and cards. Hence I believe the around 15X valuation of a 1st Edition versus an Unlimited Base Set may not be justified from a rarity standpoint. My guesstimate would be a 7.5X valuation is probably more reasonable at this time. I also believe in another 40 years or so, the valuation ratio will come down to around 2.5 to 4X. I believe people are opening the Base Set Unlimited boxes and packs at a much higher clip as it is more affordable to do so versus the 1st Edition Base Set. As many of the collectors today are not professional investors, many fail to grasp the premium some people are willing to pay to own an early set of something. Because all three of the above-mentioned sets came out in the same year with only likely superficial, non-core artwork or substantive playing differences and likely were designed by the same people using the same machines and sold in the same channels, I think in the long-run people will see this a multiplier issue rather than a classification issue. 

The multiplier issue will likely be mostly resolved by estimating supply and demand. What most people don’t realize yet is the original sets will continue to benefit from all future releases as they were the one and only originals. One of the frequently asked question in almost anything is the history of something. Which one do you think will get talked about more, the first few releases or the 72 release out of 100 plus releases? I believe Pokemon will likely have over 1,000 English set releases in the future and probably tens of thousands of sets releases when you count all languages. I believe there are over 2 billion Pokemon fans around the world approximately 30% of the world population. Pokémon’s ever increasing cross promotions allow it to add new fan bases and along with its various mediums including Pokemon Go, Anime, Cards, Toys, Tournaments and more, I believe the pipeline will continue to grow.

I think when cards related alternative assets become more mainstream with a large amount of mainstream investors investing into the field, more rational and less sentiments will be used in valuation. Aesthetic appeal of a card may be important, but how much more important is it over the fundamental economics? I believe one of the biggest arbitrage opportunities right now in investing in Pokemon cards is the concept of rookie cards. Many people in this space do not necessarily understand why that is important from a time value of money standpoint. Many collectors in this space are more on the nostalgic, artwork eye appeal and playability. In reality, a large population of the high-end investors or collectors do not play in any Pokemon tournaments nor even care about how it is being played. The divide between pure collectors/investors, the Anime watchers and the game players be it in electronic or physical card game format are huge. The cards are based on the games not the anime hence you almost never see Ash in any of the vintage cards except perhaps promos. I don’t mean to be condescending or anything. You may feel the same way that I feel if you were in almost everything in the very beginning. In terms of the cards hobby, I believe one’s perspective may change if one witness parents’ basement dwellers turn into nouveaux riches overnight with certain attributes akin to most lottery winners.”

Let’s make a few things clear. Yes, Japanese Pokemon cards likely came out a few years before the English versions, however, the English versions were likely the most important releases for the franchise. The 1st Edition Base Set, Shadowless and the Base Set Unlimited were all released in 1999 with various supposed print run duration. I consider all three the rookie cards of the original Pokemon. I also believe the print run size for all three releases in modern print run terms relatively small. I also believe the current premium on the 1st Edition and Shadowless Base Set prints are egregiously overvalued compared to the Base Set. I equate 1st Edition Base Set to the Bowman 1st set in baseball cards were probably only. select group of people bought and collected these hence worth they are worth a bit more in certain circles. The Shadowless is like a Bowman 1st inexpensive insert subset that’s likely not going to be worth as much as a regular Bowman 1st card of the same player in the long-run. The Base Set is like the regular rookie cards that many people purchased. 

English version of Pokemon cards were a kind of a novelty at the time of first release, the end-collectors of these cards were not adults and the cards themselves were meant to be played. No one probably thought the cards would be worth this much like it is now. The retention rate of these cards were likely extremely low for the Base Set Unlimited. The conditions on the retained cards likely were mostly in the lightly to moderately played conditions. I believe the secondary market was likely much stronger for 1st Edition Base Set and hence they were retained at a much higher rate and likely maintained in much better conditions on average. Despite the likely smaller print run, a very significant graded population for 1st Edition Base Set and Shadowless cards exist. Even if we presume the seemingly plausible rumor that 1st Edition Base Set was only printed for three days, I believe the 1st Edition Base Set to Base Set Unlimited print size ratio may be somewhere around 1:20. The difference is that I believe the 1st Edition Base Set were recognized for its potentials  at the time of release by those who bought them during release or shortly after release on the secondary markets therefore those sets were on average in much better conditions. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

Let’s talk about my 1999 Pokemon Base Set collection.

There likely was a much higher likelihood of these boxes being kept sealed versus Base Set Unlimited. While I still believe 1st Edition Base Set is much more rare, I believe the retention rate was significantly lower for the Base Set Unlimited Set and cards. Hence I believe the around 15X valuation of a 1st Edition versus an Unlimited Base Set may not be justified from a rarity standpoint. My guesstimate would be a 7.5X valuation is probably more reasonable at this time. I also believe in another 40 years or so, the valuation ratio will come down to around 2.5 to 4X. I believe people are opening the Base Set Unlimited boxes and packs at a much higher clip as it is more affordable to do so versus the 1st Edition Base Set. As many of the collectors today are not professional investors, many fail to grasp the premium some people are willing to pay to own an early set of something. Because all three of the above-mentioned sets came out in the same year with only likely superficial, non-core artwork or substantive playing differences and likely were designed by the same people using the same machines and sold in the same channels, I think in the long-run people will see this a multiplier issue rather than a classification issue. 

The multiplier issue will likely be mostly resolved by estimating supply and demand. What most people don’t realize yet is the original sets will continue to benefit from all future releases as they were the one and only originals. One of the frequently asked question in almost anything is the history of something. Which one do you think will get talked about more, the first few releases or the 72 release out of 100 plus releases? I believe Pokemon will likely have over 1,000 English set releases in the future and probably tens of thousands of sets releases when you count all languages. I believe there are over 2 billion Pokemon fans around the world approximately 30% of the world population. Pokémon’s ever increasing cross promotions allow it to add new fan bases and along with its various mediums including Pokemon Go, Anime, Cards, Toys, Tournaments and more, I believe the pipeline will continue to grow.

I think when cards related alternative assets become more mainstream with a large amount of mainstream investors investing into the field, more rational and less sentiments will be used in valuation. Aesthetic appeal of a card may be important, but how much more important is it over the fundamental economics? I believe one of the biggest arbitrage opportunities right now in investing in Pokemon cards is the concept of rookie cards. Many people in this space do not necessarily understand why that is important from a time value of money standpoint. Many collectors in this space are more on the nostalgic, artwork eye appeal and playability. In reality, a large population of the high-end investors or collectors do not play in any Pokemon tournaments nor even care about how it is being played. The divide between pure collectors/investors, the Anime watchers and the game players be it in electronic or physical card game format are huge. The cards are based on the games not the anime hence you almost never see Ash in any of the vintage cards except perhaps promos. I don’t mean to be condescending or anything. You may feel the same way that I feel if you were in almost everything in the very beginning. In terms of the cards hobby, I believe one’s perspective may change if one witness parents’ basement dwellers turn into nouveaux riches overnight with certain attributes akin to most lottery winners. 

My conclusion is, in terms of legacy, Lebron is currently about 65% that of Jordan’s in the eyes of the general public. Lebron will likely have a over 50% probability of surpassing Jordan as the GOAT if he achieves some of the following: play with both of his two sons in the NBA, reach 50,000 points, tie with Vince Carter as the only two NBA players to play in four different decades, win a championship with his two sons, own an NBA team, be more involved in media after he retires and coach in the NBA. Lebron breaking almost single major NBA career individual record, first NBA player to play with his son in the NBA and becoming the first active player to be the first NBA billionaire are already GOATesque achievements. Lebron will likely not be in Jordan’s shadows as he never played in the same error as Jordan. Jordan was not particularly political, did not appear to take a political stand on many things, retired multiple times and played on a Wizards for two seasons that did not make the playoffs during that period of time. Yes, Jordan had a high career average, many sensational highlights, legendary storylines, two more championships than Lebron winning three consecutive championships two times, amazing athleticism, NASCAR involvement, the shoes, Dream Team etc. 

In my opinion, out of the major professional sports, Jordan is the weakest of the major sports GOATs due to some of the decisions he may have made. Those decisions may seem legendary at first due to the emotional piece, however, in the long-run as the NBA become a century old league and beyond, Jordan’s legacy may be easily surpassed by other greats, I believe Lebron is in the best position to become the new GOAT. Lebron’s social impacts in the age of social media is one of a kind. Lebron in my opinion is a model parent. Lebron is also one of the most transparent people in the world due to his career is fully covered by the social media era. You will never be able to realistically compare Lebron and Jordan’s legacy against each other because they did not play in the same era. Lebron played in the era of wide spread internet global usage, social media, cryptocurrency, electrification, global warming, international players dominating the games, big men and small-ball and now the AI whiling playing on a huge global stage with geopolitical impacts. I dare to say Lebron is literally a combination of Babe Ruth as a sports pioneer, Jackie Robinson as a social justice trailblazer and Hank Aaron for withstanding record breaking pressures in baseball terms. Basketball as a sport did not become the success it is now until a couple of decades ago even in America nevermind internationally. Many of the legendary storylines sometimes may feel artificially forced due to economic necessity rather than genuine reality.

In 20 years or so, I believe Lebron’s image may likely be rehabilitated in the eyes of his naysayers when the world becomes a much more polarizing and realpolitik place. When people in the West realize just how evil and cruel certain unnamed places can be and wakes up to actively revolve its internal and external issues. Likely by keeping parts of neoliberalism at bay by first heal itself and mitigate the affects from some of its ills such as the various groups of potential leeches that sucks its blood, demotivates societal progress, spreading ideological viruses/potentially non-ideological viruses and bringing social upheaval by working with external nemeses through taking advantage of its magnanimity and guilt. The reality is America is the most powerful country in the history of the universe. It appears to be ideologically emasculated by various non-natural evolutionary behavior contrary to the natural evolutionary process. American likely can single-handedly attract almost any talent and affect changes for a reason. It likely maintain its way of life and values regardless of what others do. However, it may need to standup for itself powerfully against all enemies domestic and abroad in order to allow its people to live the greatest and most balanced lives ever. If you ever lived in other countries besides America, you probably know what I am talking about. If corporation have performance plans that evaluate the contributions of its employees, why shouldn’t society. From a MEI versus DEI standpoint, I believe society may no longer have the ample resources it use to have in order to subsidize below average-contribution providers. Yes, there may need to be social safety nets and exceptions to be made for extraordinary circumstances. Generosity frequently require economic resources. Lebron likely should be an inspiration for many groups of people to possibly emulate from a societal contribution standpoint. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

Here is what I wrote previously on this and similar topics:

“Everyday that Bronny and Lebron play NBA basketball, they may be breaking records. Many of these records will likely be long standing records that will not be broken for ages if they are ever broken at all. That’s legendary and folklore level tales on its own. I now have a very sizable Bronny James cards collection including many chase cards. To me, the Lebron and Bronny James combination are not just historical sports figures but role models who inspire groups of people and impact their lives for the better that ultimately benefit the entire society. For that, regardless of the potential polarization of opinions regarding these two athletes, I believe history will see them playing together in the NBA as a watershed moment that ultimately integrated the ethos for entire groups and entire generation off people into the greater liberal order of Western societies. For that, I believe Lebron and Bronny James should be at least nominated for a Nobel Prize for their endeavors. In sports cards history, there are a number of cards of current non-GOAT and non-hall of fame/non-high probability hall of fame trajectory players that have certain value. Examples include certain Bo Jackson, Mark Jackson, Billy Ripken and Ja Morant cards and numerous other cards that were likely not on most collectors’ radar when those cards first came out.

I believe one of Lebron’s many admirable traits as a leader is that my perception of him voicing his opinions loudly and proudly despite what others think about them. I actually do not agree with some of his opinions, however, when I compare him against the supposed “GOAT” who rarely voice opinions in certain genre, I respect Lebron even more. Yes, likely no one is perfect in the eyes of everyone. I think some of the things Lebron does are quite admirable despite of his wealth and fame which is directly contrary to the potential actions of certain potential “GOAT.” One fact that will low key win Lebron’s GOAT status in the future is the fact that there was no one who is overall even close to Lebron’s level that played in the NBA during Lebron’s tenure in the NBA. Lebron was literally the greatest overall basketball player for 20 plus years. During that 20 years, the world probably changed faster than any period in the history of humanity. Lebron may have had to deal with more scrutiny due to prevalence of social media yet I think for the most part, Lebron handled it quite well without having three retirements and whatever possible else. 

I think when people’s opinions become more rational and nuanced on Lebron, Lebron’s reputation will be greatly rehabilitated among his biggest critics after his retirement. Remember many definitions of concepts are subjective within a reasonable range/level. Lebron is GOATesque at the very least. This makes him GOATable and have a realistic opportunity to become the GOAT. I think Lebron will likely play another three to five years. That means Lebron may play in the NBA for nearly three decades. That means at least three generations of people with strong disposable wealth at some point in the next 80 years will have watched him play and may have the intend to transacting his cards. That is likely a longer time period than most S&P 500 companies on average will be in existence regardless of era. 

Why don’t I just invest in Lebron’s cards instead of talking about Bronny’s cards? Lebron’s rookie cards were one of those rookie cards I considered “overhyped” so I completely skipped on. Lebron had been in the league for over two decades, during that time the S&P 500 went through the roof at the very least 10X when all dividends are reinvested, yet most of Lebron’s rookie cards’ appreciation percentage have not even come close to S&P 500’s appreciation in the same period even when S&P 500 stocks on average are significantly more liquid and the index is much better diversified than buying a single class of sports cards. That doesn’t mean I don’t think Lebron is potentially GOATable in the future. I am investing in Bronny James cards as a derivative of their combined future NBA performances and their legac(ies).  

It is my hope that organizations that are engaged in social cohesion programs properly promote this event for the prosperity of the American society that may trickle down its benefits as a byproduct to the rest of the Western world and to others in this world who may deserve such godsend from the benevolence of American kindness. At the end of the day, my assets won’t appreciate as much without the nurture from a stable and free society. As a globetrotter who have seen the world in its many faces, I am immensely grateful for being associated with the greatest country in the history of all known universes and anything that resembles a universe regardless of time and space.”

Depending on the pack art, a “heavy pack” (high likelihood of containing a holographic card) of 1999 Pokemon Base Set is about $2000 USD while a “light pack” (low likelihood of containing a holographic card) of 1999 Pokemon Base Set is about a few hundred USD. Condition is obviously extremely important in card value which sealed packs may have a high likelihood of being in near mint condition (especially given Pokemon cards have round corners not square corners). The interesting part is many WOTC era Base Set non-holographic cards that are rare, uncommon and common cards can be bought for less than a US dollar in reputable locales. Frequently these can be had for about two for a dollar. Many of these cards are in near mint (NM) or lightly played (LP) conditions. I am talking about the likes of Pikachu, Charmander, Squirtle, Bulbasaur, Chameleon, Ivysaur, Haunter, Gastly, rare trainer and similar cards from other WOTC sets including Gym Heroes, Gym Challenge, the Neo series and e-series. 

The reality is it will take on average around 48 packs to get a Base Set English version holographic Charizard, since around 1 in every 3 packs in that set contains a holographic card, that’s about 16 heavy packs and 32 light packs. Even at the low estimate of 50,000 worth of packs on average to pull a Base Set Charizard, one may most likely barely break-even on expected average value even if one is able to pull a card that is graded as a “10” by a certain popular grading service, which is about a less than 1% population of all graded versions of that particular card from the said popular grading service. Minus all the transaction fees with grading and other potential costs, cash flow issues, opportunity cost and how long and how difficult it might take to sell, there may not be that many people with that much cash who are willing to buy that many packs or a high value Charizard card. The other potentially concerning factor is many people probably don’t have the knowledge, the experience and the dedication to keep cards/sealed products in temperature controlled environments in the long run. These cards likely weren’t meant to be long-term investment grade assets when they were first created. Given the fractional system for high-end cards/sealed products are not necessarily very mature and liquid, putting that much resources into cards investing may not be the most sound financial decision from a cash flow management standpoint.

As for the “heavy packs”…..I will not comment further on this at this time except to say I may have discussed how technology is changing this industry in my previous post(s). Frankly, even if one pulls the best regular cards from a light pack Base Set, that card at ungraded condition is probably around 20 USD at near mint. All this is to say the economics even from a gambler’s mentality standpoint probably does not make sense since what can be pulled from a light pack can probably be purchased as single cards at much less than the cost of the sealed pack. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

Here is what I wrote previously on this and similar topics:

At the time when Pokemon 1st Edition English version 36-pack Booster Boxes first came out in 1999, they were retailing approximately $150 a box. The secondary market of a 1st Edition English version Charizard card, the best card in the set, was approximately $50 dollars on the secondary market. That means for the cost of the box, one could buy three of the Charizard cards at the time of first release for the price of the booster box. The box now cost about $500,000 and it takes approximately 48 packs to pull that Charizard card from those booster boxes meaning it will on average take more than one box to pull the best card hence pulling the Charizard is not even certain for such a high price box now. Less than 1% of all graded versions of that card by a certain popular grading company graded a “10.” A graded “10” sells for around $800,000 and a “9” is about $100,000. All posted contents are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. 

If I were a new card collector and knowing what I know now, I would probably make Pikachu cards the staple of my collection. I would probably also buy some other cards that will make up a much smaller percentage of my collection to better diversify my alternative assets investment portfolio. I personally believe Pikachu cards have a higher upside than many other cards. When the Pikachu English version Base Set cards first came out it was probably worth a penny per card for many collectors at the time if anyone even bothered buying it as a single since they were common, non-holographic cards and much easier to pull than certain holographic cards. At about $4+ USD in raw, ungraded card format currently, the same card has increased around 40,000%. Charizard cards in the English version Base Set were rare, holographic cards. Approximately 1 in 3 English Base Set packs contained a holographic card and approximately every 40+ packs had a Charizard card. At the time those packs were selling at around $3.50 USD a pack. Base Set Charizard English cards at the time when they first came out were commanding around $50+ USD on the secondary markets. They are currently around $400 USD. Let’s just say it’s about a 700% increase which sounds impressive. However, when you consider that took 20+ years to get there and S&P 500 index grew by about 750% in the same period when its component stocks are much more liquid, you may think differently. 

What about graded versions of these that got a “10” score? For simplicity sake, let’s just say the market value of an English version Base Set Pikachu cards in that graded condition is about $1,000 USD and the Charizard is about $30,000 USD. In that case, the Pikachu card is around 100,000% increase and the Charizard card is about a 58,000% increase. When you look even deeper, you may realize less than 1% of the graded Charizard English version Base Set card submitted to a certain popular card grading company may actually get a “10” score. The difference in value between a lower score of “9” and a “10” can be very significant for that card. The English version Base Set Pikachu card may have a much higher percentage of a “10” score under likely similar circumstances as described above. The above also does not account for how much more liquid the Pikachu versus the Charizard card per the above is due to price differences. The cost difference to grade a 50,000+ USD card versus a $1,000+ USD card can also be incredibly large. The print run difference between 1st edition base set and base set may or may not be as large as some people think. In summation, I believe Pikachu cards at least some of its WOTC cards may carry a much higher “time value premium”, even when they are risk/liquid adjusted, than cards of most other Pokemon.

To better understand why Pokemon cards have high potentials, you just have to look at the coin and banknotes and the sports cards markets, more specifically, baseball cards market. If you ever attended a coin and banknotes show, scanned the room for who most of the attendees attending these shows are, you will probably understand what I am talking about. This is even more pronounced before the pandemic. It all make sense since these types of investments require high levels of disposal income, extensive knowledge about the subject matter, in the field experience and strategic patience to buy cards for often large sums of money, hold them for years then sell these assets when they want to. With that, they can dictate which attributes in these assets are the most desirable traits such as a specific originating locale or era and those who want to make money from the market will simply have to tailor to these people’s needs. 

The average age of Pokemon card collectors are still quite young, completely reasonable given the age of the franchise and its initial likely target audience’s ages. Demographic groups of stakeholders matters in almost everything including in investing. Yes, one Pokemon card owned by a very famous person with a large social media presence did break sales record(s) recently, however, if you read articles about the highest valued cards ever sold, you probably already know most of these are sports cards. Like generational wealth, baseball cards are frequently passed down from generation to generation. I believe one of the biggest issues with sports cards is its volatility, more so with cards of currently active athletes than retired athletes. The problem is athletes are human-beings who live in real life unlike Pokemon characters. That means will most likely create volatility in card is one of the greatest-of-all-times (GOAT or at the very minimum a once in a generation talent and/or there is something special about the card itself that was later discovered that had nothing to do with the behaviors of the athlete. As mentioned earlier, I prefer to invest in lower valued versions of alternative assets that have all the right attributes because it allows me to free up cash by diversifying my risk into numerous smaller investments while keeping my portfolio liquid at the same time aiming for a higher expected value. 

At the end of the day, rational people will benchmark assets one way or another. Metrics like multipliers and ratios will likely be employed. If I am significantly above average in identifying value than others and presuming multipliers are relatively within ballpark, why would I want to tie up that much cash in one single high value asset that will take time to sell when I can spread the risk among my portfolio and possibly get a higher premium due to the card’s lower cost of acquisition and higher liquidity. For purchases on cards of athletes I invest in, I tend to stick to rookie cards, cards in good condition because of the lower price differential on lower valued cards at the time of acquisition, numbered cards, autographed cards, patch cards, and/or all of the above like numbered RPA cards. As long as the prices are properly adjusted, I am typically okay with differences among similar cards such as on card vs sticker autographs and professional vs. amateur level uniforms. After all, these differences do not change the core essence of the investment’s attributes, only its desirability of the baseline value which will affect the multiplier. All of the abovementioned attributes make a card more rare and scarce provided you have reasonable trust in the issuing entity and the industry and the world have not fundamentally changed at the macro level.

Wait, investing in sports cards sounds like a lot of work, why don’t I just stick with Pokemon cards since they are way more stable and also grows pretty fast! There is a reason why investors prefer to diversify their portfolios. Sports cards have higher alphas but also have higher betas, translation, higher risk and higher returns. With Pokemon cards, you mostly only have to worry about systemic or market risk once you come up with a prudent collecting strategy. In some sense, the cards of desirable Pokemon characters like Pikachu and Charizard, mostly introduced in the mid to late 1990s and the early 2000 during the Wizards of the Coast era are kind of fungible in that you mostly can’t go wrong buying them because the storylines are already fundamentally set and its future storyline is not too difficult to predict ballpark wise. Hence regardless of the cards of the sets you buy for some of these Pokemon characters, the baseline values will likely be perceived as the same by bellwether investors, attribute differences like artworks are just multipliers to the equation. 

With sports cards, because there are millions of athletes in all different kinds of sports who played in different eras, in different leagues and who played with different levels of completion, investing in these is more like buying a house with each having distinct characteristics like its location, neighborhood median income level, local economy etc and all these things constant evolve over time.  This is precisely why English Pokemon holographic cards, especially the vintage ones cost more. Not just because of the language or potential market size difference, but mostly due to pull rate of holographic cards where the Japanese vintage packs essentially guaranteed one holo card per pack whereas the English version packs did not. Hence because the GOAT of a sport is literally just one person or a handful of people at the most, a title that take frequently decades of work to achieve and is often only publicly recognized and granted with consensus years later. 

One would argue identifying a potential GOAT who likely had to be benchmarked against hundreds of thousands of contemporaries and predecessors in the few popular sports that actually have a large sports cards collecting fan base, the premium for the massive amount of effort and resources that are poured into this search is akin to finding a specific atom with just the right amount of electrons, protons and neutrons in whatever its required final form be it ionization, fusion or whatever else in a forest in the dark racing against time and with a copious amount of other hunters now that they smelled the money from  a potentially $100 billion dollar future industry,  have to be huge for all this expenditure to be worth it. Most people like winners and matters with certain desirable attributes, some people are actually willing to pay for these features. 

The animation and TCG aspect of the Pokemon franchise will likely prevent it from issuing true rookie cards, numbered cards, memorabilia cards including autographed cards any time soon, things that are highly valued in sports cards collecting. One thing that could be a Pokemon card trend in the future is collecting the cards of a Pokemon’s first introduction or appearance in the TCG. This concept is currently not valued in the Pokemon TCG world with the first edition labels on certain Wizards of the Coast sets being the closest concept. This concept could take off some time in the future, however, given most of the super popular Pokemon’s were introduced during the WOTC era and they had 1st edition labels back then, the ceiling on this concept taking off is probably mild at best. Yes, timing is more important in sports cards investing and it requires up to date information and data to make the most optimal decisions, kind of like what a short term investor or a day trader need to do to be successful in their craft. 

Determining what cards to invest in is a complicated process involving doing a ton of research and analysis on on the athletes featured on the cards themselves including their current and future on the field performance and off the field marketability as celebrities. My goal is to buy future GOATs cards before they evolve into their final form of greatness. This means I need to know what are the important aspects of their roles as professionals, what their personal career and life goals are and do they have what it takes to get there. Winning is not really about luck or having some type of super natural abilities, while both will probably help immensely, for the common person it basically comes down to do you understand the groups who will be in some way transacting with these assets. It’s mostly about understanding the group think strategy dictated in various ways by the opinion leader(s) now and potential ones in the future in a timely and relevant manner frequently requires predicting or forecasting. To move the market, pure independent and critical thinking alone will not work. What will work is movement by the masses based on some type of a robustly or even widely believed plausible built logic that at least initially makes sense and the concepts can be refined in the future if necessary, and a call for action from the bellweathers will lead to action. There is a reason why the term bellwether is frequently referred to in investing, a sheep that is both empowered and emasculated, an interesting dichotomy that makes you wonder if things really appear as it seems.”

The short answer, I find singles to be a more viable investment than sealed products be it boxes or packs. Some people buy sealed products because of the supply and demand logic of a sealed opened is one sealed less. That may very well be true. However, for the average person, he or she will likely not benefit much from this given most cards companies rarely disclose their true print runs. Even if they do somewhat, besides estimating print runs and reviewing graded cards population published by popular grading service(s), it will be difficult to know exactly how much more supplies are available, unlike the with M1 to M4 reporting of the money supply. 

Remember, when cards products are first released, there were likely plenty of supply and no one for sure knew how well these things will do in the long run. If people already know how well something will do with 100% certainty, the profit margins will likely be squeezed because there will be less uncertainty hence less risk premium demanded. Without going too deep into the business and financial side of things, consider this. At the time when Pokemon 1st Edition English version 36-pack Booster Boxes first came out in 1999, they were retailing approximately $150 a box. The secondary market of a 1st Edition English version Charizard card, the best card in the set, was approximately $50 dollars on the secondary market. That means for the cost of the box, one could buy three of the Charizard cards at the time of first release for the price of the booster box. The box now cost about $500,000 and it takes approximately 48 packs to pull that Charizard card from those booster boxes meaning it will on average take more than one box to pull the best card hence pulling the Charizard is not even certain for such a high price box now. Less than 1% of all graded versions of that card by a certain popular grading company graded a “10.” A graded “10” sells for around $800,000 and a “9” is about $100,000. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

Sealed boxes or packs versus singles Pokemon and sports cards investing?

I highly doubt in 1999 many people viewed cards as mainstream investment vehicles alternative assets or not. The market size for these things at the time versus now, most people’s attitudes toward them as investment vehicles and the possible social stigma of treating them as investment vehicles likely made these things being mainstream investment vehicles impossible back in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Card grading has about a 40+ year history, however, it didn’t become all that popular until the last 10 years or so. One huge change that occurred in this market was using market “comps” versus relying on price guide(s) price guidances, this alone likely created a true market driven pricing system. I still use the price guides as a checklist reference guide to see what cards are in a given cards product. The other revolution in the industry is technology. Now it appears machines similar to X-rays can be utilized affordably by certain groups of people to see what are inside of a pack or box. AI whether it’s agentic, generative or whatever else via machine learning and training also appears to be changing the game. Cards can now be scanned by an app using a smart phone’s camera that will instantly give users access to a database or a web aggregator of some sort that allow the cards to be identified, graded, compared, listed online instantaneously among likely many other available features.

Regardless of the investment type whether sealed sports cards or Pokemon cards or something similar, it’s important to understand the cash flow issues, opportunity cost, time value of money, supply and demand, after purchase cost like storage and maintenance cost, selling costs and many other relevant factors that ultimately affect returns on such potential investments. Specifically to sealed cards products, it is important to understand what attracts people to buy certain sealed products in the first place at various stages including prerelease, at release and post release. I believe some of the following questions are important to ask oneself when buying sealed products. Does a cards box have a high returns ceiling? What is the potential returns floor for the cards box? Have all the chase cards already been found? What are the graded cards population trends for the set as reported by a certain popular grading company? Are the rookie cards and/or chase cards in the box still desirable?

My biggest issue with sealed boxes is regarding control. If I am looking for whatever specific card and it only cost moderately more, the same or even less to buy the card as a single versus the aggregate expected cost to find it in its sealed form(s), isn’t that basically trying to win the lottery or gambling? Some major countries have regulations and laws that govern the disclosure of cards pulling odds on card sealed products such as boxes and/or packs. At the end of the day, if everything I do is based on luck and it works out for me the majority of the time, I would probably not even bother thinking at all. Then again, if that’s how things work across the board, there likely won’t be any profits due to lack of scarcity/rarity for anyone because prices will likely be depressed or if it’s still so high, inflation may probably takes place. Either way, no one is necessarily possibly be better off.

If Charizard is power then Pikachu may be grit. If Charizard cards command a premium then Pikachu cards likely represent higher CAGR within a given price range. There are likely an infinite number of ways to collect, most people collect whatever they like. Fundamentally speaking, I am the exact same way. The difference is that I take a competitive spin to investing because I enjoy winning. Winning takes on many forms and shapes. Some victories may seem losses at first and other victories may be Pyrrhic in nature. You likely can’t win on every transaction but you probably don’t have to secure victory in every battle to win a war. One thing is for sure is you likely won’t win anything if you are not properly prepared for winning even when the opportunity presents itself. I am not trying to split hairs by saying investing in Charizard or Pikachu cards are better than the other. Each types of cards clearly could be winners no matter how you view the situation. I am talking about compatibility to my alternative investing strateg(ies). I am not trying to be funny or anything, but I think Pikachu is basically a mouse. When you think about all the prominent mice in the world, which I will not name due to “you probably guessed it” reason(s), you don’t always get a sense of overwhelming raw, menacing power. If a sports team name their team after a type of mice, I am not sure what the fans will think. 

From a card investing standpoint, regular Pikachu cards typically are common cards. After the original series from the WOTC Pokemon cards era ended, many subsequently produced official Pokemon cards of Pokemon introduced during the WOTC Pokemon cards era may have been downgraded from rare to uncommon and from uncommon perhaps to common. All that to say is as the Pokemon universe expanded or continues to expand, powerful Pokemon may continue to emerge hence some of the original Pokemon from the WOTC card era may become relatively less rare and powerful. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

Let’s talk about my Pikachu and Charizard cards collection.

I believe Pikachu has much higher appreciation growth potential in terms of return on investments than Charizard cards. Almost any holo Charizard cards probably are going to be some type of rare or promo whereas many Pikachu cards are mostly common and sometimes promos. The starting price for Charizard cards usually are much higher than that of Pikachu cards due to Charizard being a rarer and one of the most powerful Pokemon in the Pokemon universe. Pikachu, however, is much more accepted as being cute, approachable and inspirational. Pikachu merchandises seems to be literally everywhere and may frequently cross-promote with other intellectual properties. Pikachu to me is more than just an animation character, it is literally the biggest universal icon in the history of this world. In my opinion, Charizard is a cult favorite whereas Pikachu is universally beloved and recognized by almost everyone. In athletics terms, Pikachu may be comparable to the superstar guard most lay people have deemed as the GOAT, Charizard on the other hand appears to metaphorically resemble a dominant 7-foot center likely considered the best center of all-time. 

When you think about it, Pikachu is probably a double-digit, billion-dollar industry on its own likely representing a 100+ billion dollar brand yet Pikachu official Pokemon cards are likely only a small percentage of the entire value chain. What is interesting about this is most people would probably say the most collectible Pokemon product is probably Pokemon cards even though it appears Pokemon actually make significantly more money from non-Pokemon cards merchandises. Without stating all the boring details from a marketing and business standpoint regarding the above, I believe the lesson here is Pokemon cards have potentially significant growth opportunities as it is currently not even any where close to being the most significant part of the Pokemon products market size. Many modern common, non-holo/foil/promo/error Pikachu cards possibly can be bought for a few cents each in bulk versus around at least a dollar for the most common Charizard cards. I believe Pikachu is the Pokemon’s spiritual equivalent of the “Logoman” for the NBA or whatever equivalent of the “Logoman” in other major sports league. It is no wonder that some of the most prized Pokemon cards feature Pikachu and not of any other Pokemon. 

Pokemon and Pokemon cards of course are relatively new compared to some other brands/franchises and other classes. This may be why the price premium multiplier between newer more modern Pokemon cards and the older vintage WOTC era cards are not as significant as other types of certain types of vintage sports cards. I think the complete human history can not be fully told without the inclusion of the collectibles phenomenon therefore I view Pokemon cards as potential major human artifacts. The collectible cards industry may reach $100 billion dollars within a decade or two due to likely high CAGR which will be a major milestone in human history and have broad impacts on society. A likely large, critical mass  percentage level of the world’s population are already collecting cards. This trend may continue to grow at the current or a more rapid pace in the near future. When one Pikachu card can increase by $10+ million and more than double its worth in a matter of a few years, cards that may share certain attributes may also be positive affected, the rest are just multipliers. There may be many examples of this phenomenon happening in recent times, one of which is how the popularity of Gengar cards are affect its “downstream/evolutionary downstream lineage” Pokemon cards like Haunter and Gastly. 

If I were a new card collector and knowing what I know now, I would probably make Pikachu cards the staple of my collection. I would probably also buy some other cards that will make up a much smaller percentage of my collection to better diversify my alternative assets investment portfolio. I personally believe Pikachu cards have a higher upside than many other cards. When the Pikachu English version Base Set cards first came out it was probably worth a penny per card for many collectors at the time if anyone even bothered buying it as a single since they were common, non-holographic cards and much easier to pull than certain holographic cards. At about $4+ USD in raw, ungraded card format currently, the same card has increased around 40,000%. Charizard cards in the English version Base Set were rare, holographic cards. Approximately 1 in 3 English Base Set packs contained a holographic card and approximately every 40+ packs had a Charizard card. At the time those packs were selling at around $3.50 USD a pack. Base Set Charizard English cards at the time when they first came out were commanding around $50+ USD on the secondary markets. They are currently around $400 USD. Let’s just say it’s about a 700% increase which sounds impressive. However, when you consider that took 20+ years to get there and S&P 500 index grew by about 750% in the same period when its component stocks are much more liquid, you may think differently. 

What about graded versions of these that got a “10” score? For simplicity sake, let’s just say the market value of an English version Base Set Pikachu cards in that graded condition is about $1,000 USD and the Charizard is about $30,000 USD. In that case, the Pikachu card is around 100,000% increase and the Charizard card is about a 58,000% increase. When you look even deeper, you may realize less than 1% of the graded Charizard English version Base Set card submitted to a certain popular card grading company may actually get a “10” score. The difference in value between a lower score of “9” and a “10” can be very significant for that card. The English version Base Set Pikachu card may have a much higher percentage of a “10” score under likely similar circumstances as described above. The above also does not account for how much more liquid the Pikachu versus the Charizard card per the above is due to price differences. The cost difference to grade a 50,000+ USD card versus a $1,000+ USD card can also be incredibly large. The print run difference between 1st edition base set and base set may or may not be as large as some people think. In summation, I believe Pikachu cards at least some of its WOTC cards may carry a much higher “time value premium”, even when they are risk/liquid adjusted, than cards of most other Pokemon.

Parents of college-bound students, college-aged adults and their parents attempt to ask me this question all the time, few ever ask the right question(s) to get an in-depth answer from me. Most people just can’t swallow their pride when it comes to things like this. What they are actually trying to ask is “You are clearly far superior than me in living life. Would you please share your secrets to your life’s successes with me and I promise I will pay it forward so the history of the world will honor your legacy forever.” Not only am I not blushing when hearing this, I feel deserving of such compliments. Of course there are likely infinite numbers of ways to answer this question. I typically tailor my responses to the person who is asking the question in this case the end users are usually people who are at an important crossroad in their lives. The reality is, the people who need this type of help the most are precisely the people who will likely not succeed at a very high level. You see, there are around 50,000 universities in the world and approximately  4,000 of these are in the US. The aggregate average of the major ranking lists typically have mostly US universities on their global top 10 list. In my opinion, the top 10 global universities by consensus should all be American. 

I won’t dove into my issues with certain non-American centric major ranking lists and their “methodologies” here. To save us all some time, I will only say that generous funding, highest per capita income to largest nominal GDP ratio, growing economy, open society with innovation, strong capital markets, a large market for everything, a free business environment, respect for intellectual/private property rights and human rights and having the wherewithal to defended it all among other elements probably are prerequisites for fostering the best universities in the world. And yes, how can I forget the perfunctory and somewhat gratuitous “trade schools are great” line. Though I am pretty sure having tertiary education means I could probably earn certificates in many skilled trades if I wanted to by learning via watching videos and apprenticeships. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

Let’s talk about why achieving a relatively high college GPA may be important for career success.

There are around 250 million students enrolled in colleges each year, guess how many attend the top 10 global? Where do the most prestigious and high paying companies in the world recruit many of their top talents from? Wait, why are you telling me all of this when I won’t ever get into any of these schools? That may be very true. The top ten-ers are people who likely and mostly concentrated in private schools in a certain geographical area, work in certain industries and live in a few highly concentrated cities. The chances of someone without that kind of credentials breaking into that circle without “extraordinary talent(s)” are slim to none, even so, they may never truly be accepted as equals. What are you trying to say? It may be much easier to convince someone to give you a chance when you excel at something and being quite good at it even potentially in lower tier competitions. Ever watched March Madness aka the NCAA D1 basketball annual championship tournament? How many NAIA schools played in it in 2026? Probably none. How many former NAIA schools played in it? Many. Why? Because those who are driven typically do the best they can at every level, get seen, get chances at higher levels of competition and may continue the cycle of success. This is how many sports leagues work in terms of promotion of teams and players from lower leagues. Can a NAIA team occasionally defeat an NBA team? Probably not. Can a historically elite NCAA D1 team occasionally defeat an NBA team? Probably. Why? Because most NAIA will never attract NBA ready level talents and some historically elite D1 teams have numerous NBA level talents. 

Personally, I would go to the college that is most suitable for my situation while also aiming to attend the most prestigious university. Yes, not all colleges offer free tuition, however, I think in the long run the best overall universities will be near the best at whatever they do regardless of current specialty rankings. Use your potential direness as motivation to outcompete others and eventually you will get a metaphorical “major title shot” too. When you are good, “teams” would want to “trade” for you, in this case get a transfer, get dual degrees, a second bachelor’s degree or graduate degree(s) from the best universities you can get into. With momentum there will be metaphorical endorsement deals like an internship or a job at a Fortune 500 or better that may snowball into getting into top 10 global universities for graduate programs. I personally prefer getting a 3.7 GPA with a few presidencies at various major student organizations, prestigious internships/jobs and engaged in entrepreneurship while in school versus gettting a marginally better GPA of 3.8-4.0. Remember most likely the people who are doing the hiring may most likely subliminally be jealous/envious of you hence will try to cast you as one dimensional or ask you some dumb, irrelevant &€£% about it. Remember Time Machine currently doesn’t exist and traveling back in time will likely be harder than traveling forward in time. Not getting a high GPA while still in school may not be the best scenario from a momentum standpoint and your chance of getting a high GPA later on will likely be stifled due to historical and resource constrained reasons including decrease in motivation, energy and stamina.

You may not have to be the best at everything, you may establish your own path as an intersectional talent. Preexisting path are set up by someone else with their own odor, you don’t necessarily have to walk on the same line. Walking on a parallel line may still allow you to chart an easier path while still being unique enough until you can chart your own path completely. I have never in all my years working in a large number of industries for Fortune 100 companies in major cities across the globe heard of anyone including interviewers, employers, recruiters or anyone else ever say why did you put a 3.7 or similar GPA on your resume regardless how many years someone has been out of school for. When you graduated from a top 10 global, interviewers almost never ask you about it due to internal human nature issues. I typically do not consider any prospective organizations that can’t afford my services at premium or make jealous or envious subtle comments. These employers usually may not attract enough high calibers like me to truly succeed, hiring me is a privilege not every organization will get. Paying me is only step one, I need development opportunities and opportunities to be a champion. I’m not going to get stuck at some small market team without a championship contender lineup metaphorically speaking. 

Any employer that treat people like me reasonably or even well at the organizational level, they typically do find more success based on my observations. If I were to ponder to make any type of investment in anything, I would view their starting executive lineup metaphorically speaking, submit my resume and observe from there. Not everyone in the organization has to have my background, they just need to treat the ones who does with the kind of respect they deserve. The funny thing is even though your high GPA, your degree from a top 10 global university, your various presidencies in major student organization or your industry top license never come up much during a job interview or daily corporate interaction processes, people for some reason remember your background every time there is some type of important event like a new promotional opportunity, a major project etc.  

I will be honest, I personally don’t think Drake Baldwin, Nick Kurtz, James Wood or Dalton Rushing will become GOATesque nevermind GOAT. The reality is they are unfortunately playing in the same era as prime Ohtani, Judge and arguably the most talented era in MLB history. Baseball just became super exciting again with all the rule changes, global stars, competitive teams and various intriguing storylines. Baseball as a sport appears to be growing significantly globally. The World Baseball Classic becoming popular, baseball’s return to the Olympics and the fact that baseball is spreading from Asia bellwether pop culture centers like Japan, South Korea and Japan into Southeast Asia is a very important trend for the sport. Because baseball and cricket are very similar, there is a good chance it could get a piece of that 2.5 billion fan market.

All this to say is that because the much larger pie for all, I think rookie cards of these four players are good value. I tend to think baseball has the highest career longevity of all the sports for players who are good at what they do. It is not exceptionally uncommon to see baseball players in the MLB play to their mid 40s. However, the players who play to their mid 40s may likely are chasing something record wise. Many of these players start in the league in their very early 20s. Hence when I am buying rookie cards of new MLB players, I typically look for guys who make to the league early, play a premium position, has height and can either hit or pitching or both with power. Of course I look at their minor league stats as well to analyze their potentials. And yes, because my rookie cards pipeline strategy also entails maximizing upside risk and with almost insignificant downside risk when I can buy maybe a box of 4,000 of inderrated new player rookie cards for less than 100 dollars, I am able to also get rookie cards of Patrick Mahomes, Steph Curry and for sure Aaron Judge when they first came out. Of course, most of these cards won’t be worth the storage cost after a while within a given time range, hence every year I either donate those cards or give them away to friends. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

Let’s talk about my Drake Baldwin, Nick Kurtz, James Wood and Dalton Rushing  rookie sports cards to invest in for May 2026.

Why do I have a huge collection of these players’ rookie cards when there are so many other top players’ rookie cards I can choose from? One word, value. At a dollar or two per many of their base rookie cards, I think this is a very solid deal. Drake Baldwin and Nick Kurtz are Rookie of the Year winners. Historically speaking, the rookie of the year winners have high probability of being GOATesque for a variety of reasons including momentum and probably self-fulfilling prophecy as well. Baldwin also plays the catcher position for the best team in baseball right now. The Braves probably have enough depth to match evenly with the Yankees and Dodgers in postseason. James is a power hitter who may likely hit 600+ home runs and earn 3,000 hits if he has a long MLB career. I think he might have a similar career trajectory to that of Soto’s. 

Dalton Rushing is a unique case. He plays a premium position as a catcher but he is a backup for someone who will likely be on the Dodgers for a long time. If he was the starting catcher of the Dodgers, I would probably would not be investing in so many of his rookie cards because his rookie cards would probably be too overly hyped for my liking. Yes, some of the intangible stuff may seem a bit off recently, however, I think a potential trade might actually be good for him. The catcher position is probably the most difficult position to play in baseball hence shorter career longevity and more in demand especially those with a big bat. Rushing is way undervalued and way underutilized on both ends especially the offense side. He only had 60+ at-bat yet he already has seven home runs with a .300+ battling average compared the 2026 at bat leader Gunnar Henderson with 170+ at-bats, a barely .200+ batting average and nine home runs. Aaron Judge arguably the best hitter in baseball right now and this season’s home run leader so far with 16 home runs had 140+ at-bats. Andy Pages, his teammate who has 140+ at bats has nine home runs. I don’t usually intently invest in the rookie cards of pitchers for value reasons. 

I think that within 30 years there will be a *clean new all-time home run record given progressively better training, conditioning and athletics nutrition programs. Many players are able to regularly hit 50 and occasionally 60 home runs a season at the moment already. I think it is doable currently for a power hitter comes into the league at 20, and starts hitting on average 50 home runs at 26 for 10 years and average around 23 home runs for the other 12 years in the league. I also tend to believe if the all-time home run record can be broken the single season home run record can also be broken likely by the same player. I also think that player will also be able to get 3,000 hits as well. As great as Shohei Ohtani is, I think there will likely be a better American version of him within the next 50 years given the high athlete percentage in total US population. I believe two-way players in the MLB will become much more common in the future hence traditional one-way pitchers may not be as valued by teams as before.

Within the next five, I believe 90% of the most prominent superstar level players playing in the NBA right now will either retire or be out of their career primes. The potentially concerning part is there does not seems to be enough superstars who are prominent enough in the basketball pipeline right now who will likely fill their shoes in quality and quantity. Around 45% and 40% of the 50th and 75th NBA anniversary teams played in the NBA in the 1990s. Approximately 60% of the NBA’s top ten players of all time played in the 1990s. How many players on a future top 10 NBA players list who played in the 2020s? I’m sure most NBA fans have a ball park figures on that…..

What does this all mean? What this means is that the NBA likely still need to create a 100 year anniversary team. This means the NBA still need to pick certain number of players to be on the 100th anniversary team. Fans may not think a relatively young player playing in the NBA in the 2020s as a historical great, however, given each era may be judged a little bit different, that means if that player is relatively good, there is a solid chance of this player being on the 100th anniversary team, making multiple all stars, winning awards and ultimately being inducted to the basketball hall of fame. More post season games, introduction of the new in-season tournament and the 65 game award eligibility rule will likely mean a higher probability of injury and more NBA all star injury replacement(s) being selected. Regardless the strength of the league in a given era, the league still need superstars, face of the league, all stars and award winners etc. With all that being said, I think the rookie cards of Cade Cunningham, Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero are good values in my opinion. 

Wemby seems to be a great player. However, I personally am not invested in his rookie cards for several reasons. Mostly for basketball reasons. He appears to have had numerous injuries hence I question his basketball career longevity. I am not entire sure if can gain enough muscles to be Shaq level dominant without being potentially basketball injury prone and losing his court mobility. With the NBA rules on load management and 65 game award eligibility requirements, I am not sure how he will adapt to that in the long-run. If we talk about the Spurs we can’t talk about Tim Duncan and David Robinson. Tim Duncan is usually considered as a top 10 player and the greatest power forward of all time with five championships. Even at that level, Tim Duncan is considered a top 7-10 greatest NBA player of all time. David Robinson is widely considered one of the greatest centered of all time who played in the best big men era in the NBA, played on the Dream Team and has two championships. Both were teammates, won championships together, spent their whole careers playing for the Spurs and played against some of the greatest players and the greatest teams in NBA history and with some of the greatest Spurs ever. To me, just basketball wise, Wemby is going to have to surpass the careers of these two players to even have a shot at being a top 10 players of all time. On the non-basketball side, besides the normal overhype of top new players’ rookie cards and Wemby being a center and not a guard, there may be a few other marketability issues I will not mention here. The best example I can give on this is look at the prices of Shaq and Duncan’s base rookie cards now and compare that against the prices of his rookie cards when they first joined the league. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

Let’s talk about my Cade Cunningham, Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero  rookie sports cards to invest in for May 2026.

My 2020s rookie basketball cards collection is primarily made up of Cade Cunningham, Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero and Bronny James (whose rookie cards I discussed in my previous post(s)) rookie cards. I standby what I mention below and what I previously said about Cade, Chet and Paolo in my previous post.

“Chet Holgrem potentially generational beef with Wemby may work out like Bill Russell versus Wilt Chamberlain comparisons. One has too many rings for ten fingered to each wear one and the other is not primarily known as a winner but has significantly more on the personal career statistics and may have lots of stories some of which I don’t think would be appropriate to discuss here. With or without film, historically speaking after both retires many years later, if it were the case, the distinction between a top 40 player versus a top 50 player or whatever will come down to what first comes to mind to people who remember them. Chet’s cards value will likely be pegged to a ratio of whatever Wemby is at whether that’s plus or minus. I don’t waste money on buying Wemby cards just like I don’t buy David Robinson or Tim Duncan’s cards anymore even though many of their rookie cards are around a dollar or two each now.

Cade Cunningham’s Pistons historically have been perceived as a tough team for whatever historical reasons. As a guard, his height alone is relatable for many people. I think he is a regional story who may become a national or international story once he starts to win in the playoffs more consistently. I am not particularly attracted to his playing style or anything else. I just think from a statistical standpoint, his cards are very undervalued right now. Cade may get 30000 points and some championships making him a legend. I am not particularly attracted to Paolo Banchero’s playing style or anything else. I just think from a statistical standpoint, his cards are very undervalued right now.”

I think one of the elements that make watching or playing sports fun and entertaining is records. Records comes in many forms and do not necessarily have to be solely based on individual accomplishments. When players win championships, is that a purely individual accomplishment or a team effort? If you are a legend and won a championship in the twilight years of your career without being a core contributor, did you really win a championship? In baseball Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is probably one of the most important metrics if not the most important modern metric in judging a player’s value whereas in basketball +/- is an important metric. Are these metrics not heavily influenced by outside factors like intensity of competition and team composition?  Hence I standby what I posted previously:

“If I think as the same way as other people, I wouldn’t be the permanent contrarian. There are really a few intriguing things about him( Bronny James) that will resonate with people despite the hate he sometimes may get. His story of perseverance health wise and humbleness for someone who is in his situation is quite rare. He is pretty mentally tough and is quite wise for his age. People will look his stats and say all kinds of things. I don’t need to repeat it here. However, you have to see the forest for its guano not just s*** that one needs to spend money to clean up. This is a liability to asset double swing if one gets this valuation correctly. The father-son due is a combined story not just a singular story. That means stats can also be split among two players as in first father son duo reach xxxxx of points, assists, steals, regular season games, playoff games etc. Lebron is a historical figure of significant importance hence his scions who are part of this story will be as well. It is an inspirational tale about life and not just about sports. Lebron has at least a few more records to chase (tie for playing in most decades in the NBA, 50,000 regular season points, playing with his two sons in the NBA and in an NBA game on the same team).” I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

Let’s talk about my Bronny James rookie cards collection.

Everyday that Bronny and Lebron play NBA basketball, they may be breaking records. Many of these records will likely be long standing records that will not be broken for ages if they are ever broken at all. That’s legendary and folklore level tales on its own. I now have a very sizable Bronny James cards collection including many chase cards. To me, the Lebron and Bronny James combination are not just historical sports figures but role models who inspire groups of people and impact their lives for the better that ultimately benefit the entire society. For that, regardless of the potential polarization of opinions regarding these two athletes, I believe history will see them playing together in the NBA as a watershed moment that ultimately integrated the ethos for entire groups and entire generation off people into the greater liberal order of Western societies. For that, I believe Lebron and Bronny James should be at least nominated for a Nobel Prize for their endeavors. 

In sports cards history, there are a number of cards of current non-GOAT and non-hall of fame/non-high probability hall of fame trajectory players that have certain value. Examples include certain Bo Jackson, Mark Jackson, Billy Ripken and Ja Morant cards and numerous other cards that were likely not on most collectors’ radar when those cards first came out.

I believe one of Lebron’s many admirable traits as a leader is that my perception of him voicing his opinions loudly and proudly despite what others think about them. I actually do not agree with some of his opinions, however, when I compare him against the supposed “GOAT” who rarely voice opinions in certain genre, I respect Lebron even more. Yes, likely no one is perfect in the eyes of everyone. I think some of the things Lebron does are quite admirable despite of his wealth and fame which is directly contrary to the potential actions of certain potential “GOAT.” One fact that will low key win Lebron’s GOAT status in the future is the fact that there was no one who is overall even close to Lebron’s level that played in the NBA during Lebron’s tenure in the NBA. Lebron was literally the greatest overall basketball player for 20 plus years. During that 20 years, the world probably changed faster than any period in the history of humanity. Lebron may have had to deal with more scrutiny due to prevalence of social media yet I think for the most part, Lebron handled it quite well without having three retirements and whatever possible else. 

I think when people’s opinions become more rational and nuanced on Lebron, Lebron’s reputation will be greatly rehabilitated among his biggest critics after his retirement. Remember many definitions of concepts are subjective within a reasonable range/level. Lebron is GOATesque at the very least. This makes him GOATable and have a realistic opportunity to become the GOAT. I think Lebron will likely play another three to five years. That means Lebron may play in the NBA for nearly three decades. That means at least three generations of people with strong disposable wealth at some point in the next 80 years will have watched him play and may have the intend to transacting his cards. That is likely a longer time period than most S&P 500 companies on average will be in existence regardless of era. 

Why don’t I just invest in Lebron’s cards instead of talking about Bronny’s cards? Lebron’s rookie cards were one of those rookie cards I considered “overhyped” so I completely skipped on. Lebron had been in the league for over two decades, during that time the S&P 500 went through the roof at the very least 10X when all dividends are reinvested, yet most of Lebron’s rookie cards’ appreciation percentage have not even come close to S&P 500’s appreciation in the same period even when S&P 500 stocks on average are significantly more liquid and the index is much better diversified than buying a single class of sports cards. That doesn’t mean I don’t think Lebron is potentially GOATable in the future. I am investing in Bronny James cards as a derivative of their combined future NBA performances and their legac(ies).  

It is my hope that organizations that are engaged in social cohesion programs properly promote this event for the prosperity of the American society that may trickle down its benefits as a byproduct to the rest of the Western world and to others in this world who may deserve such godsend from the benevolence of American kindness. At the end of the day, my assets won’t appreciate as much without the nurture from a stable and free society. As a globetrotter who have seen the world in its many faces, I am immensely grateful for being associated with the greatest country in the history of all known universes and anything that resembles a universe regardless of time and space.

I will say it right here. Ben Rice has a high probability of becoming a Yankees legend.  Rice started his career with the Yankees, peaked at the right time and therefore have a solid chance of retiring with the Yankees. He is already quite unique in that he is an Ivy Leaguer who may also become legendary sports wise. That is usually not a high probability combination historically. Game recognizes game. Most typical global top 10 graduates don’t possess the OGidability on the book and on the street end. I worry more about Rice’s mental toughness aka potential Ivy preppiness than his technical skills. If he is perceived soft, his competition who may be hungrier and have far less pre-sports resources and options, may change his whole upward momentum. Even though sports is not a zero sum game, one could argue the competition is not only against contemporaries, not just generationally, not even against all athlete at all times, it is essentially against every living organism at all times in every parallel universe, multiverses, meta verses, data verses and whatever else other than between space and time. 

When you recognize Kobe is a borderline/fringe top 10 NBA player of all time even with his grit, skills and accomplishments, you will realize how hard it is to be a historical great. If Kobe had a hand contusion like that, he may likely return to the game the next play. Momentum and timing are very important in sports and in life, you can’t be considered clutch or can be depended upon if people believe you fade away when things get tough. Rice will likely have extremely high multipliers in card value due to his appeal on many fronts. However, the value the multiples ultimately create will depend on his on-field performance.

One thing that he will likely benefit greatly from is the Yankees now have a historically deep team that will likely add more capable players down the road. With all things considered, I believe the Yankees are better than the Dodgers and the Braves. With the Dodgers it’s more about direction than talent. Unfortunately righting a ship when it is going the wrong way takes time and time is limited in every season. The Braves’ issues are more structural. Albies should have been paid more. The fact his contract is perceived as possibly one of the worst in baseball’s century plus history is telling about what the organization can possibly do to make the situation right. When people feel they are being undervalued, it will not only potentially make them disgruntled or resentful, they may not be motivated or incentivized enough to reach their full potentials. Being magnanimous doesn’t mean being stupid, it could very easily also mean being a global minded strategic thinker.

With many of the Yankees top players on long-term contracts, the combination of Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Jasson Dominguez,and other great players and the Yankees being an attractive destination for elite players, I believe there is a reasonable likelihood Ben Rice will win a few championships with the Yankees. Yes the Yankees’ farm system is somewhat depleted, however, the Yankees has historically been able to attract marquee players from free agency. I see Rice as a 500 home run, 3000 hits and a Yankees legend with a statue in Monument Park kind of a player. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

Let’s talk about my Ben Rice and Jasson Dominguez rookie cards collection.

I have a very large Ben Rice rookie cards collection right now. Most of these I bought very early on in his career. Many of these rookie cards are in the form of chase cards like numbered RPAs. I personally think Rice will likely not be at the same performance level of Aaron Judge whom I believe will probably hit 600-700 home runs in his career, however, I think Rice’s cards will likely exceed that of Aaron Judge’s cards in value on average once they both retire due to Rice’s likely much higher cards multipliers. 

Jasson Dominguez is known to be a five tool player with a powerful offense. Dominguez’s recent defensive efforts are proving his intent to dominant both ends of the game. Yes, like Ben Rice Jasson Dominguez is currently not in the line up due to injuries. However, both players may be back to playing very soon. Dominguez also appears to be adjusting his batting posture which shows he is trying to actively improve his offense. He already been in the leagues for four seasons however limited that is and he is only 23 years old at this moment. I own numerous Dominguez’s rookie cards including his Bowman 1st rookie cards and his rookie chase cards. 

I believe there is a high likelihood Ben Rice will get a decade long plus contract from the Yankees. I also think Jasson Dominguez will be a Yankees for a few more years at the very least. It seems a few weeks ago some people were able to buy certain Jasson Dominguez rookie parallels and autographs cards in the $5 and $30 USD range respectively. Ultimately, at a dollar or two for their base rookie cards, it appears to be excellent deals to me when the right investment disciplines, hedges, diversification and reasonable moderations are in place. With the higher priced cards especially expensive chase cards, my typical strategy is to own a few of them to seek the upside exposure since the multipliers are quite high for GOAT rookie chase cards. 

To better balance my cards portfolio, I typically do not buy cards over $100 USD. I’m in this for the long haul, that means I will likely experience “switch GOAT,” another term I coined to refer to GOATistic perception changes over time due to various new social, societal, technological and other significant changes that causes new GOATs to be named and previous GOATs to no longer be considered GOATs in a given future era. When switch GOAT occurs, I usually see more paper gains in my portfolio. The previous GOAT’s rookie cards will likely still be worth something significant, just probably worth much less than the new GOAT’s rookie cards with much slower CAGR growth than when they were the GOAT. However, the aggregate cards value for both cards markets in my opinion usually is higher after switch GOAT occurs since in my opinion it typically expand the market with an enlarged fan base. If I didn’t have a good rookie cards pipeline, I would most likely have to pay a lot of potentially life changing money for these/those card(s) if I wanted them. Even then the downside risk might be too high and the upside gains may not be worth the potential downside risk and opportunity cost expended.

At end of the day, my alternative assets portfolio is only a small piece of my total investments. The collectibles market will probably start to peak to its full potentials when the tax laws change that will allow collectibles to be treated like mainstream investment vehicles with preferential tax treatments available for investment by various types of investment accounts including retirement accounts. For this to happen, the asset class likely need to be much more liquid, perceived as an economic engine, fungible, fractional and exist in derivative forms. This is another reason why I am developing a long game. I have seen significant increases in the amount of people who know about the hobby and who collect cards over the years. I think when in the future players themselves can form individual “Professional Athlete Corporations (PAC)” or a similar type of entity where their Name, Image, Likeness are incorporated into specialized investment indices with a market capitalization value and the PAC can issue licenses and control quality of the products it produces, that’s when these collectibles can truly become mainstream investments. Even though there is a modest likelihood of this happening, it will likely take years for this to happen. When people start to expect this to happen, likely exponentially more money will flow into this hobby and securing a “subscription” of a share of two at IPO in the PAC will probably be extremely difficult for the regular person. This is precisely why I am in this for the long-haul with a system in place to benefit from the future upsides.

Per what I talked about in my last post, I have a pipeline of rookie cards that I created by focusing on buying a substantial number of rookie cards of approximately 15-30 new players in a given major professional sports league annually. These are indexed long-term investments for me, ones that even if I appear to be wrong on, I typically do not ever intentionally sell unless I am literally needing money to keep me alive. I however will give away my cards to friends, people who are in need of cards or donate them. I have probably given out over a million cards one way or another in my life-time. I do this because it makes me feel good to give back because I have received plenty of free stuff from other people over the years as well and giving it away in my opinion does help grow the hobby by bring people who otherwise would not have known or be interested in the hobby in the first place.

I do sometimes add cards of a given player’s rookie card outside of their rookie year only if it’s within the early years of their career when they have foreseeable additional unrealized potentials and their cards are unnecessarily undervalued due to systematic issues. Typically a player need about five years to show signs of mirage GOATness, a term I coined to reflect seeing glimmers of GOATesqueness that you are almost never too sure about but your instincts tell you something could potentially be up. It will typically require at least eight years to see GOATesqueness in the open consistently. Unless that player starts at 19 years old in the NBA or MLB or 21 year old in NFL, you won’t most likely know the player has high GOATness probabilities until near the end of their competitive sports athletic primes. By that time, if you want to invests in that player’s chase cards, you will probably be spending a lot of money acquiring them. This is probably one of the biggest downsides of the flip culture. People who are not in this for the love of the underlying  art will have a hard time making wise decisions for a sustainable strategy and creating millennium wealth. With my background I could probably do almost anything I want to legally, however, I chose to do what I do because it brings me happiness due to a cocktail of reasons. 

Of course there will be one out of a million chance that a seemingly undeserving person win in the long-term, but hey, it’s a probability game, if you like that kind of odds then maybe go for it. But before you do, you may or may not want to lookup what may have happened to many lottery winners after they win life changing money. I don’t have to wait 20 years, 10 years or even two years to see results, my rookie cards pipeline is decades involving multiple major professional sports. I literally get new hall of famer rookie cards in my collection during each professional sports’ hall of fame induction ceremony just by maintaining my rookie cards pipeline. With modern day financial strategies, my cards “cards investment farm system” is even cheaper to maintain. I invest in what I invest in, I pick up the non-hyped new athletes’ rookie cards I don’t invest in extremely cheaply in bulk. I will let the cocktail investors make all the “big bucks” on rookie cards of players who I believe are overhyped. In my mind, these cards operate in the same vein as new cards on car lots, few rarely become the “vintage” worth the “opportunity cost” to maintain after driving off the lot and after depleting its “functional useful life.” I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

Let’s talk about my top 10 list of athletes’ rookie sports cards to invest in for May 2026.

I have some criteria I use when I buy rookie cards. I typically buy rookie cards of rookies from the same year and of players who base cards are typically found in dollar boxes. With some exception, that means I do not usually chase the “next biggest thing.” To be clear,  hypes do materialize into GOATential  occasional, however, they frequently end up manifesting into your run of the mill hall of famer (which are great achieves for the player given how hard they likely worked to get there) that typically end up in the inflation adjusted rookie base year dollar boxes. You just have to search for the prices of the non-premium junk era and later sets base rookie cards of your favorite non-GOATesque hall of fame inducted players to get an idea. It’s almost like you got nothing to show for if you held their cards for the long-term. Since I don’t buy for short-term gains or speculate due to volatility and risk, if I bought certain overhyped cards of top draft picks, I will probably on average end up losing the time value of money game due to inflation and compounding affects of good investments. 

Legitimate GOATs’ rookie cards can be 100X or more in value than their regular hall of famer peers. Think about some of the GOATs that have great reputation in some major sports and then compare their rookie cards from whatever set versus their non-GOATesque hall of famer peers. Like what I mentioned in previous posts, I play the long probability game which somewhat resemble the long-tail strategy, another contrarian strategy I frequently rely upon. 

I will discuss why I am collected the below rookie cards of each of these athletes in details in my subsequent posts. The below is a brief summary. Most of their base rookie cards below are around a dollar or two at the moment.

1. Ben Rice (Baseball): Reaching prime with the right statistics while playing for a world-class icon of a team. Higher multipliers due to reasons that I cannot fully disclosed due to social contract reasons.
2. Nick Kurtz (Baseball): Higher elite professional average expectancy remaining. Higher multipliers due to reasons that I cannot fully disclosed due to social contract reasons.
3. Drake Baldwin (Baseball): Hit the right indicators at the right age. Followed up with good second year trends on a good and storied franchise with recent championship. Many GOATs are rookie of the year winners. 
4. Jasson Dominguez (Baseball): Plays for a marquee franchise, still young, been talked about for years, probably just need to learn to field better which is likely not difficult if he becomes a designed hitter.
5. Chet Holmgren (Basketball): His potentially generational beef with Wemby may work out like Bill Russell versus Wilt Chamberlain comparisons. One has too many rings for ten fingered to each wear one and the other is not primarily known as a winner but has significantly more on the personal career statistics and may have lots of stories some of which I don’t think would be appropriate to discuss here. With or without film, historically speaking after both retires many years later, if it were the case, the distinction between a top 40 player versus a top 50 player or whatever will come down to what first comes to mind to people who remember them. Chet’s cards value will likely be pegged to a ratio of whatever Wemby is at whether that’s plus or minus. I don’t waste money on buying Wemby cards just like I don’t buy David Robinson or Tim Duncan’s cards anymore even though many of their rookie cards are around a dollar or two each now.
6. Cade Cunningham (Basketball): Pistons are frequently perceived as a tough team for whatever historical reasons. As a guard, his height alone is relatable for many people. I think he is a regional story who may become a national or international story once he starts to win in the playoffs more consistently. I am not particularly attracted to his playing style or anything else. I just think from a statistical standpoint, his cards are very undervalued right now.
7. Bronny James (Basketbal): If I think as the same way as other people, I wouldn’t be the permanent contrarian. There are really a few intriguing things about him that will resonate with people despite the hate he sometimes may get. His story of perseverance health wise and humbleness for someone who is in his situation is quite rare. He is pretty mentally tough and is quite wise for his age. People will look his stats and say all kinds of things. I don’t need to repeat it here. However, you have to see the forest for its guano not just s*** that one needs to spend money to clean up. This is a liability to asset double swing if one gets this valuation correctly. The father-son due is a combined story not just a singular story. That means stats can also be split among two players as in first father son duo reach xxxxx of points, assists, steals, regular season games, playoff games etc. Lebron is a historical figure of significant importance hence his scions who are part of this story will be as well. It is an inspirational tale about life and not just about sports. Lebron has at least a few more records to chase (tie for playing in most decades in the NBA, 50,000 regular season points, playing with his two sons in the NBA and in an NBA game on the same team). 
8. Dalton Rushing (Baseball): Plays for a marquee team. Higher multipliers due to reasons that I cannot fully disclosed due to social contract reasons.
9. Paolo Banchero (Basketball): I am not particularly attracted to his playing style or anything else. I just think from a statistical standpoint, his cards are very undervalued right now.
10. James Wood (Baseball) – Higher elite professional average expectancy remaining. Hit the right indicators at the right age. Followed up with good second year trends.

Yes, Wemby and a bunch of other players you probably think should be on my top 10 list for reasons I have mentioned above and below. To be Frank, if it was that high on your list, I would probably not have invested in the cards to begin with. All GOATs are historical figures, not all historical figures are GOATs. That means to become a GOAT, you have to do something historical relevant first as the first step to becoming a GOAT, in essence the historical figure that other historical figures during their life-time talked about. The thing you need to understand about Bronny James is he already made plenty of history and will likely make more history.

Many of the players on my list of rookie cards I have a substantial holdings of are majority baseball and the remaining are basketball with no football or hockey. Obviously this list is only a top 10 list, my actual shortlist of cards of athletes per annum is in the triple digits across all major professional sports. Baseball cards are the oldest types of collectible sports cards with over 150 years of history. Their cards collecting fan base is typically wealthier and the sports has many grail cards that shatters records almost every time they are sold. Yes, baseball is not played everywhere like basketball and soccer are, however, America is the richest country in overall nominal GDP and has extremely high median income that no 10 trillion or more econom(ies) now or in the next century will likely come anywhere near it.  

What the collectors in the biggest markets prefer set the trend and also sets the prices. The issue with football is career longevity. Most position players will play much shorter careers than their major professional sports counter parts. American girdiron football is undoubtedly popular, however, unlike other sports, the roster is huge with 50 plus active players on a team and players typically specialize on the defensive side, the offensive side or the special team. This makes long-term investing in the hobby challenging. The true premium position in football is the quarterback and then the two wide receiver or the two running back and maybe the tight-end. At most, there are only about six premium positions out of 30 plus possible major on the field positions (approximately 11 players on each of the three sides of play). Premium positions are about 15% of all positions in the NFL. In basketball premium positions are about 60% of all positions as the two guards and the small forward are typically more relatable for normal people therefore more popular than the power forward and center. In baseball premium positions are about 70% including the multiple starting pitchers, shortstop, centerfield, pitcher, third base and often sluggers such as designed hitters. Obviously prospecting baseball minor league cards are a completely different field of study that requires much more research.

I love chase cards with the sole exception that I no longer chase them. I probably opened over a million packs in my life, not too hard to do when you are able to open dollar packs and special packs that contains just one or four cards or when you bought thousands of junk era boxes of baseball, basketball, hockey and football cards for like three dollars per a 36 pack box. The real cost is on my hands, arms and personal life which I won’t discuss here. Years ago chase cards use to only mean a certain rookie card, an error card, a massively produced insert or a superstar card. Then parallels became a thing first with puzzles, holograms, gold/silver colors, numbered, acrylic and chrome cards then progressed into memorabilia cards such as on-card/sticker autograph and game/player worn material. 

I think opening packs are a waste of money except as a diversification tool. Your average expected value overtime in opening packs may most likely be a money losing endeavor. Even if a certain player become good propping up your initial investments, the opportunity cost of doing so in my opinion is much higher than a weighted diversified approach. What I do is I take a measured approach of buying an index of rookie cards of maybe 15-30 players depending on the sport each year based on an actuarial calculation framework. I take into account their age, position and skill sets and make a scientific estimate to a player’s cards appreciation potential. At this stage, I don’t care very much about a player’s marketability or intangibles because that’s just a multiplier issue which will be somewhat adjusted by the market anyway when buying their cards. The bottomline is, sports is a merit based endeavor with tangible result driven objective metrics, everything else is just icing on the cake. Good players will likely have value regardless of their other non-on-the-field attributes or conducts, as long as they are socially acceptable attributes. I focus on collecting cards of a certain number of new players because typically hall of fame induction, which many people use as a benchmark for how good a player was at his or her sport(s), will only have about 10 inductees every year. Out of that 10 inductees, some may or may not be former players and some may or may not be inducted due to their on the field sports achievements. Even more so, many hall of famers do not get their jerseys retired, not franchise players and are not part of all-time teams and top whatever lists.

Most junk wax era hall of famers’ rookie cards are only worth a few dollars at the most at retail unless they are one of the GOATs. I am in this sustainably meaning investments has to make fundamental sense in the long-term basis. I don’t waste time trying to catch the right timing with a speculator’s mentality. In my opinion, that is one of the easiest ways to lose everything, fast. As everyone may know, skill sets do not always translate into career success in sports. Unsystematic issues like Injuries, health issues,  differences in mentality and motivation, scandals along with a whole host of problems may derail a player’s career quickly. Systematic issues like lockouts, pandemics, change in amateur sports landscape like NIL that most players can’t control will also impact a player’s professional prospects. Momentum can shift rapidly and is even more pronounced at high levels of competition with higher intensity and faster pace of play. This is why sports cards investing is basically a probability game with underlying factors that determine direction and variation factors which ultimately dictate multipliers. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

Let’s talk about my chase cards collection.

I typically never sell rookie cards of a player. Of course you probably know the joke that in some sports due to their numerous levels of minor league systems, a player could literally be a rookie forever and 30 plus year old “rookies” are not that uncommon. However, some people do make a distinction between cards of players in pro uniforms, their “1st” card as labeled by a card brand I shall not name and their “true” rookie cards. Again, that’s just a multiplier issue of how many times that card appreciate when the player becomes the GOAT or possess GOAT features. I don’t typically sell rookie cards unless my life literally depends on it because those are the arguably the most important cards from a historical standpoint of a player. And because time travel doesn’t exist yet and generally most people will say one or two years are a player’s rookie year, rookie cards are relatively more desirable than other base cards, though there may be a distinction between rookie inset cards versus rookie base cards from a valuation standpoint depending on the features and rarity of both types of specific cards. In this day and age, even though the players with the most potential are selected at earlier rounds of the annual major sports drafts, many good players are still drafted at later rounds sometimes in the 6th or 7th rounds in the NFL or near 20th round in baseball or completely not drafted in basketball. 

The 30 or so different new players each year that I focus on buying their rookie cards will not all be hall of famers, GOATS or even semi GOATs. There are only so many players that can fit into a certain “top” something list, it is important to continue a pipeline of investments in order to be successful in this game in the long run. It is important to do so because GOATs may change overtime and current GOATs may be supplanted by new GOATs hence keeping the pipeline of new rookie card investments help build a formidable moat against trend changes. Eventually someone is going to sit on the top of the GOAT pyramid, ultimately it’s just a matter of who. You won’t always be right or wrong, second guess yourself doesn’t help either. You invest into what you invested in for a reason. I typically don’t change my mind on investments but I do protect myself through diversification and hedging. 

I still open backs once in a while, I just see opening packs as another way to diversify based on the will from the above whatever cards that brings me. I also don’t frequently say no to inexpensive rookie cards in bulk when it makes financial sense from the most recent years as that is another way to own rookie cards of players not on my annual rookie card short list in order to better distribute my risks.

I equate a card collector selling their short listed newer rookie cards in large bulk to a farmer serving breeder seeds on the dinner table. Most of these cards have some kind of historical value, at least a portion of these cards may need to be preserved for sustainability and historical reasons. Never mind everything and everyone takes time to grow and develop, I just think prospecting rookie cards is the bread and butter of those who are able to make serious money in this hobby sustainably. There were a lot of numbered cards from earlier eras that were numbered to the thousands or tens of thousands. More recent numbered cards may be numbered to less, however, there are also numerous “color” or “pattern” variations of these that when you add them all together as a similar asset class, it’s probably in the low to mid thousands.

Wait, if you never sell rookie cards, what do you do with the tens of thousands of “worthless” rookie cards of non-hall of fame players over time? I typically give these away to friends or people I know or just donate them to help grow the hobby. As for the hundreds or thousands of base rookies of players that become hall of famers or on a hall of famers trajectory, I typically reevaluate their GOATistics periodically to determine whether they will become GOATesque or not. I frequently study the GOAT list of the sheep or their bellwether to arbitrage between goat s*** and milk balls. Selling cards because you want to typically means you will lose money regardless for what cause. People who truly collect cards in the first place love cards that have signs of becoming heirlooms and will most likely not even consider parting with these cards until they reach some ridiculous certain 1952 card value level.

One of the wise moves when transacting rookie cards is the modified collar strategy or an alternative asset alpha-beta strategy. I will continue to hold the cards of a player, I just want to diversify my portfolio of cards of that player by various attributes like trading for one or a few grail card with many non-grail rookie cards of the same player and holding certain amount of non-grail rookie cards of that player. This is just an internal diversification to balance between liquidity, upside and downside risks. I typically like my grail cards to be some sort of a low numbered specific type of RPA (rookie card of the player their pro uniform, game used patch/laundry tag, fancy autograph with a general but bold statement next to hand-numbered serial numbers) from an established card company.  And yes, some collectors also collect second or third years card of a player, I typically do not for all the above mentioned reasons.

Some people put a date or a range of card sets that they consider vintage in their definition of vintage sets. In my decades of collecting, I typically define vintage as something that is old enough to be considered a popular classic by the masses (the older the better because time travel into the past is physically impossible at the moment) and in decent condition that people would enjoy viewing. Ever wonder why multi-trillion dollar companies split their shares or issue millions of shares for a price regular people can afford? Like in life, there is no such thing as absolute-absolutes, only relative comparisons. Not all good stories starts with happily ever after, in fact, some begin with an evil step mother or a destitution. I look at an investment first at the systemic level. That means I typically have already identified an asset class as viable investment options for me before I do additional research. A high tide lifts all boats regardless whether the high tide is caused by nature like gravity or by humans like dumping a large number of cards into the ocean. After observing the tide movement, the savvy investors try to look under the waters to study what happens when the tide ebbs and that is typically when causality may be explored. 

As I live with a futurist mindset, I do not feel comfortable paying anything that the sheep flock cannot afford. To put it bluntly, unlike in certain societies abroad, the economic vitality in much of the American aligned western world depends on these people to work and spend, frequently in advance of actual outputs. That is why I typically spend a penny to below five hundred to invest in various items that I enjoy and that ultimately will yield a better outcome for me. In reality, it’s usually the cheapest things that end up being most expensive anyway because most people take these things for granted and therefore never true appreciated its value until they miss the boat.

Most people don’t realize some of the biggest portions of investment expenditure is actually time and opportunity cost not the initial financial expenditure. Everything that is worth something now all derived from something that initially was near free. Like natural resources such as land and knowledge that ultimately become innovation and technology. All these things became expensive overtime because of economics. Nominally free things are never truly free because nothing is ever free. Free things take me too much time to figure out its real cost. You may be able to homestead land centuries ago, however，you still had to defend it with whatever methods you had to do it based on your level of morality, adherence to the law and the social contract kind of like with everything today for example reputation, intellectual property and pretty much everything. You can’t tell me there is no cost associate with all of that. I was going to write a whole paragraph detailing my elite background that you probably don’t have and are even considered rare on Wall Street, in Silicon Valley or K Street but after further thoughts, I decided to channel my energy to getting rich from “husbandry.” For these reasons, there is absolutely no where else I want to be at now than in America. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

Let’s talk about my vintage cards collection.

If you followed the markets, you know many collectibles rise because of popularity of certain themes but what is  equally important is its affordability to its target market. I am skeptical of large transaction amounts with only few bids. The potential for manipulation on these are high. With collectibles, you could probably securitize the underlying assets through creating derives like equity products such as REITs making these assets fungible, however, the underlying assets themselves are non-fungible and not as liquid as publicly traded equities. Not understanding this concept is kind of like earrings chicken nuggets and not thinking about the chicken.* Investing in fungible goods frequently involve benchmarking against some type of parameter and also having to rely on one’s judgment because of the uniqueness of each item.

Certain assets are just a popular social media influencer or two’s endorsement away from becoming big time. If a certain card from a not to be named 1952 card set is so valuable because of reason x, why isn’t the same happening to the rest of the cards in the set at various justifiable multipliers? If the vintage Pokemon card boom is any indication of a high tide lifts all boats in that harbor, it certainly appears there is a reasonable probability of the effect possibly happening elsewhere within similar asset classes.

If you are one of the historical GOAT contenders of the hobby, you probably know how hard it is to buy certain vintage stuff offline. I am consciously making a trust factor distinction between offline transactions regardless whether it is on card or sticker autographs issued by known card companies versus its online equivalents. When dealers have a desire to buy certain items as an indicator of market demand and they can not easily obtain these items from the supply side of the market, that typical is a clue that either collectors may be conspicuously and non-violently boycotting current market valuation mechanism for the assets they possess or there truly are not that many left of those item to sell to begin with. The distinction definitely matters in pricing valuations which is basically just a multiplier issue, however for all intents and purposes, I will likely start buying those assets immediately by paying around asking price. In this regard, dealers in realpolitik terms may just be pawns of the capitalism game for that marketplace.

I will start off by saying I have never graded anything in my life for reasons I described below. However, I been through the process before, owns many graded card and know how it all works. Basically grading encompass mainly two services combined into one: authenticating if the item is real then identify what it is and grading the condition of the item based on certain criteria. Note, grading companies also don’t grade everything even within their own grading collectible asset class specialt(ies) making their service(s) not anywhere close to omnipotent. Their reputation is also a big variable as most if not all are not global Fortune 500 companies with other aspects that I won’t say here but clearly annoys me. When the certification from certain grading compan(ies) is/are reported, it can create a permanent issue for those who may be involved in a transaction, at minimum, potential privacy related issues. 

In my opinion, the people investing certain alternative asset classes may not be ready to handle Wall Street type money. It is not too difficult to review someone’s resume and within 10 seconds know that is not the drop down of 10 or so schools, elite internship, extracurricular activities, patents and trademarks, national competition awards, entrepreneurship experiences and being the president of whatever club your firm is looking for. And that’s just credentials. Never mind what a background check that includes a check on potential criminal records, federal agency hiring process friends and family check and credit scores may find. With all due respect, some of these people should never be in this hobby in the first place. Obviously, many already left, but there is probably still many more who should not be in this hobby. I am quite annoyed by the grading services for opening the floodgate making it easy for these people to come in and disrupt the market. On the other hand, I am also a greedy capitalists like many others who is extremely thankful for these people coming in and making the hobby much bigger than before. Obviously the whole collecting scene had changed significantly a few years before the pandemic but much of the growth in the large inflow of people came during and after the pandemic. The field is still in some sense a Wild West for most collectibles asset classes except for the coins and banknotes scene for reasons I discussed in previous post(s). I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

Why do people value grading in the first place? 

It is true standardization for certain things can be reasonable in the modern era. Some people who clearly know their craft grade just because they know the buyer need to see a grade provided by an “expert” in order to make a decent profit. Grading wasn’t even a thing, with some exceptions, for the thousands of years people have been collecting. The earliest form of grading services of any kind, not related to cards grading, may have been around for close to 60 years yet just baseball cards alone have been around for over 150 years. Card grading may not have been a very prevalent service most people utilized until the last decade or so.

Why don’t I grade things or precisely, why don’t I grade things right now? First of all, I think grading is very subjective within a somewhat objectively framework. Most of the grading services employ different human beings to grade the condition of cards from corner sharpness and surface conditions to centering and etc. I think there are just way too much standard deviation between the grade provided by one grader vs that provided by another grader which frequently result in collector’s arbitrage opportunities where they crack the slab/plastic package open and send collectibles to get graded again, frequently to the same grading company and may often get a different grade. There may be grading companies that use AI for grading, but then again, AI probably can’t escape the potential human bias either because most of the time it’s about machine learning things humans want it to learn based on the criteria set by the human. My biggest issue regarding the grading is transparency. I don’t trust these companies enough to leave anything with them for even one millisecond, or actually, I don’t even want them to know I have it. 

The other issue is indicators. Right now most grading services give out scores on point systems which seem to be a good standardization measure. However, many collectors believe grading companies were less stringent on their grading in earlier years than now resulting in collectors rigorously review the certification length to determine which era the grading came from and assigning premium or discounts on the value of the graded collectible during negotiations based on that. That is why I believe the grading services’ core competency is actually their ability to authenticate an item. However, historically there have been mistakes made on that front as well by grading companies in certain collectible fields. 

So if I don’t grade collectibles, how do I know if a collectible is real or not and it’s condition? To me, if you are going to be in this field for a long time with a lot of stake in the game, you will likely become an expert yourself. In my opinion, the ones who do well in this field in the long terms are likely already naturally selected and vetted by the hobby market forces. And to be frank, I wouldn’t trust anyone who may be paid a near minimum wage with incentives that may or may not be in contrary to my best interest to handle my stuff without me being involved from start to finish and every second during the process. I am not going to allow a carefully curated collection powered by raw American capitalistic prowess potentially get sabotaged like that. 

In my opinion, privacy is probably going to be more valuable as time goes on. If you are an investor, you may have a higher propensity to want anonymity for perfectly valid reasons. People who prefer precious metals and cash may probably wouldn’t like their information freely being associated with a graded piece of collectible that is bought and sold over time.

Yes, people can know your information if they work really hard and expend resources to do so. You may want to create as high of legally compliant deterrent cost as possible for people to not potentially violate your rights. Having your information all over a certification number kept online likely forever is probably not the best way to protect your information. It could get worse if you ask a store or a third party to submit to a grading service. To put it simply, getting your things graded may exposes you to an economic class that may not be within your normal economic circles. Collecting is no longer about sophistication since the influx came in. Savvy collectors and investors may be wise to come up with innovative and social contract acceptable /non-taboo ways to legally insulate themselves from a different crowd that they may not want to associate due to higher potential negative risk yet at the same time taking advantage of the larger market size and liquidity.

Don’t get me started on the grading cost which can frequently exceed the value of the item submitted for grading depending on the grade that is received, turnaround time which can frequently take half year or more and the “up charge” fees because your collectible is now worth more because of getting certain grade. To get faster turnaround time, one may have to pay premium prices to the grading companies which frequently cost exponentially more. I believe grading for condition is most desirable when you have something of high value that you want to sell as soon as possible, you are willing to pay premium prices for fast turnaround and if you can feel assured that your assets are safeguard in all phases of the grading process preferably same day service. Above all of the mentioned above, I am looking for something to hold long term which is typically how you become old money. Grading services and its industry “GOATs” may be too young to have any multi-century brand equity trust factor premiums and don’t have the sophisticated backgrounds which means it may add no long term value in most of my life-time. Considering there is almost zero barrier cost of entry meaning there are a lot of these companies and we are in the AI, I personally don’t even waste time grading anything. If I have to grade something, I probably don’t know what I am doing and in that case, I should have no business in being in the field. Everything else is just transactional cost like day trading.

Like in the stock markets, there are cocktail collectors and there are Wall Street institutional investors with elite backgrounds. I only listen to cocktail collectors to arbitrage better. Their collecting tendencies are frequently more sentimental than what is required to get paid big but they are the biggest herd with mass. Then again I don’t listen to the Wall Street ones either. Many of these type of investors are bandwagon people and some may be in this hobby for the wrong reasons. Normally I would recommend a website for you to learn more about the topic if you want to, however in this case, I won’t even bother because I could not in good conscience do so.

My first loves in collectibles are banknotes and coins. I use to go to many shows just for fun and I was frequently the only youngster in the room looking to buy stuff. Many of my investing principles derive from my days of buying paper money and coins. Sure, I also collected many other things at the time, however, the coin and banknotes community was at the time the most vibrant and largest in terms of market size for a consistent class of mainstream, investible collectibles assets by far out of all of the collectibles at the time. Obviously one of the major factors that made coins and banknotes so valuable is because they are each 1/1 collectibles with their own serial numbers that is unique making them essentially non-fungible products issued by authoritative sources that have incentives to keep their currencies trustworthy and actually had a real function since they are a medium of exchange. When they are in circulation, they may even come with a “life-time warranty” since damaged ones can be exchanged for functional ones at almost any bank within the jurisdiction territories where the currency is created. Basically, these items as a collectibles is just a byproduct of something much larger. Other people have more incentives to make this work more than you do. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities. 

Now, let’s talk about my coins and banknotes collection. 

Money supplies are typically controlled by the governments of the issuing countries and territories. Running sustainable economies require active fiscal and monetary policies like M1-M4 measurement monitoring to ensure fiat, coins and credits are managed at a level that create liquidity, curb unnecessary inflation, stray away from deflationary pressure, create employment opportunities, encourage reasonable and sustainable investments that create more jobs and spur invention etc.  Money as a core financial instrument follows opportunity cost principles. Time is a valuable resource. You can’t easily buy time, at least right now, you can likely only better manage time. With current technology, it is technically plausible to time travel forward but likely very difficult to travel in time backward. A reality that likely make time value of money and opportunity cost principles work, at least at this moment. This is why when I get a chance, given all things and elements are equal or near equal, I like to buy older/vintage investable item(s) from earlier periods, before my time. I am able to do this, frequently at no premium, because not everyone hold the same view on this topic.

There are some truth to some people stating it is difficult to lose monetary face/nominal value of the coin and banknote when collecting currency because even if the currency is no longer legal tender, Western governments usually offers some type of redemption for new currency at whatever the new exchange ratio is. Of course, real value of money could and frequently do get impacted by purchasing power changes due to economic reasons like inflation or deflation, though that can also be mitigated through diversification, arbitrage, hedging and other potential methods. 

Sovereign entities though sometimes do issue solely commemorative currencies,  most governments issue and circulate currencies to provide liquidity in the market which they often do so through the services provided by banks at the retail and wholesale levels. In simple terms, if you are a collector, you could legally get near uncirculated or even uncirculated coins and banknotes from banks at face value via simple banking transactions. And in most cases throughout history, if you simply just hold these for long period of time, with the power of inflation and human nature, you could literally see these assets increase over time without doing anything else accept storing them properly. Obviously there are things that make certain coins and banknotes more rare than others like lower estimated circulation rate, certain desirable year of issuance, place of mint that rarely make these, error that may have been accidentally created but we’re widespread etc.

With many collectibles now being viewed as legitimate alternative assets, I believe coins and banknotes collectors will likely be some of the biggest beneficiaries of this trend long term, generationally speaking. With potentially significantly more digital transactions happening on Zelle, Venmo, PayPal, Google Pay and Apple Pay in the US, in the West and overseas, coins and paper money’s market share of total money supply may decrease overtime that potentially could make paper money and especially coins that increasingly cost more and more to make due to inflation on raw materials like metal, more valuable. One thing about physical money that rarely get discussed is the relative freedom it holds for people. Barring a national collapse or other catastrophic collapses which are unlikely to happen in large scale for the next 100 years in the Western world given the entire financial system is riding on its strength and well-being, physical currency protect people’s privacy, a feature that is called out prominently in cryptocurrency. If you do not want people or perhaps just certain person to know what you transacted historically, keep your financial information secure and want to keep your anonymity for all kinds of valid and legally permissible reasons, you probably want to pay in cash. Cash is literally more freedom for those who simply want more privacy when used in compliance with the law. Yes, there are serial numbers on banknotes, however, in almost 99.99% of the cases, no entity will spend vast amount of time and resources just to track it down when it is not worth it. 

Many older coins that were made from gold or silver had significant intrinsic value that were themselves kind of act like inflation protected assets.  Investing in coins and banknotes are wonderful isn’t it? Perhaps, however, most investments are inherently subject to the risk-reward tradeoff. Also, one needs to remember not all investments work for everyone. For example, if you are looking to sell an item that is worth one million USD quick and due to its cost, there will be very limited amount of potential buyers hence you as a seller have little leverage in this situation and may need to wait a long while before selling the item and possibly not sold at the optimal price. Conversely, you may have a large number of items you want to sell for one million USD. Yes, many can buy pieces from the collection but the time it takes to sell them all and presumably to various buyers will also mean it will take a long time to sell all the items you want to sell and possibly not sold at the optimal prices. You can learn about coins and banknotes by visiting The American Numismatic Association’s website.

Last time I talked about Pokemon cards as a potentially high growth alternative asset, especially Wizards of the Coast era vintage cards. What I didn’t provide were benchmarks serving as indicators to its  probable meteoric rise in value. I like winners and I value my time. I will only own or spend time on things that I believe will make me either better off directly or as a medium to become better off. I owned a large number of cards from the Legend of Blue Eyes White Dragon cards and cards from almost every popular set and franchise you can name. Not only are some cards from certain entities hard to sell, in the case of Yu-Gi-Oh!, I lost interest even keeping them “pennies on the opportunity cost dollar for similar era optimal investments” due to a myriad of reasons, most notably because of Yu-Gi-Oh! reprints, whatever logic for these are. One of my core tenets investing in assets is that they must have stakeholders, even the peripheral ones, with a sense of fiduciary responsibility to my well-being as an investor, regardless of motivation, form or substance. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.  

Now, let’s talk about my sports cards collection.

To better understand why Pokemon cards have high potentials, you just have to look at the coin and banknotes and the sports cards markets, more specifically, baseball cards market. If you ever attended a coin and banknotes show, scanned the room for who most of the attendees attending these shows are, you will probably understand what I am talking about. This is even more pronounced before the pandemic. It all make sense since these types of investments require high levels of disposal income, extensive knowledge about the subject matter, in the field experience and strategic patience to buy cards for often large sums of money, hold them for years then sell these assets when they want to. With that, they can dictate which attributes in these assets are the most desirable traits such as a specific originating locale or era and those who want to make money from the market will simply have to tailor to these people’s needs. 

The average age of Pokemon card collectors are still quite young, completely reasonable given the age of the franchise and its initial likely target audience’s ages. Demographic groups of stakeholders matters in almost everything including in investing. Yes, one Pokemon card owned by a very famous person with a large social media presence did break sales record(s) recently, however, if you read articles about the highest valued cards ever sold, you probably already know most of these are sports cards. Like generational wealth, baseball cards are frequently passed down from generation to generation. I believe one of the biggest issues with sports cards is its volatility, more so with cards of currently active athletes than retired athletes. The problem is athletes are human-beings who live in real life unlike Pokemon characters. That means will most likely create volatility in card is one of the greatest-of-all-times (GOAT or at the very minimum a once in a generation talent and/or there is something special about the card itself that was later discovered that had nothing to do with the behaviors of the athlete. As mentioned earlier, I prefer to invest in lower valued versions of alternative assets that have all the right attributes because it allows me to free up cash by diversifying my risk into numerous smaller investments while keeping my portfolio liquid at the same time aiming for a higher expected value. 

At the end of the day, rational people will benchmark assets one way or another. Metrics like multipliers and ratios will likely be employed. If I am significantly above average in identifying value than others and presuming multipliers are relatively within ballpark, why would I want to tie up that much cash in one single high value asset that will take time to sell when I can spread the risk among my portfolio and possibly get a higher premium due to the card’s lower cost of acquisition and higher liquidity. For purchases on cards of athletes I invest in, I tend to stick to rookie cards, cards in good condition because of the lower price differential on lower valued cards at the time of acquisition, numbered cards, autographed cards, patch cards, and/or all of the above like numbered RPA cards. As long as the prices are properly adjusted, I am typically okay with differences among similar cards such as on card vs sticker autographs and professional vs. amateur level uniforms. After all, these differences do not change the core essence of the investment’s attributes, only its desirability of the baseline value which will affect the multiplier. All of the abovementioned attributes make a card more rare and scarce provided you have reasonable trust in the issuing entity and the industry and the world have not fundamentally changed at the macro level.

Wait, investing in sports cards sounds like a lot of work, why don’t I just stick with Pokemon cards since they are way more stable and also grows pretty fast! There is a reason why investors prefer to diversify their portfolios. Sports cards have higher alphas but also have higher betas, translation, higher risk and higher returns. With Pokemon cards, you mostly only have to worry about systemic or market risk once you come up with a prudent collecting strategy. In some sense, the cards of desirable Pokemon characters like Pikachu and Charizard, mostly introduced in the mid to late 1990s and the early 2000 during the Wizards of the Coast era are kind of fungible in that you mostly can’t go wrong buying them because the storylines are already fundamentally set and its future storyline is not too difficult to predict ballpark wise. Hence regardless of the cards of the sets you buy for some of these Pokemon characters, the baseline values will likely be perceived as the same by bellwether investors, attribute differences like artworks are just multipliers to the equation. 

With sports cards, because there are millions of athletes in all different kinds of sports who played in different eras, in different leagues and who played with different levels of completion, investing in these is more like buying a house with each having distinct characteristics like its location, neighborhood median income level, local economy etc and all these things constant evolve over time.  This is precisely why English Pokemon holographic cards, especially the vintage ones cost more. Not just because of the language or potential market size difference, but mostly due to pull rate of holographic cards where the Japanese vintage packs essentially guaranteed one holo card per pack whereas the English version packs did not. Hence because the GOAT of a sport is literally just one person or a handful of people at the most, a title that take frequently decades of work to achieve and is often only publicly recognized and granted with consensus years later. 

One would argue identifying a potential GOAT who likely had to be benchmarked against hundreds of thousands of contemporaries and predecessors in the few popular sports that actually have a large sports cards collecting fan base, the premium for the massive amount of effort and resources that are poured into this search is akin to finding a specific atom with just the right amount of electrons, protons and neutrons in whatever its required final form be it ionization, fusion or whatever else in a forest in the dark racing against time and with a copious amount of other hunters now that they smelled the money from  a potentially $100 billion dollar future industry,  have to be huge for all this expenditure to be worth it. Most people like winners and matters with certain desirable attributes, some people are actually willing to pay for these features. 

The animation and TCG aspect of the Pokemon franchise will likely prevent it from issuing true rookie cards, numbered cards, memorabilia cards including autographed cards any time soon, things that are highly valued in sports cards collecting. One thing that could be a Pokemon card trend in the future is collecting the cards of a Pokemon’s first introduction or appearance in the TCG. This concept is currently not valued in the Pokemon TCG world with the first edition labels on certain Wizards of the Coast sets being the closest concept. This concept could take off some time in the future, however, given most of the super popular Pokemon’s were introduced during the WOTC era and they had 1st edition labels back then, the ceiling on this concept taking off is probably mild at best. Yes, timing is more important in sports cards investing and it requires up to date information and data to make the most optimal decisions, kind of like what a short term investor or a day trader need to do to be successful in their craft. 

Determining what cards to invest in is a complicated process involving doing a ton of research and analysis on on the athletes featured on the cards themselves including their current and future on the field performance and off the field marketability as celebrities. My goal is to buy future GOATs cards before they evolve into their final form of greatness. This means I need to know what are the important aspects of their roles as professionals, what their personal career and life goals are and do they have what it takes to get there. Winning is not really about luck or having some type of super natural abilities, while both will probably help immensely, for the common person it basically comes down to do you understand the groups who will be in some way transacting with these assets. It’s mostly about understanding the group think strategy dictated in various ways by the opinion leader(s) now and potential ones in the future in a timely and relevant manner frequently requires predicting or forecasting. To move the market, pure independent and critical thinking alone will not work. What will work is movement by the masses based on some type of a robustly or even widely believed plausible built logic that at least initially makes sense and the concepts can be refined in the future if necessary, and a call for action from the bellweathers will lead to action. There is a reason why the term bellwether is frequently referred to in investing, a sheep that is both empowered and emasculated, an interesting dichotomy that makes you wonder if things really appear as it seems. You can visit Topps Official Website to learn more about the sports cards industry.

This is my first post as The Permanent Contrarian, TPC for short. I am a hardened US based professional with elite/GOAT level, world-class FU credentials and street notoriety. I understand most of the issues in the world and keeps abreast of all the latest technology developments, in most cases, as a direct participant. I am also an intersectionalist and a conceptual expansionist who is credited for creating numerous brands and intersectional concepts from multiple disciplines. 

Through conducting a series of impactful, on the field actions in geographical locations, situations and against opponents you will probably never be able to even famoth, I have earned the privilege to not give one quark-f*** about what anybody thinks when I don’t have to. In other words, I believe the world only exist when my eyes are open and my brain is functional, all forms of life ceases to exist when they are not. Hope my points and views come across concise and clear. On my site, I write about topics from a permanent contrarian’s perspective, which is often not popular, frequently different from the mainstream narratives. I couldn’t care less about what sheeps think except for arbitrage purposes. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.   

Now, let’s talk about my Pokemon cards collection. 

Pokemon cards are works of art to some and the fastest growing, stock market returns beating alternative assets investments to others. Having a collection of over a million cards with an accumulated life time ownership of many more, I probably had billions of dollars worth of collectible assets pass through my hands at one point or another, a terminology I coined as the touch rate. Most of these were identified and purchased by me, along with grouping my other assets like emerging market stocks listed on Pink Sheet, virtual assets including social media websites and domain names, among other things most people at that time did not touch altogether mostly because they did not understand how to create a personal alternative investment index decades ago, when none of these things were even on people’s radars.

I sold or given away things people valued, which mostly are things that will not generate the most optimal returns. To put it bluntly, desirability often accompany rarity and scarcity. When everyone have them, care for them, acquire and sell them, value them then they will most likely not be the most optimal investments. I have a whole balance score card of demands for my assets not just its periodic returns and appreciation potentials but a wide range of attributes that make other people when they are educated about them would eventually want them too. Such attributes include good eye appeal with sentimental values and emotional support, prestige, liquidity to even the lowest pedestrian level common denominator, ease of concealment for transnational or intergalactic transfers, low maintenance and storage costs, etc. Wealth is just a medium resource that can help one acquire other tangible, intangible and hybrid assets. When you have assets to protect, you may have to protect them kinetically, morally and politically.

When you are accumulating assets, you will likely need adequate cash flow to finance it properly and not be forced to make financial decisions on other people’s terms. When you have assets for sale, you need to find ways to sell it optimally. When you have ideas, you need garner trust from the community to propagate and evangelize them. Every action requires specific methods and resources to execute these actions successfully. Pokemon cards check a lot of the boxes above. Obviously nothing probably last forever, with Pokemon cards however, in my opinion, the intrinsic unsystematic risk is much lower than sports cards.

Having dealt with millions of sports cards, I can say with certainty the peak and trough for these assets are almost unpredictable with certainty, regression and conjoint analysis and all. After all, Pikachu is probably not going to get into a scandal of any kind. As long as the systemic risk is reasonable and the franchise is managed well, the volatility of these assets could be a lot less than seemingly similar asset classes. Nostalgic value for you on certain sets obviously depends on when you got into the hobby, however, from a print run, rarity and intangible standpoint, the Wizards of the Coast time era official Pokemon cards will probably be relatively better investments due to the “first factor” even if future generations never bother to watch the first episodes of the animation, though if they are fans, they will probably do watch a clip or two at the very least anyway because they can and most if not all of these episodes are televised, accessible, recorded in a relatively permanent medium. You can visit The Official Pokemon Website to learn more about the franchise.