I think there is a 40% chance the Knicks will sweep the Spurs in this NBA Finals, a 70% chance it will win in five games, a 90% chance it will win in six games and a 99% chance it will win in seven games. I think the Knicks will most likely win in five games mostly because win streaks are usually hard to break like inertia unless something more powerful breaks it apart. When the inertia does break, there may be some “dead cat bounces” or a “last gasp.” Hence I believe even if the Knicks have their streak broken, they will likely still win the series, that probably is much higher if they can win Game 2. As I mentioned before the start of Game 1 of this NBA Finals, the Spurs were about 90% of themselves during that games and likely will be 95% of themselves in game 2. The Knicks essentially took away the Spurs’ home field advantage. New York and San Antonio are too totally different cities and environments. The Knicks play in arguably the world’s most famous arena with the brightest lights on them every home game. That lack of five percent from the Spurs likely in Game 2 will mean they may likely lose again. The Spurs are on an extremely short rotation heavily relying on Wemby on offense and defense.
KAT as I mentioned before will strength Wemby out and Mitchell Robinson will dominate the paint when they are both on the floor at the same time during the Finals. Unfortunately for Wemby, he came into the league during a time when there is already a likely GOAT in Lebron James and will likely be compared to Lebron in the future in terms of greatness. Lebron has too much going for him to likely not play a few more years which likely will coincide with Wemby’s prime. Unfortunately the Spurs cast at least in the next few years might not be a historical level all-time team. Wemby is also not American and plays on a very small market team which from a marketing prospective may not be the best scenario as big sports markets in America by far make the most money out of all single country markets in this category. From a cards investing standpoint, I don’t think Wemby cards are worth buying in the long-run contrary what all the hypes are all about. If you know what the current hobby hype mechanism and its typical pricing cycles, you probably know what I am talking about. In Wemby’s case, the marketability issues are just the multiplier.
The principal issues with Wemby being even near GOATesque are for one he will likely not even sniff GOAT levels because he is in Lebron James’ era, Lebron, likely the eventually NBA GOAT will likely not retire until a few years later when he achieve most of the remaining attainable milestone records in the NBA. Secondary, Wemby is too thin and will likely not be able to gain much weight and muscle without sacrificing his potentials and increasing injury risks which historically has held true for many players with similar physique. Thirdly, I am not entirely sure if Wemby will even be top three in all-time greatest Spurs before he retires which even the greatest Spurs in Tim Duncan is an around top seven to ten player. Right now the Iceman and the Admiral are well ahead of Wemby. Though I think Wemby arguably and statistically could be ahead of the Iceman, however, I am unsure if he will ever be better than the Admiral due to the big man era he played in, his likability as a sort of NBA American hero, the Twin Towers era and his rings. Fourthly, Wemby will likely be compared to Tim Duncan, the issue here is Tim Duncan won a ring in his second NBA season at 23, Wemby likely won’t win a ring this year, even if he wins one next year, he will be slightly older than Duncan was though just by a few months. Fifthly, the era Wemby plays in could be argued as one of NBA’s weakest era for the center position. NBA in its golden era was known for its physical guards play and bruising centers. There is a reason why great shooting centers like Jack Sikma was not elected to the hall of fame until recently. And lastly, I am unsure if any of Wemby’s teammates on this Spurs team will be a hall of famer for purely NBA basketball reasons, regardless of the rigor of being inducted as a basketball hall of famer. The 2022-2023 Spurs championship team had four hall of fame players in Tim Duncan, David Robinson (his last year playing in the NBA), Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili along with one of the greatest coaches in NBA history and the NBA coach with most NBA game coaching wins, hall of fame coach Gregg Popovich. That’s five hall of famers on one team. I think the Spurs this season is the accidental Finalist. The Thunders would likely have beaten the Spurs this year had Jalen Williams not had a reinjury regardless of whether Ajay Mitchell played or not. I believe NBA teams will essentially figure out how to win against Wemby.
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What cards to collect and/or invest in based on the NBA 2025-2026 season Finals?
My predictions are typically based on a set of dynamic factors considering both the statistical probabilities via using scientific data analytical methods and the real-world, human nature non-vacuum behavioral changes resulting from inputs and outputs that interacts ultimately creating various scenarios. When I predicted the Knicks will likely win Game 1 a day or two before the finals tip-off, I utilize historical and recent results based on various factors such as energy level, momentum/inertia, experience level, historical and recent performance etcetera combing with human factors. The Knicks are in high confidence with a historical 12-playoff win streak. Physiologically speaking, people are much more motivated and their best will come out when accomplishments are rewarded with positive reinforcements. In this case, a Knicks championship now is almost universally good for the world except for San Antonio Spurs linked entities. This version of the Spurs led by Wemby also have not had much playoff experience nor much playoff success. This is actually the Spurs’ first playoffs appearance in about seven years and the young core have no championship experience. The player one on the team who does is Harrison Barnes who is mostly a reserve player. Because of all this, the Spurs likely are mostly not expected by its fan base to win and likely have no pressure from anyone to win the championship. For the Spurs now, getting to the playoffs was already a huge success and making it to the finals was already a big surprise along with lucky breaks. In some sense, the Spurs may metaphorically have the imposter syndrome. Probably no one will be mad at the Spurs if they were swepted in the NBA Finals including their own fans, players, coaching/front office staff and ownership.
I highly doubt a small market team like the Spurs for whatever its past glories were will be able to field another historical team in the next ten years which will essentially eat away all of Wemby’s prime NBA playing years. With the rise of prime market teams like the Knicks, the small market teams will become less attractive for premier free agents. Drafting top draft picks hoping to turn them into superstars will take a lot of work, time and high level development talents, which for these reasons I believe it will be a low probability event that the Spurs will be a dynasty in the next ten years. One knock on Wemby’s cards are his best rookie cards, likely the ones that included his autographs, were unlicensed NBA cards which could indirectly affect his cards value going forward. I also think Wemby’s cards are over priced for his predicted historical value as an NBA player. I think there are two realistic ways to play this as someone who is looking to acquire new cards based on this year’s NBA Finals as of now. I think most likely both KAT and the Knicks will ink contracts to at least the 2030 season very soon. If KAT wins a championship this year as a Knicks and he maintain at around the same level of play as he exhibited during this playoff run, he will likely be a 10-time all star, earn more All-NBA honors, get at least 25,000 points, be named to All-NBA Defensive Team or two, contending for an MVP and Defensive Player of the Year and get rid of the “being soft” label for good. KAT being a high draft pick and winning the rookie of the year is simply fulfilling his potentials. Fulfilling full potentials through self-actualization of a society-professed prophecy is usually easier to achieve when it is already accepted by many as somewhat of a truth thereby will likely experience less systematic headwind when attempting to achieve such potentials. Putting all those philosophical points aside, what I find most attractive about KAT cards are the fact that most of his high-end rookie cards are almost unbelievably inexpensive compared to his very realistic potentials thus far. We are talking a low numbered rookie auto patch (RPA) for around 100 USD. I doubt this price level will maintain for much lower though. As someone who invested in a huge number of Jalen Brunson cards in 2018, I have to say I would not add any significant number of additional Brunson intently right now due to skyrocketing prices. As much as I think Jalen Brunson is a great player, at the end of the day, their are certain unwritten stereotypes about second round players that are still very much ingrained in the thinking of many collectors/investors that will ultimately affect how high Brunson cards value will go. Brunson and KAT will both be 30 years old at some point in 2026 yet KAT played in three more NBA seasons than Brunson did. Plus KAT is a stretch center in an almost bruisingless center area hence physically speaking, he will probably be able to play more years in the NBA. Brunson is a point guard who plays a physical post-up game, he will likely be less effective physically speaking in comparison with KAT in the timeframe as time progresses when they are both in the league. Brunson unfortunately will most likely be a hall of famer version of Isaiah Thomas formerly of the Boston Celtics in terms of career longevity trajectory. Realistically, I think KAT will be in the league for 20 years, ultimately elected to the NBA 100th anniversary team, win two to three NBA championships and likely be known as one of the top three centers in his era.