Kobe Bryant is one of my favorite basketball players of all time. In my opinion, his dedication and attitude toward the game were unparalleled. From an investment standpoint, however, I would not invest a large sum of money into Kobe collectibles. It’s not that I do not believe his cards will grow in value. It’s the fact that I believe his cards will grow in value slower than other high potential investments. I won’t discuss any potential off-court issue(s) in deference to my admiration for Kobe the athlete. Strictly from a basketball standpoint however, I think Kobe, being already a borderline NBA top 10 of all-time player, will likely be squeezed out of the list within 10 years and into the top 15-20. In my opinion, Curry, KD, SGA and Jokic all have greater than 50% probability of becoming a top 10 All-time NBA player. All four players won at least one championship ring and an MVP, will probably have more career points than Kobe with Jokic having the lowest probability of surpassing Kobe’s points total at around 50%.
Curry being the greatest pure shooter of all-time is probably already a top 10 player now and he will likely play a few more years. If KD joins the 40,000-point club he will most certainly be a NBA top 10 player of all time. The reality is, Kobe at this moment is probably already outside of the NBA top 10 all-time list. You can make an argument that either Lebron, Kareem or Bill Russell is the GOAT and not Jordan due to their unique accomplishments. Kobe, however, is in essence statistically speaking, a lesser version of Jordan as a player. Although Kareem played against Jordan, he was statistically superior to Jordan in almost every way during the era they both played in the league. Lebron never played in the league against Jordan, however, he is better than Jordan in many career statistical categories. No superstar player had won more NBA championships than Lebron did during the period that Lebron played NBA basketball. Lebron played in a highly fragmented era where there were no dominating superstars better than him. Kevin Durant was probably the second best active player in Lebron’s NBA basketball playing era. Lebron will most likely play for a few more years, that’s probably not the best news for anyone currently playing in the NBA who is trying to be the GOAT or those who are coming to the league aspiring to be the next GOAT. Even at Lebron’s current age, he is still dominating in the playoffs without any superstars or even true stars playing next to him. Lebron is metaphorically working a difficult job while rocking the baby cradle or possibly two at the same time in the future. I think as long as Lebron is playing, the era will still belong to Lebron. Anyone with the same amount of championships either retired or close to retirement and are highly unlikely to win another championship. The relatively young players in the league mostly only have one championship if they have one at all. None of them will likely have more championship than Lebron have before he retires. I believe if Lebron can play another 4-5 years, get 50,000 regular season NBA points, win another championship while playing with his two sons on the same team, Lebron will likely be the GOAT of GOATs. Even if he only accomplish some of these milestones, he will likely be the NBA GOAT within 20 years.
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Here is what I posted previously regarding a similar topic.
“Lebron is unquestionably the most dominating NBA player in the 21st century. It is safe to say the first 30 years of the 21st century in the NBA was dominant by Lebron James. I believe Lebron will retire at least after the 2030 season. If Tom Brady can play to 45, Lebron James definitely can. If Gordie Howe can play 32 years in professional hockey and retire at 52, so can Lebron if he wanted to. I believe Lebron can play another 7-10 years at an above average level. Kobe might arguably not even be the greatest Laker of all time and the Lakers produced about half of the top 10 players.
The bottomline is, when things are based on relative comparisons versus absolute, everything must be taken into consideration. I believe Kobe collectibles will not generate as high of growth on returns as some other similar investments. The scary part is, I believe Lebron could get one or two more championships. Jordan and Lebron are both naturally gifted and hardworking, the difference is Lebron was already deemed “chosen one” in high school, has great continuity without the distractions of multiple retirements. There is a reasonable likelihood Kobe will fall from the Top 15 due to his only one MVP and being the second best player on a team for years. Lebron was the best player on all of his championship teams. While Jordan had two other 75th anniversary players on his team, Lebron only had one other 75th anniversary player.
There are only so many players that can fit into a certain “top” something list, it is important to continue a pipeline of investments in order to be successful in this game in the long run. It is important to do so because GOATs may change overtime and current GOATs may be supplanted by new GOATs hence keeping the pipeline of new rookie card investments help build a formidable moat against trend changes. Eventually someone is going to sit on the top of the GOAT pyramid, ultimately it’s just a matter of who. You won’t always be right or wrong, second guess yourself doesn’t help either. You invest into what you invested in for a reason. I typically don’t change my mind on investments but I do protect myself through diversification and hedging. I typically reevaluate their GOATistics periodically to determine whether they will become GOATesque or not. I frequently study the GOAT list of the sheep or their bellwether to arbitrage between goat s*** and milk balls. Selling cards because you want to typically means you will lose money regardless for what cause. People who truly collect cards in the first place love cards that have signs of becoming heirlooms and will most likely not even consider parting with these cards until they reach some ridiculous certain 1952 card value level.
That means will most likely create volatility in card is one of the greatest-of-all-times (GOAT or at the very minimum a once in a generation talent and/or there is something special about the card itself that was later discovered that had nothing to do with the behaviors of the athlete. As mentioned earlier, I prefer to invest in lower valued versions of alternative assets that have all the right attributes because it allows me to free up cash by diversifying my risk into numerous smaller investments while keeping my portfolio liquid at the same time aiming for a higher expected value. Hence because the GOAT of a sport is literally just one person or a handful of people at the most, a title that take frequently decades of work to achieve and is often only publicly recognized and granted with consensus years later.
One would argue identifying a potential GOAT who likely had to be benchmarked against hundreds of thousands of contemporaries and predecessors in the few popular sports that actually have a large sports cards collecting fan base, the premium for the massive amount of effort and resources that are poured into this search is akin to finding a specific atom with just the right amount of electrons, protons and neutrons in whatever its required final form be it ionization, fusion or whatever else in a forest in the dark racing against time and with a copious amount of other hunters now that they smelled the money from a potentially $100 billion dollar future industry, have to be huge for all this expenditure to be worth it. Most people like winners and matters with certain desirable attributes, some people are actually willing to pay for these features.”