I have been frequently right about my predictions. Even when I wasn’t 100% right, my logic was usually correct. Invariably people will ask me how I was able to make accurate predictions consistently. Listen, you probably heard the saying many times, “it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog.” You wouldn’t be picking the winners between something and something else if you didn’t think they were some what peers or at least deemed at somewhat as near peers. When all things being equal, the difference between “winner(s)” and “loser(s)” for a particular event are in the “operating system” and the ecosystem that support that operating system. Winning and losing are not permanent state(s) of beings but rather states of minds. There are simply no real good reasons for one of the competitors to be losing consistently and over time when the contests are between two peers or near peers except for the state of mind difference. The other thing is, after winning so many times, there is an extremely high probability that the winning competitor might get bored, sympathetic or just careless and making winning one against the said competitor much easier.
The sad part is if the perennial contest loser, a peer or near peer of the consistent winner of the contests and all things being equal, still haven’t figured out why the said competitor continuously loses after losing so many times, it’s hard to explain the situation with a “hardware” issue, it’s most likely a “software” issue. Winners have the right attitude that is needed to win. They will frequently learn from their experiences, build up their own competencies, mitigate weaknesses and create the right ecosystem to support their sustainable success. It takes the right internal operating system that is frequently powered by the right attitude to seek the help and resources needed to succeed in the long-term. Yes, the most opportune opportunities do not come every day and not everyone is handed the best cards in a poker game. Ultimately it’s really the players in the game that have to adapt to the situation and environment they are in. Whether the person is prepared for it or not will easy show through results. Winners usually are magnanimous. They are not doing this simply because they are kind. They are doing this because giving other people an opportunity and more specifically an option or pathway to fulfill their own desires make both of their goals intricately tied together. This is how you create an ecosystem around your operating system.
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How to consistently pick winners.
You want the developers in your ecosystem to develop around your operating system and a chain reaction of other Apps and APIs that develop based on the rules and protocols created by such refinements, so on and so forth. You have to continue to improve and be the better you in order to be the better you and better other people to better yourself even more. In this case, being magnanimous to others is simply developing your own core competencies. What are you talking about? What does any of this have to do with picking winners? Game recognizes game. For you to pick winners, you have to know the tendency of winners and how to win. Simply put it, you have to be a winner to know how to pick winners. Sometimes when you are a winner, you can directly influence perennial losers into evergreen winners. Perception sometimes is reality yet not all realities are perceived to be realities. But if you are a global Top Ten-er graduate with a lot of accolades, people will always perceive you for what your potential might be, a real winner. That self-fulfilling prophecy is a lot easier to fulfill when you get all kinds of “respect passes,” resources and accesses. As long as you are half worthy of it, you will probably be a winner. Vice versa, it might be a lot harder to succeed sustainably even when you succeed with a Pyrrhic victory initially, you are already set up for high probability of long-term failure.
In summation, I know a winner when I see it because it takes a winner to know a winner. If you can’t see a winner when you see a winner, you probably is not a long-term winner. It sounds ridiculous and arrogant, however, it’s probably the truth. These are instincts are etched into the judgmental reflects for quick decision making. These judgment decisions are not always right, but they are right at a high clip that make everyone respect such decisions enough to alter their best interests in favor of your own which makes your best interests theirs too. Is a rim protector just a shot blocker or are they opponent’s shot selection alternators and possibly turn defensive stops into fast break points. Know who you are and who you aren’t before you make important decisions. This is precisely why I personally believe it is much wiser for the average person to buy a major US index fund rather than pick their own stocks. That extra 20% return that a hedge fund may earn over your 10% annual average return is a small price to pay to take advantage of a system that is designed for everyone to win within a certain range and for ample consumption to occur with relative freedom and contentment. This is precisely why I personally prefer the expected value method in investing in alternative assets by pipelining thereby taking into account the alphas and betas. Become a winner first, winners will gravitate toward you.