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1. A certain East Asia country becoming number one in total GDP.
For obvious reasons, I won’t name that country by name but I think everyone knows who that is. Current prevailing total GDP reporting for a give country is based on real GDP which on paper exclude inflation and deflation from base year. I see this real GDP reporting methodology as a lagging indicator as economies that are experiencing deflation may temporarily experience a rise in real GDP due to lower producer input prices/PPI and lower price pass through to consumers. When competition become cutthroat, wage decreases, foreign capital flight occurs in a lagging manner a few years later (due to switching cost mostly due to fixed investments, exit barriers and political reasons), the real GDP growth will be in big trouble regardless of selective it is being measure. The other issue is there are no weights assigned to the intangibles that actually drive a modern economy. Long-term deflations means uncertainty and uninvestability as the whole point of investing is to generate higher future returns. If something cost less tomorrow than today and producers are price takers with massive volume, consumers can afford to wait to buy the big ticket items at a significantly cost a while longer when they actually need it.
The two most important pieces in GDP calculation should be consumption and private investments. Consumption and private investments in most normal economies private the most jobs and are the biggest piece by far in revenue generation. Whoever is building billions of un-dwelled living quarters that technically cannot be owned by private individuals for a population in significant decline and at a 1 to 3 human to house ratio and approximately 1 to 10 household members to house ratio obviously cannot be criticized. However, the aftermath will be what it is, no one will be able to cover up.
Massive government spending as one of the primary derives of GDP by certain unnamed country per the above usually come with gigantic amount of debts which raises questions about quality of GDP growth. Import and export ratio in terms of trade surplus or deficit calculations also yield strong signs of how the trade surpluses come about. In conjunction with calculation on the profitability of such exports and its source of profits be it geographical regions or governmental subsidies are additional telltale signs of the quality of its GDP growth. Not adjusting for debt fueled GDP growth when it should be taken into account is another indication certain unnamed country is exploiting loop holes again. Unsurprising as its trustworthy levels are at all-time lows. The real GDP calculations also do not account for the percentage of people who actually smile on the streets, are genuinely happy with their lives, buy mostly foreign goods, refuse to have children nor ambitions and its elite moving their wealth to Western nations. Everyone wants the best possible life. You can’t possibly tell me consumers ignore price-quality ratio for patriotism of their own country’s products in the long-term. Consumers in all countries are quite savvy when it comes to stuff like this. You will also have a hard time convincing me that Purchase Power Parity (PPP) or GDP is the right measure for your country’s economic situation when it is a relatively closed-off country/economy with lack of international competition in its domestic economy, products that are made come with a side of fraud/unethicalness/slave labor/populating/potential illness, lack of freedom, human rights and censorship where people literally go disappear forever, lose organs or appear in confinement without their families and friends even knowing for exercising simple freedoms that people in Western societies take for granted. No amount of bot comments or subsidized influencers gathering in some far-flung city of the abovementioned country can change what it is. PPP is particularly ridiculous as modern human beings don’t consume for survival, they consume for lifestyle. PPP and GDP current calculation methodology no longer reflect the survival to lifestyle shift in human societal evolution where sentiments are more important than manipulatable data from non-transparent, non-credible and non-ethical sources.
Contrary to no-TPC popular belief, the most serious future issue the abovementioned country will experience will be disintegration of its made-up “ethics unity” no matter how hard it tries to force language and cultural unity. There are tens of thousands of distinct languages in that country. Most of the country is in reality made up of tens of thousands of different ethnicity groups packaged into one supposed majority ethnicity group to enhance ethics unity. Most of these languages are so incomprehensible to each other their linguistic difference are no smaller than the linguistic differences between various European languages. They also can’t censure these things because many of these ethnics groups have spiritual sanctuary in nearby sovereign countries where most of their compatriots are based. Their DNA bloodlines are also quite pure comparing with those in the West because of xenophobic tendacies in the said country throughout history. Most of these people also have a lot of beef with each other where racism and stereotypes are rampant. As soon the common prosperity and they can’t feed themselves again which have been a repeating theme throughout their history, they will start to rip each other’s throats again. For this to happen, it will only take a temporary collapse in their system, a few more month of unpaid wages for securities personnel and for them to be hungry for a while, for young male to not have jobs and for some kind of leader to emerge who also takes advantage of the complex external geopolitical situation. All of these things are already well under their way some of these are pretty much already completed.
2. A certain territory next to the said East Asia country in point number one will be occupied.
No, see point number one. Also read about the collapse of this country’s Northern, former superpower, big brother and how it collapse. Not exactly the same reasoning but similar enough to repeat again in the next few decades. If you have People or Socialism in the name of your country, perhaps you should consider making their lives happier as a top priority which doing the exact contrary and only benefiting the few who end up allocating their family and wealth in Western countries anyway, may probably won’t end too well for your country no manner how much you monitor your own people or try to ban them from leaving.
3. US will lose its sole super power status.
No for all the reasons stated in points one and two. Probably not in this century and next century majority of human societies might not even be exclusively on Earth. Two oceans, no natural enemies, seemingly unlimited resources, lots of allies, significant immigration from foreign elites, strongest military and seemingly unlimited wealth generation all says it will be impossible for it to lose its sole superpower throne on Earth.
4. AI, robots, virtual reality and other technological advances will virtually replace human beings.
The biggest issue that will prevent any of that from truly replacing human beings is ethics. Yes, current technology has technological limitations on the human nuanced nitty gritty actions. Yes, decision makers need to ensure the transition stage is not sudden but rather gradual to prevent societal issues. The ethics issue is real because ethics is a code of conduct that make the human society rule based and not a free for all. That means in free, democratic societies it has to consider the interest of all equally or risk social upheaval while in less free and democratic societies it has to consider risks to the ruling class from the masses. There are many restrictions on AI today due to ethical reasons that can make asking AI to provide information from analyzed data on real statistics like life saving truth such as which neighborhood and demographics to avoid from a risk probability standpoint virtually impossible to find. Yet those are the things what AI can be the most useful: to provide heartless cold truth most humans are unable to say out loud due to social contract reasons living in Western societies. If such things are confronted face-on, like putting someone or a demographic group on a performance improvement plan (PIP), then true societal evolutionary stage will occur and those that don’t comply, like being on a PIP, will eventually be asked to leave. That is what MEI, meritocracy based diversity should be all about. Some people will say, it is a free country with no prevalent exit bans, if you don’t like it, you are welcome to move to the country mentioned in point number one. You may just end up enjoying the amount of freedom, common wealth/prosperity, mental hospital/jail stays where they tube feed you an unlimited amount of schizophrenic medicine while electro-shock your brains for saying “crazy things” while also “borrowing your organs” and the unlimited amount free speech and “exercise through labor and rehabilitation” they say you can exercise and enjoy over there while your family and friends frantically looking for you only to also be enjoying the same thing if they were looking for you if they lived there as well….XD
5. Space exploration will peak.
Everything has stages. The pioneer stage is usually a small group of people. Due to technological and resource limitations as well as geopolitical divide on Earth, space exploration will take time for the first stage to be complete. Due to the same resource limitations on Earth, once the final significant geopolitical impediment is resolved on earth, that’s when the sole winner will like devote all of Earth’s resources through market force driven “voluntary international collaborations” to ensure the technological advancements and resources are there for full-throated, merit-based, natural selection based evolutionary migration into space. Earth could still contain the majority of the non-selected and be used as a dumping group for space garbage. Evolution and natural selection await for no one. Either you get on the PIP and improve or you will be left out by history. One of the reasons why certain demographics groups are so upset with the teachings of certain elite tertiary institutions that teach, promote and patronize human-made ethos contrary to evolutionary logics.
6. A certain consensus number one university in the world will continue to be the consensus number one university in the world.
I hate to say this but the school is no longer exclusive and pure (has been deflowered, no longer sacred nor sanctimonious) in the eyes of certain people due to diversity related past overcorrections and Supreme Court admission rulings. When other elite schools started to offer free tuition or are in the process of doing so and banned legacy admissions process, exclusivity probably got thrown out of the window all together. The biggest baggage is its origin of being a private, undergraduate liberal arts studies focused college for the colonial era, pre-industrial elites that frequently ruffled the feathers of the meritocracy in new world of STEMS and graduate level research that are often state funded. Granted liberal arts is a big money maker in Western societies and is a spiritual pillar to liberal freedoms, the weight of its importance will ultimately decline in this century however. And yes, the switching cost for others to no longer view it as the consensus number one is minimal to nothing and there are legitimately at least five S or S-tier schools in the US and two in the UK that is near its level and will exceed its level in a few years, already is at its level or had already exceeded its level.
Now the last barrier for that university to lose its consensus number one status is the barely standing facade of a gate. History will likely view their biggest failures to maintain its position as the mesh-mash strategy. Trying to be in the extremes of prestige and rigid social status gatekeeper while ultimately have its defenses broken yielding to social pressure of non-elite/purely merit and status based decision making. If one already anticipated this will be the ending, one probably could have prepared this occasion much better than the forced hands approach it is currently enduring. While the new billionaire is now the trillionaire, this university is still dabbling in the mid double-digit billion endowment range no where near close to exceed triple-digit billion endowment range in the next decade nearly three decades of being in this range. One could argue that it never had an absolute advantage over other schools as it might literally be a replica of a school from England and that even its comparative advantages have disappeared relative to other schools. Even those who may have graduated from the school likely don’t agree with many of its values. Its biggest challenge could be if in the future either a school decided to leave the Ivy League or if an invited member to the Ivy League publicly reject the invitation. The dangerous to the top and bottom of the schools within the league will be most significant while the middle of the pack will probably think about exiting themselves. The disdain for how stuck up this school is and its now perceived bandwagoning nature is stronger than ever will likely will not bode well for the future of the school. The day when the top US leader graduated from its neighboring STEMs focused school and a degree from a liberal arts school, the importance of science meritocracy will likely hit its peak and the US will likely near its win against its existential nemesis.
7. The future majority recognized number one university in the world will not be a US Ivy-Plus school.
Yes, see point number six. Most likely, it will be a STEMs focused school with world-class liberal arts studies as well.
8. The collectible cards market will not exceed $100 billion dollars and collectibles in general will not exceed $1 trillion dollars.
Yes, the key to this will be the market penetration rate of cards as an important media for conveying messages. When literally every marketing strategy also includes creating a cards product because people love cards.
9. Crypto currency market will not permanently decline as centralization occurs.
The technology side from the crypto currency boom like block chain will probably still strive, the rest probably not. Sovereign governments who have currency issuing authorities within their jurisdiction will have every incentive to digitize their own currency in a centralized manner. The potential instability, criminal, moral and speculative/gambling aspects of crypto will likely be too much for authorities to ignore. I foresee regulations will not be enough to save crypto currency from eventually and mostly merging into digitized versions of the national currency system.
10. There won’t be another world war.
In whatever forms, there likely will eventually be one that ultimately translate into a new paradigm to further human integration and allow the human race to reach its goals.
I will write extensively on each of these ten topics in upcoming posts.