Yes, yes and yes. Ohtani will likely also break Barry Bonds’ fourth consecutive MVPs record as well. Bonds will likely not be considered a GOAT due to the main issue that prevented him from getting into the hall of fame and for not getting the magical MLB 3,000 hits number by a few dozens hits. Ohtani is probably one of the if not the most liked baseball statistical superstars in the history of the sports. Ohtani always never played in Bonds’ era. If we compare Ohtani with Aaron Judge, yes, Judge is probably the more powerful hitter with higher home run peaks, however, Judge at 34 years old has similar injury trajectory as Mike Trout except Trout had already hit nearly MLB 300 home runs before the injury issues essentially slowed his career down and Trout was only around 27 years old at the time. At the same age, Judge barely hit MLB 100 home runs in the majors. Trout already at around 420 home runs and only around 34 years old and has four more contract years with the Angels after this year will likely reach 500 plus home runs by the end of his career. The real on the field related issue with Judge in terms of breaking the home run record is age. He will likely return to the field in September of this year missing most if not all of the post season. He also is an elite defender which means the Yankees can’t afford to make him the DH which means increased injury risks. Oblivious he is not like Ohtani who also pitches which means for Judge to be the GOAT he really need to earn it via offense only which he will likely not be able to do so. All this is to mean in Ohtani’s era there will be no one who is overall better than him perhaps not even offensively better than him.
Ohtani is turning 32 this season, however, due to his baseball focused mindset and conditioning, he will likely play at elite levels for another 10 years and probably can play three to five years after that. He is likely getting 320 career home runs this season. If we expect an average of 35 home runs a season for the next ten seasons, we are talking about 350 additional home runs. If you count an additional five non-prime career years of 20 home runs a year, Ohtani can realistically break Bonds’s career home run record and likely the seven MVPs record. Given Ohtani is literally a prime money maker for the MLB, Ohtani will likely be able to get records by trying to achieve different things every season that means for one of these reasons he could also focus on just the single season home run record which he has a realistic chance of achieving if he only DH and nothing else. Unfortunately Judge will likely not be in the same position to do so. Ohtani will also likely get 3,000 hits as well. The more important thing is, Ohtani could realistically contend for the World Series championship every season and could probably win 5-7 in his career, Bonds didn’t even win one and Judge likely already near the end of his prime also has none while Ohtani already has two, one beating Judge’s Yankees the other one probably one of the greatest if not the greatest World Series win of all-time. When you add Ohtani’s WBC wins and its iconic moment plus his two-way hitting and pitching, it will be extremely difficult to argue Ohtani is any less GOAT than Babe Ruth when Ohtani played against professionals not against people who also had other jobs on the side. Ohtani also is a global superstar who is help MLB expand the game globally.
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Here is what I wrote about this and similar topics previously.
“The reality is they are unfortunately playing in the same era as prime Ohtani, Judge and arguably the most talented era in MLB history. Baseball just became super exciting again with all the rule changes, global stars, competitive teams and various intriguing storylines. Baseball as a sport appears to be growing significantly globally. The World Baseball Classic becoming popular, baseball’s return to the Olympics and the fact that baseball is spreading from Asia bellwether pop culture centers like Japan, South Korea and Japan into Southeast Asia is a very important trend for the sport. Because baseball and cricket are very similar, there is a good chance it could get a piece of that 2.5 billion fan market.
All this to say is that because the much larger pie for all, I think rookie cards of these four players are good value. I tend to think baseball has the highest career longevity of all the sports for players who are good at what they do. It is not exceptionally uncommon to see baseball players in the MLB play to their mid 40s. However, the players who play to their mid 40s may likely are chasing something record wise. Many of these players start in the league in their very early 20s. Hence when I am buying rookie cards of new MLB players, I typically look for guys who make to the league early, play a premium position, has height and can either hit or pitching or both with power. Of course I look at their minor league stats as well to analyze their potentials. And yes, because my rookie cards pipeline strategy also entails maximizing upside risk and with almost insignificant downside risk when I can buy maybe a box of 4,000 of inderrated new player rookie cards for less than 100 dollars, I am able to also get rookie cards of Patrick Mahomes, Steph Curry and for sure Aaron Judge when they first came out. Of course, most of these cards won’t be worth the storage cost after a while within a given time range, hence every year I either donate those cards or give them away to friends.
I think that within 30 years there will be a *clean new all-time home run record given progressively better training, conditioning and athletics nutrition programs. Many players are able to regularly hit 50 and occasionally 60 home runs a season at the moment already. I think it is doable currently for a power hitter comes into the league at 20, and starts hitting on average 50 home runs at 26 for 10 years and average around 23 home runs for the other 12 years in the league. I also tend to believe if the all-time home run record can be broken the single season home run record can also be broken likely by the same player. I also think that player will also be able to get 3,000 hits as well. As great as Shohei Ohtani is, I think there will likely be a better American version of him within the next 50 years given the high athlete percentage in total US population. I believe two-way players in the MLB will become much more common in the future hence traditional one-way pitchers may not be as valued by teams as before. The superstars who aspire to be GOATs in baseball and really in many major sports leagues, barring early career-ending injuries can play 20 plus years and typically is expected to play 15-20 years in order to chase records and greatness. That means at any point once they become established as at least a GOATesque trajectory player, their cards will be at somewhat peaked levels within a given range. Obviously if they become GOAT, their cards may very well appreciate even more from their cards’ peak values, however, if they don’t at least maintain GOATesque overall career level at the conclusion of their professional sports career, their cards’ values may drop from the peak value gradually.
I can’t say this enough. GOATs may change from time to time. Investing in a player because the player is the current GOAT is a losing proposition. The smarter move is to form a pipeline of inexpensive investments that may have high potentials on a periodic and continuously basis. Liquidity is king. You won’t have much bargaining powers if you are not liquid. You won’t be able to wait things out because they need cash flow. Being illiquid is an easy way to be taken advantage is. Even if someone is willing to buy something illiquid from you (smart investors will likely do research on your current financial and overall situation), you may have to sell your assets at heavy discounts. Part of having FU money is the ability to say no when saying no is advantageous to you. Not having the ability to do so may be detrimental to your financial well-being. This is precisely why I don’t recommend regular people to spend a large sum of money on illiquid assets that will hurt their cash flow significantly. What most people may not realize is momentum begets more momentum. When you are up and everyone sees it, people are likely to help you financially. When you are down, regular people will be hesitant to do so because their financial resources are limited and they can’t afford to gamble on you paying them back. The financial investors and institutions are likely even more stringent on the risk evaluation side.”