Let’s make a few things clear. Yes, Japanese Pokemon cards likely came out a few years before the English versions, however, the English versions were likely the most important releases for the franchise. The 1st Edition Base Set, Shadowless and the Base Set Unlimited were all released in 1999 with various supposed print run duration. I consider all three the rookie cards of the original Pokemon. I also believe the print run size for all three releases in modern print run terms relatively small. I also believe the current premium on the 1st Edition and Shadowless Base Set prints are egregiously overvalued compared to the Base Set. I equate 1st Edition Base Set to the Bowman 1st set in baseball cards were probably only. select group of people bought and collected these hence worth they are worth a bit more in certain circles. The Shadowless is like a Bowman 1st inexpensive insert subset that’s likely not going to be worth as much as a regular Bowman 1st card of the same player in the long-run. The Base Set is like the regular rookie cards that many people purchased.
English version of Pokemon cards were a kind of a novelty at the time of first release, the end-collectors of these cards were not adults and the cards themselves were meant to be played. No one probably thought the cards would be worth this much like it is now. The retention rate of these cards were likely extremely low for the Base Set Unlimited. The conditions on the retained cards likely were mostly in the lightly to moderately played conditions. I believe the secondary market was likely much stronger for 1st Edition Base Set and hence they were retained at a much higher rate and likely maintained in much better conditions on average. Despite the likely smaller print run, a very significant graded population for 1st Edition Base Set and Shadowless cards exist. Even if we presume the seemingly plausible rumor that 1st Edition Base Set was only printed for three days, I believe the 1st Edition Base Set to Base Set Unlimited print size ratio may be somewhere around 1:20. The difference is that I believe the 1st Edition Base Set were recognized for its potentials at the time of release by those who bought them during release or shortly after release on the secondary markets therefore those sets were on average in much better conditions. I live in America which means I have the rights to exercise reasonable free speech as permitted by the law. All posted content(s) on this website are my opinions only which means they should not be taken as advice of any kind. I am a non-celebrity, non-public figure posting anonymously for my own entertainment on a website that is not affiliated with any individual(s), organization(s) and/or any entity/entities.
Let’s talk about my 1999 Pokemon Base Set collection.
There likely was a much higher likelihood of these boxes being kept sealed versus Base Set Unlimited. While I still believe 1st Edition Base Set is much more rare, I believe the retention rate was significantly lower for the Base Set Unlimited Set and cards. Hence I believe the around 15X valuation of a 1st Edition versus an Unlimited Base Set may not be justified from a rarity standpoint. My guesstimate would be a 7.5X valuation is probably more reasonable at this time. I also believe in another 40 years or so, the valuation ratio will come down to around 2.5 to 4X. I believe people are opening the Base Set Unlimited boxes and packs at a much higher clip as it is more affordable to do so versus the 1st Edition Base Set. As many of the collectors today are not professional investors, many fail to grasp the premium some people are willing to pay to own an early set of something. Because all three of the above-mentioned sets came out in the same year with only likely superficial, non-core artwork or substantive playing differences and likely were designed by the same people using the same machines and sold in the same channels, I think in the long-run people will see this a multiplier issue rather than a classification issue.
The multiplier issue will likely be mostly resolved by estimating supply and demand. What most people don’t realize yet is the original sets will continue to benefit from all future releases as they were the one and only originals. One of the frequently asked question in almost anything is the history of something. Which one do you think will get talked about more, the first few releases or the 72 release out of 100 plus releases? I believe Pokemon will likely have over 1,000 English set releases in the future and probably tens of thousands of sets releases when you count all languages. I believe there are over 2 billion Pokemon fans around the world approximately 30% of the world population. Pokémon’s ever increasing cross promotions allow it to add new fan bases and along with its various mediums including Pokemon Go, Anime, Cards, Toys, Tournaments and more, I believe the pipeline will continue to grow.
I think when cards related alternative assets become more mainstream with a large amount of mainstream investors investing into the field, more rational and less sentiments will be used in valuation. Aesthetic appeal of a card may be important, but how much more important is it over the fundamental economics? I believe one of the biggest arbitrage opportunities right now in investing in Pokemon cards is the concept of rookie cards. Many people in this space do not necessarily understand why that is important from a time value of money standpoint. Many collectors in this space are more on the nostalgic, artwork eye appeal and playability. In reality, a large population of the high-end investors or collectors do not play in any Pokemon tournaments nor even care about how it is being played. The divide between pure collectors/investors, the Anime watchers and the game players be it in electronic or physical card game format are huge. The cards are based on the games not the anime hence you almost never see Ash in any of the vintage cards except perhaps promos. I don’t mean to be condescending or anything. You may feel the same way that I feel if you were in almost everything in the very beginning. In terms of the cards hobby, I believe one’s perspective may change if one witness parents’ basement dwellers turn into nouveaux riches overnight with certain attributes akin to most lottery winners.