I believe the winning strategy for the US in the Iran War is by enforcing a de facto no-fly zone around the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) by incrementally and eventually taking all seven of the islands Iran controls in the SOH. This will allow the US to control the entire strait and allow allies to over time contract a defensive barrier around Iran’s side of the strait. SOH is reasonable deep but not that deep around 60 to 100 meters this means artificial island can be built without too much technical difficulties. Realistically, creating a canal across the UAE is likely in the hundreds of billions because it requires going through the Hajar Mountains. However I think a combined river flow, pipeline and some other changes may be able to cut the cost to less than $100 billion which in my opinion when you consider the strategic importance of such a move, is probably very much worth it. Once Iran is softened up, it may provide an access to the Caspian Sea to those who soften it up which will likely have huge geopolitical consequences specifically impede the Arctic Bear with a water beltway and constrict the Giant Lizard with a road that leads to no where. Historically the Persians played the Giant Lizard like an animal impeding them from contacting the Europeans and new lands which held them back for millenniums. Small potatoes in geopolitics sense like Cuba will likely not be able to withstand the turmoil much longer especially once the last Castro of influence is no longer there.
The US has more than enough nature resources it ever can use and it is also in an increasingly more strategic relationship not just with other resource rich nations like Venezuela but also throughout the developing world. The biggest piece of myth regarding the Giant Lizard is it is not particularly superpower level resource rich and much of its infrastructures are on the coastlines which are very susceptible to mishaps if it goes that far. The Giant Lizard’s best path to development was to stay quite for the next few decades and copy/reverse engineer the best technology over time without much R&D cost to them while utilizing its massive consumer market to incubate ideas into successes. However, that was not what happened. Instead, its consumers have downgraded so much on their personal economics that most innovative ideas can not be viably tested over there and foreign markets are flooded with its cheap goods to the point that many advanced nations are not only accusing it of dumping but are actively doing something about it through various punitive trade measures. There are two very strategic waterways potentially up for grabs the West have yet to control: Caspian Sea and Black Sea. The Black Sea is relatively not in play due to the Thanksgiving Bird. This bird has annoyed pretty much everyone throughout history yet it is currently at one of its most vulnerable times in its history. Both the Arctic Bear and the Giant Lizard are suffering from real economic, inner issues and geopolitical issues.
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How will the Iran and Ukraine Wars end.
The Arctic Bear has its seemingly never ending war that is likely going to devastate its economy while the Giant Lizard despite its positive yet questionable GDP growth numbers have structural issues that it likely cannot fix within its current regime system. What many pundits do not talk about is while it is not fighting major wars and also haven’t fought one for nearly five decades, haven’t won’t a world-class level warfare for over seven decades and literally never fought a warfare with advanced modern weapons, it’s biggest issue is its enormous internal securities spendings via the Public Security Bureau (PSB) and People’s Armed Police (PAP). The cost of these two expenditures have increased exponentially in the next decade. The downward economic deflation, stagnant private investments and foreign direct investments, fixed assets price declines and capital flight spiraling out of control also means significantly more required funding for PSB and PAP. It also needs to devote much of its resources to monitoring its own people even more tightly to ensure “harmony” within its realms. The other major issue most Western media fails to talk about is the decline of the Giant Lizard Land’s population flight from the far Northeastern in Manchuria to the south. This means it will likely need to spend more on guarding its border which ironically is what the Arctic Bear use to worry about its Far East being occupied by the people of the Giant Lizard.
Unfortunately for the Giant Lizard, its cost of technological acquisition has significantly increased but due to Sanctions and export control measures, they will still lag behind the West for some time despite what others may be saying. There is a decent chance that not only will much of its industries will be strategically banned by the West, those that may produce in the West that utilized the acquisition shell then build model will likely come under intense scrutiny as well. The most fatal mistake the Giant Lizard made was showing its hands too early and now it realizes it still need the West for almost everything including its financial systems, its markets and its technology. This is not something some international ranking system that give its institutions possibly injuries high rankings based on potentially dubious metrics can change. High quality pipelines of every sort takes time, effort, resources and a conducive environment to develop. Being Iran’s two biggest supporters, the issues these two powers are experiencing will likely mean Iran will most likely be alone for at the very least the next five years as neither of the above-mentioned powers have the bandwidth to start a regional war at this time. Both players are also quite suspicious of each other especially due to historical mistrusts and territory disputes currently kept under wrap in the Arctic Bear’s Far East.
The Giant Lizard also has exposure to Middle East in its West, India to its South and its vulnerabilities to the first island chain and the Taiwan issue to its East which leave much of its biggest metropolitans exposed. It’s biggest potential issues right now are potential more economic sanctions on some of its Southern Eastern coast cities and the growing economic balance between the North and the South which will likely created ethnic tensions as its predominate ethnic group is a mishmash of loosely connected people who speak their own distinct dialects whom the Giant Lizard grouped them together as one people based on “cultural affinity.” In reality, the Southern people are genetically and culturally Vietnamese while its Northern “compatriots” are true East Asians. Many of the Central Plains people living on the Giant Lizard Land literally still live in caves. When you think about it the war in Afghanistan last for around twenty years and achieved almost nothing except securing the Giant Lizard’s borders and giving it stability to grow its economics. That war costed the US trillions of dollars. The current war with Iran is much more economical considering its potential returns in economics and geopolitics. I think less than $40 billion USD was a very efficient spend considering the devastation it caused Iran and its allies and the potential reward for winning. The battle with the Giant Lizard is an existential battle for ideals and decency as well as technology, economics and geopolitical leadership.
As for the Ukraine war, drones have become the game changer. If the Arctic Bear is not able to hang on to its naval fleet which only has one aircraft carrier that is conventional and is mostly not serviceable for the last decade or so and is probably near decommission age, it will most likely lose control of Crimea. The Soviets lost due to their failing economy, the Arctic Bear will likely suffer the same fate if it loses the war or fight to a stalemate which will likely mean a win for a Ukraine and NATO’s expansion deeper into the East. This will be the most unwelcome sign for both Iran and the Giant Lizard as the attention and resources of the free world will be laser focused on them very soon. I think the Giant Lizard’s issues will exacerbate as it focus more on the discontent of its own people and will not be able to fully focus on external affairs. The outside forces especially those on Taiwan will likely go even further on its pursuit of independence during this time. It will be interesting to see how the KMT will end up, merged with one of the fake KMT parties created in the Giant Lizard land or possibly exile themselves back to the Giant Lizard land. The Arctic Bear was created by gobbling lands no one else really wanted but it is a declining power holding the world’s largest landmass by far with lots of resources yet it has an economy the size of three Taiwan except Taiwan is growing nearly 10% a year and the Arctic Bear’s GDP is barely growing at all when Russia is nearly 500 times bigger in landmass and about five times bigger in population….As for Iran, I foresee it one day forging an amicable relationship with a certain state sitting next to the Mediterranean Sea in the Middle East that it currently and previously despised dearly. Its spring with the West will also mean possible return of the Dynasty and an end of the Giant Lizard’s significant influence in the nearby regions, a significant blow to its power projection capabilities. As for Ukraine, it has already sign many resource deals with Western capital and will likely fully integrate into NATO and join the European Union after it wins the war via defeat of the Arctic Bear outright, fight the Arctic Bear to a stalemate or sign an agreement that allow it to achieve status quo ante Crimea bellum. When that happens, the Arctic Bear may disintegrate into a shell of itself.