Yes, I think there is a high likelihood of this happening soon. Population growth is dramatically slowing down in the world and will likely peak then shrink in a few decades. Much of the industrialized world is either already experiencing population decline or is experiencing slowing population growth. The real issue is the fact that wealth can’t really be distributed more evenly because doing so would likely destroy the balance in the system as we know it today. It’s not about giving money to the common people, it’s about giving the talented, elites, the rich and powerful reasons to continue to innovate and push society forward. If the common people were to be just handed money undeservingly, systematically for long periods of time, not only will you see high inflations negating the whole distribution, the uncommons will likely rebel against the very same system that made that a non-poor in the first place.
Being an uncommon is not just about having money, it’s about having attributes that runs contrary to most lottery winners. In other words, it’s not just about having money, it’s the whole force multiplier of being born into an uncommon ecosystem, material wealth or not, that allow one to pick up things like manners, worldview, elite confidence with rechargeable whenever it’s low, world class education, mentors, success ambiance, elite education, elite networks, elite historical pedigree from thousands of years ago and so on. But you know what will work and has been tested? A form of economic crutches like being on food stamps that not only helps people but make the uncommon still feel superior due to the label. I think many uncommons may even fundraise for those who need these types of crutches. This is why the UBI will likely work in the West on a small scale and supplemental basis to unemployment insurance, welfare and other social safety nets. In fact, it will likely serve as a replacement for unemployment insurance because do many people will see their roles being reduced by technology advances. The government could also create provisions around the UBI that will maintain social order while a large number of people are unemployed and have nothing else to keep them metaphorically chained up. Obviously these people will likely be even more dependent on society than ever due to lack of practical experience working on the job. They may not even know how to communicate persuasively and convincingly or have the skills to survive a hypothetical apocalypse anymore but that’s beside the point. Tradeoffs at the end of the day are all about what benefits one could gain by doing something even if it’s just to mitigate risk.
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This is what I posted previously regarding this and similar topic(s):
“This is an era of rapid changes and self-preservation. We are talking about potential migration to other planets, space exploration, AI that could change our world, humanoid robotics and more. In this day of inflationary pressure and ever increasing changes, the regular person needs a way to invest their money safely and easily. Once that occurs through a 401(k) or IRA, the next step is try to find something that you are passionate about and can make money from. I will say it again, based on my experience working in many of these fields and knowing the speed of mass technological deployment, adaptation and integration numerous changes into daily lives, it will literally take decades. Even when they are fully implemented, in most democracies and market-oriented economies, there will be at least a decade where the holdouts from such technological advancements can still live reasonably comfortable without adaptation of such as advancements. Realistically, anyone who has already reached adulthood and is currently in the workforce will not be severely impact by any of this.
Yes, you will likely need to learn to use some of these tools. Yes, your field may lose jobs from these advancements. Yes, you may even lose your job from such advancements. However, at this stage, you will likely get away with learning only surface level/superficial knowledge about these tools and do just fine. Yes, your field may be lose jobs and you may need to find a new job at some point, however, due to the lack of uniformity globally regarding protocol, ethics and direction among other issues, the schools are not training their students well enough to really replace you in that regard. You will likely have more advantage in the field learning these things than the students in the career pipeline. There are just too many kinks to be worked out. Humans have yet to master many of the more critical issues like the human brain, equitably distribute wealth and work in light of major technological advances, creating unlimited energy and water, creating unlimited amount of food, artificial womb births among other things to really teach the AI/robots/whatever to replace humans never mind colonize other planets in most people’s lifetimes at this moment.
At this point, learning the basics of coding and a major AI application likely will be enough of a basis to adapt further if one chooses to and need to. Economic priorities in this day and age often dictation the direction and speed of technological deployments. Based on the current economic model, people need to be gainfully employed in order to spend. If no one can afford to buy anything, what is the point of making a whole bunch of stuff that no one can afford to buy? Conversely if everyone gets a universal basic income distribution, what motivation do people have to contribute to society? When the majority of people have too much time on their hands, they may self-actualize to a degree that some people may not like……I doubt that is what everyone wants to see when the infrastructure to defuse such social contract related pressures can not be easily, systematically defused.”