Monthly trends to bet against: October 2026? The Permanent Contrarian’s view on living life, education, geopolitics, career and financial freedom.

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  1. GOAT chase cards are a safe harbor. Nope. A GOAT comes and goes. If there is no money promoting a GOAT, what incentives do the millions who are economically impacted by the GOAT economy have to promote unmonetizeable GOATs. Don’t be silly. It’s all about the cheddar, Bob.
  2. Democratic US Midterm elections win. Soft no with prejudice. The Caucasian identity crisis in a party possibly influenced by AOC will minimize white guilty just enough for a few to switch votes and 2x swing with momentum.
  3. Jordan is the GOAT. No. This is kind of like every Hollywood story that’s non-historically relevant biography. Catch if you can’t or get bumpy real American gangster. Somethings are just not real and you won’t realize it’s not real until you put the holistic, societal benefit analytics on it.  This gets amplified when you have a readily available alternative that you later discover to be the real McCoy. 
  4. Democrat winning the Texas Senate race. No. As explained in my previous post, the Republicans will likely heavily defend that seat that was almost exclusively Republican to begin with. The debate is even a debate because of internal quarrel. The guy that lost the primary was potentially like, “but I am like 99.35% voting with Trump on everything.”
  5. Dodgers winning 2026 World Series. No. It will take another series of black swan events for this to happen. With Ohtani likely not winning MVP and not pitching this season and all their injuries and likely facing the Yankees in the World Series, it’s most likely not going to happen.
  6. A non-Sixers team winning 2027 NBA Finals. No. With the exception of the Sixers, every NBA superpower team is either comparatively fragment or gotten comparatively weaker. The league can’t be too blatant with favoritism but a small edge will allow Sixers win. The NBA is in existential mood right now. They literally have almost a no GOAT pipeline to speak of after LeBron retires. 
  7. The Giant Lizard closing the gap on AI. No. The hardware and software issues are just the superficial part of this. The bigger issue is these companies are not allowed to innovate nor incorporate global ideas that actually work. The halo effect of disappearing all those people led even more wealth and talents leaving. 
  8. The Giant Lizard’s 2026 huge stimulus will be a net positive. No. Where you think these people are going to spend their monies they earned from working on these big state funded tofu infrastructures at? Either they save into the bank, get their money confiscated or both. What you think the state will do with the money? 
  9. The Democrats will continue to strive in its current form. No. The ideological gap within the party is getting worse. Either they change and put the small percentage of loud and vocal membership on lower volumes or they are likely going to suffer even more defeats. If MAGA government Trump existed in any prior periods within the last two hundred years, the other party would have easily won. Because the Democrats are having gender and other confirmation bias identification bifurcation deficiency and related potential issues, MAGA could almost do all the wrongs and still win. 
  10. Harvard-led Ivy League will continue to be the most prestigious grouping of universities in the world. No. The world is for the taking and STEM along with liberal arts and other skills are needed to create a competitive workforce with all-around talents suitable for the AI work. The Ivy though it tries to expand into STEM, schools like MIT is just more suited for it plus social science is actually science best suited for a non-liberal arts type of school. Reputation is a double-edged sword. The liberal arts thing will stick with the Ivy until they are no longer the Ivies.

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