NBA expansion teams in Mexico City played in nearby Cuernavaca and Kansas City in the 2030s after Seattle and Las Vegas? The Permanent Contrarian’s view on investing in alternative assets.

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Cuernavaca is only about 50 miles south from Mexico City and has an altitude of about 5,000 versus approximately 7,400 feet altitude for Mexico City. The altitude for Cuernavaca is less than that of Denver where the Denver Nuggets play their home games at. Cuernavaca already has a women’s soccer team playing in Mexico’s top-tier league. The Cruz Azul Femenil playing in front of thousands at the Estadio Centenario. Ironically, this team was located in Mexico City just a season ago. Cuernavaca is a small landlocked state, however, it borders three other states and Mexico City. This allows a team located in Cuernavaca to have tens of millions of potential fans within one to two hour  driving distance to its stadium. Obviously the NBA is now exploring franchises in Seattle and Las Vegas right now which probably takes priority at the moment. It will likely take three to four years for the two new franchises to start their first season in the NBA. It will take a few years for the NBA to fully integrate the two new teams (31st and 32nd in the NBA) into the NBA system. Hence this most likely means an NBA franchise will most likely occur around the late 2030s to early 2040s. The other reason why this decision will likely take some time to make is the NBA usually expand in pairs. 

I think the most likely expansion teams after Las Vegas and Seattle will be Kansas City, Missouri which use to have an NBA team. The city also has a very successful NFL team in the Chiefs and a championship MLB team in the Royals. St. Louis another major city in the state use to have an NBA team as well and is only about three driving hours away from Kansas City. Basketball in the United States and worldwide is a massive, rapidly growing sport. If basketball as a sport via the NBA wants to one day challenge soccer for the number one spot, Latin America is most likely the battle ground. Getting an NBA team in Mexico City even if the actual games are played in a nearby city probably makes the most sense. After all, many US-based professional sports team name their teams based on one city and actually play their home games in a nearby city such as the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Angels. Mexico has the second largest GDP in all of Latin America and largest when you exclude countries where Spanish is not the official language. Yes, financing, safety, desirability and logistics need to be worked on if NBA is serious about an expansion team in Mexico, however, I think Mexico and the NBA likely will be able to overcome all these issues relatively easily. 

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Here is what I previously posted about this and similar topic(s):

“I’m not worried about the Knicks financially for one bit even if they have to spend to get to whatever apron it gets to. A good Knicks team will most likely make a lot of money and increase team valuation significantly. I see the Knicks team valuation 10Xing within a few decades given the likely expansion of the NBA internationally especially with development of travel technology that may also be very safe that will decrease travel times exponentially. I foresee a Mexico City franchise and possibly a franchise or two in Western Europe in the next two decades. I also believe we are in the renaissance of new sports and new concepts in general where basketball in general will likely be a great beneficiary of that with its rapid global growth. Baseball as a sport appears to be growing significantly globally. The World Baseball Classic becoming popular, baseball’s return to the Olympics and the fact that baseball is spreading from Asia bellwether pop culture centers like Japan, South Korea and Japan into Southeast Asia is a very important trend for the sport. Because baseball and cricket are very similar, there is a good chance it could get a piece of that 2.5 billion fan market.

All this to say is that because the much larger pie for all, I think rookie cards of these four players are good value. I tend to think baseball has the highest career longevity of all the sports for players who are good at what they do. It is not exceptionally uncommon to see baseball players in the MLB play to their mid 40s. However, the players who play to their mid 40s may likely are chasing something record wise. Many of these players start in the league in their very early 20s. Hence when I am buying rookie cards of new MLB players, I typically look for guys who make to the league early, play a premium position, has height and can either hit or pitching or both with power. Of course I look at their minor league stats as well to analyze their potentials. And yes, because my rookie cards pipeline strategy also entails maximizing upside risk and with almost insignificant downside risk when I can buy maybe a box of 4,000 of inderrated new player rookie cards for less than 100 dollars, I am able to also get rookie cards of Patrick Mahomes, Steph Curry and for sure Aaron Judge when they first came out. Of course, most of these cards won’t be worth the storage cost after a while within a given time range, hence every year I either donate those cards or give them away to friends.”