I personally think there are two major market crashes coming: Bitcoin and those who are betting on Paxton to lose and Talarico to win the Senate. Abbott won’t endorse Paxton outright but does lots of quasi-grey area half-screens to help Paxton win like hosting get out of the vote rallies just a day before Paxton in the same spot to warm-up the crowd for him overtly surreptitiously. If you believe that’s not an endorsement then you probably also believe Bitcoin will hit a million before it hit $10k. A lot of these election analysis hinges on what suburban Texas women do which many of these pundits believe will vote for Talarico. That’s probably one of their biggest misunderstanding about how this race turnout. Traditionally, suburban women have been a“highly fluid” voter base. People talk about reproductive health especially in conservative states but fail to emphasis this group’s dislike for 100 different gender classifications, gender neutral restrooms and let’s not forget men playing in women’s sports.
If that wasn’t enough, people who never understood how relationships work forget it’s never the I love you honey that make a long-term relationship work, it’s honey, we don’t have enough money to pay for xyz sob resolution which usually require a strong economy and good paying jobs to resolve. Democrats may not be stupid, but it’s the economy stupid. People want to live free and good lives, a good economy is essential to modern day happiness. Speaking of happiness, I believe the US could benefit greatly by implementing tax holidays on 401(k) withdrawals. To stimulate the economy, this is precisely what is needed. People don’t want to wait until you no longer have the energy to enjoy life before they can take money out of their accounts. It is absolutely true investing in the current US economy is an excellent idea and historically speaking, such investments in US equity markets usually worked out extremely well for investors in the long term.
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Which one happens first: Bitcoin drop below $10K, Texas turn blue or a mid-life-tax-free 401(k) withdrawal economic stimulus.
Of course there must be rules and regulations regarding such a holiday to protect both the holder of the retirement account and the economy. I do think this scheme if it becomes legalized will reduce many ills in this society including crime as many criminal events happen when people are tired and disgruntled with their lives and all it takes is a bad mood or a momentary lapse in judgment. The other thing that’s good about this is reducing windfall inheritances. When such withdrawals can be anticipated, more thoughts and process will be put into place when spending such funds reducing impulsive, stupid and hedonistic squandering which typically have a diminishing marginal utility for all involved including society. I believe Bitcoin has lost much of its practical application advantages due to the increase use of other digital payment methods and that its blockchain feature may have been innovative, it has now been implemented by many other applications taking away much of its advantages.
I think Bitcoin prices will eventually self-correct and go back to much lower levels especially when legislations come knocking. Contrary to popular belief, I believe regulations will effectively limit much of Bitcoin’s speculatively functionalities especially when nations start to heavily push for their own digital currencies which will likely be accompanied with alliance networks that allow more ease of transaction among other sovereign backed digital currencies. Texas likely won’t turn significantly blue any time within the next three decades due to Texas’ core moral values and pro business Republicans values translating into real economic development and growth in the state. One look at California Texans don’t want to look again. I believe the 401(k) withdrawal tax holidays will likely not happen any time soon though I believe conversations about this could be happening some time in the near future.