Prospecting rookie cards: What happens to the status of existing GOATs who already retired when game rules change? The Permanent Contrarian’s view on investing in alternative assets.

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The answer is obviously it depends but in general, many non-safety related rule changes are meant to make the game more entertaining. To put it simply, people like winners even when they temporarily root for the underdog. When the underdog stop winning, people look at them differently. Conversely, when the underdog becomes the big dog, people will temporarily not root for them any more but eventually they will come around and admire their greatness. One of the biggest reasons why GOAT is no longer the GOAT is because of rule changes. As soon as a new record is broken, future media coverage will talk extensively about the new record holder and the old record holder becomes just a line item on a list. The reality is almost every single card you buy during the mid to highest peak of a non-GOATesque player’s career will likely end up worth a lot less than what you paid for both nominally, inflation adjusted and when opportunity cost is taken into account.  There is almost no exception to this trope of a rule that occurs every single year beginning with their overhyped and overpriced rookie cards when they were first introduced. 

The prices on those just go downhill from there year after year unless the player who is on that card continues to meet or exceed expectations year after year. Even then they have to be marketable as a player/celebrity, have a good perceived public image and all of that. You know what many sports fans like? They like high-scoring, fast pace actions and seeing records being broken. True, some like elite defenses too but not as much as they like seeing high-octane offenses. The NBA is known to change game rules to expand the sport. One prominent rule change they did was introducing the three-point shot in the late 1970s. They also encouraged dunking during the same period. In the 2000s they also eliminated hand-checking which made scoring relatively easier. NFL did similar things with passer protection, 5-yard contact and two-point conversion rule changes throughout the years.

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Prospecting rookie cards: What happens to the status of existing GOATs who already retired when game rules change. 

MLB, which probably did the least in this department still helped scoring by putting restrictions on pitching and defenses along with introducing favorable rules for the DH position. A record is a record regardless whatever nuances is being put into it. Yes, Bonds is not in the Baseball Hall of Fame now and yes they try to put an asterisk on his record, but no, his record still stands. They vacate wins and championships/bowl wins in NCAA/FBS but those statistics are still shown and reported on. Marketability is only a coefficient just like a 1/1 RPA is only a multiplier. Are the 1/1 RPA of non-GOATesque players actually worth that much in the long-run? The GOAT/GOATesque RPAs can cost tens of millions, the same type of cards featuring a non-GOATesque may only be worth .0000000001% of that. The tiniest difference in feature frequently can mean huge pricing differences. What happened when grading costs from major grading companies became somewhat cost prohibitive? What happened to the downstream market for the less than 30 dollar cards? 

Momentum, perceived slight differences and other impacts on the peripheral impact card valuation tremendously. At the end of the day, it’s just economics. When I look at the landscape of the entire GOAT/GOATesque seen, there is realistic only one person who is likely going to withstand the test of time within the next 100 years. LeBron joined the Philly at the right time at the American 250th birthday in a city that essentially created the new America with a tenacious attitude that America was built upon with its economy and sporting teams on the rise. Pennsylvania has some of the best universities in the world and many of these universities are on the rise. LeBron realistically will have the incentive and backing from the league to play for at least five more years. The NBA doesn’t have a replacement for LeBron yet and literally there is literally no one who is alive right now that could eventually join the NBA that could replace LeBron right now. 

LeBron playing on the same team and/or playing in the NBA while his two sons are a wholesome moment in sports history and will have great impacts on the future development of certain demographic groups that have been some of the lowest performing, subsidy heavy groups in US history. Physically LeBron can probably play for another 10 years at a starter level. When you think about the amount of championships and points that LeBron can obtain in the next three to five years, you will come to realize LeBron’s career and records are probably irreplicable. With all the fluff why LeBron is disliked, when you actually examine it all closely, you will come to the realization he is in many aspects as clean as a public figure can be image wise even if he talked about party/parties or weighted into politics. Americans like fast-pace action and they love underdogs with American associations. This is why I also think soccer will never truly take off in America within the next 50 years and Ronaldo will be the more GOATesque over Messi even though I believe there is no solid consensus GOAT in that sport due to having so many leagues playing in so many different tournaments.