Will the New York Knicks led by Villanova’s Nova Knicks Jalen Brunson defeat the San Antonio Spurs led by Victor Wembanyama (Wemby) to win the 2025-2026 season NBA Finals championship? The Permanent Contrarian’s view on investing in alternative assets.

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I still believe the OKC Thunders were the easier team for the Knicks to defeat in the 2025-2026 NBA Finals due to their injury issues. With that being said, the Spurs seems to be so exhausted from playing four more playoff games than the Knicks did this year. The Spurs will have to fly home or ride the bus for seven hours back to San Antonio to face the Knicks in just a little over three days after concluding the previous playoff series. Unlike the fully rested and extremely energetic Knicks with almost everyone who is somebody rooting for it to win, the Spurs have two key players who just recovered from injuries in Fox and Harper. The Knicks have much more playoff experience and finishing the Finals for New York is probably a life and career changing event for everyone on the team. Wemby, Castle and the Spurs’ core rotation played a lot of minutes due to the very short rotation. The Spurs also allows five more points per game than Knicks though Spurs scores about 5 more in away games. Knicks are typically make more 3-point field goals per game and make threes at a higher percentage.

KAT the center can stretch the floor extremely well as probably the best shooting big man in the game today something Wemby can’t match at this point. KAT is also heavier than Wemby but still moves quite well. Because the Knicks already have an elite defensive center in Robinson, they can afford for KAT to stretch Wemby out. Because the Spurs depend on Wemby so much on offense and defense, this strategy will be devastating for the Spurs. Any way you look at the rosters of the two team, besides a debatable about whether KAT or Wemby are better right now as players, every other starting position the Knicks have the better player playing. Knicks top reserves are also notably better in almost all aspects than that of Spurs. Spurs has no other legitimate rim protecting centers besides Wemby. Wemby averages about 29 points in the regular season but frequently play around 40 minute games in the playoffs. An elite defender like Robinson and a good defender plus one of the best 3-point shooting big man in the game will probably just be overwhelming. Plus the Knicks have a lot of 3-and-D guys.

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Why do I think the New York Knicks will win this year’s NBA Finals?

Anyone who played sports or watched sports probably know how much exhaustion affect a player’s performance. Exhaustion is not only physical but mental as well. I estimate due to Spurs’ intense playoff schedule, top heavy lineup and short rotation, it will probably only be 90% of who they are during Game 1 of the 2025-2026 NBA Finals. Knicks on the other hand will be 100% themselves due to enormous incentives to bring a championship to New York and how well-rested they are. Game 2 Spurs will probably be 95% themselves, the Knicks will probably still at 100%. I think the Knicks will most likely win Game 1. Knicks will have a greater than 50% to win Game 2. Knicks will be the favorite in this Finals in any home game. 

Looking back to the 1999 NBA Finals when the 8th seed Knicks faced top seeded Spurs, it was literally David versus Goliath. Spurs had two all-time greats in Duncan and Robinson, one of the greatest coaches in NBA history in Popovich, one of the best 3-point shooters in NBA history Steve Kerr, some of the best defenders in the game versus a Knicks team at the time basically full of non-hall of famers with their one hall of famer Ewing who was injured and did not play in that Finals. What is interesting was that even under those circumstances that Knicks team still won a game in the series and lost another game by just one point, both of which happened in Madison Square Garden. I think the bright lights of New York has something to do with it. The Spurs point scored in away and home games are essentially the same yet the Knicks score over five points more at home versus away. The Knicks are out scoring and allowing less points than the Spurs during this year’s playoffs.

This 2025-2026 Knicks team is much different than the one from the 1998-1999 NBA season. Not only are they not the underdogs, they are straight up alphas and sigmas. Jalen Brunson could become a 100 anniversary player in the future and likely a borderline future hall of famer already. KAT is already a likely future hall of famer. Mike Brown is the much better coach in terms of experience and accolades hands down in this match up. If he wins a championship as the head coach, he will most likely become a future hall of famer himself after coaching a few more years. With each NBA Finals game this year paced around two days apart, in a seven game series, the well rested Knicks will have a significant advantage. I think there will be a couple of major winners from Knicks winning the championship. Obviously Knicks fans are one of the biggest winners. The other big winners are Jalen Brunson, Jalen Brunson cards collectors and Villanova University. If the Knicks wins the Finals this year, Jalen Brunson will be like Joe Namath. Villanova University will probably be the biggest winner from all of this. The Knicks being televised all the time get lots of public exposure, educational institutions typically don’t get as much public exposure as professional sports teams. However, Villanova with all of its legendary underdog championships, a large and growing endowment, well-ranked, acquisition of multiple campuses, the first North America Catholic Pope, the Villanova Knicks and let’s say a Knicks championship in a few weeks will probably help Villanova become a much elite university with more notoriety, resources and academic prestige due to having more resources to spend on academic and research related endeavors. It could push Villanova to the top by becoming the best Catholic university in the world and having Augustinian values as an important part of the community. If the Knicks win, the Villanova Knicks could get better contracts in the futures and either the Knicks or other teams will be looking for Villanova players just like many employers look to hire Villanova students. Spurs is a young team that may have opportunities in the future to win the Finals, however, this is likely not the year for them to win it all.